ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQ
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Against Malaria Foundation
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ChadDRCGuineaNigeriaNigeriaSouth SudanTogoUganda
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Supplemental calculations for the insecticide resistance adjustmentunittypeOverallGF statesPMI states
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from "Main calcs" sheet for visibility)
xbenchmark
main-4.814.622.816.813.37.28.815.6
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Insecticide resistance for standard nets
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Resistance to pyrethroid insecticides
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Average mosquito mortality rate found in pyrethroid bioassays (2015-2019)%input-24%52%70%75%75%52%23%44%
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Average year pyrethroid bioassays were conductedyearinput-20152017201720172017202020152016
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Expected year of ITN distributionyearinput-20262024202520232023202320232023
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Number of years between bioassay data collection and the expected year of ITN distribution#calc-117866387
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Expected annual change in mosquito mortality rates over timepptinput-0.8%--------
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Estimated change in mosquito mortality rates between bioassay data collection and the expected year of ITN distribution%calc--9%-6%-7%-5%-5%-3%-6%-6%
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Estimated mosquito mortality rate in the year of ITN distribution%calc-14%46%63%70%70%49%17%38%
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Role of insecticide in the protective effect of nets
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Proportion of the protective effect of ITNs that is due to the physical barrier of the net%input27%--------
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Proportion of the protective effect of ITNs that is due to pyrethroid insecticide%calc73%--------
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ITN effectiveness compared to trial contexts
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Effectiveness of ITNs in upcoming distributions relative to nets in studies included in Cochrane reviews%calc-38%60%73%78%78%63%39%55%
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Reduction in effectiveness caused by resistance to pyrethroid insecticide%calc-62%40%27%22%22%37%61%45%
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Insecticide resistance for PBO nets
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Resistance to pyrethroid insecticides plus a piperonyl-butoxide (PBO) synergist
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Average mosquito mortality rate found in bioassays of pyrethroid plus PBO (2015-2019)%input-55%96%90%93%93%96%93%95%
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Average mosquito mortality rate found in the same bioassays of pyrethroid only%input-43%56%60%69%69%56%11%51%
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Initial proportion of resistance that remains when using PBO%calc-80%9%26%24%24%10%8%9%
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Reduction in effectiveness due to insecticide resistance in areas where PBO nets are effective%calc-50%4%7%5%5%4%5%4%
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External validity adjustments for country representativeness
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Proportion of bioassay test sites with confirmed pyrethroid insecticide resistance (2015-2019)%input-100%81%76%62%62%89%100%99%
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Proportion of test sites detected to have relevant resistance mechanism (2015-2019)%input-71%100%79%79%79%92%79%83%
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Estimated proportion of country where PBO nets are more effective than standard ITNs%calc-71%81%61%49%49%81%79%82%
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Insecticide resistance for Dual AI nets
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Resistance to insecticides used in Dual AI nets
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Reduction in effectiveness due to insecticide resistance with chlorfenapyr nets%input0%--------
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Reduction in effectiveness due to insecticide resistance with other Dual AI nets%calc-62%40%27%22%22%37%61%45%
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Insecticide resistance adjustment
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Breakdown of nets purchased
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Expected proportion of standard ITNs purchased for distributions%input-70%0%70%0%0%81%50%0%
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Expected proportion of PBO nets purchased for distributions%input-30%50%30%100%100%19%50%100%
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Expected proportion of chlorfenapyr nets purchased for distributions%input-0%45%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Expected proportion of other Dual AI nets purchased for distributions%input-0%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Final net breakdown
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Proportion of nets that are standard nets%calc-70%0%70%0%0%81%50%0%
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Proportion of nets that are PBO nets distributed to areas where PBO nets are effective
%calc-30%50%30%49%49%19%50%82%
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Proportion of nets that are PBO nets distributed to areas where PBO nets are not effective
%calc-0%0%0%51%51%0%0%18%
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Proportion of nets that are chlorfenapyr nets%calc-0%45%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Proportion of nets that are other Dual AI nets%calc-0%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Insecticide resistance adjustment by net type
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Adjustment for standard nets%calc--62%-40%-27%-22%-22%-37%-61%-45%
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Adjustment for PBO nets distributed to areas where PBO nets are effective%calc--50%-4%-7%-5%-5%-4%-5%-4%
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Adjustment for PBO nets distributed to areas where PBO nets are not effective%calc--62%-40%-27%-22%-22%-37%-61%-45%
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Adjustment for chlorfenapyr nets%calc-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Adjustment for other Dual AI nets%calc--62%-40%-27%-22%-22%-37%-61%-45%
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Final insecticide resistance adjustment incorporating Dual AI nets
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Adjustment for insecticide resistance%calc--59%-4%-21%-14%-14%-31%-33%-11%
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