ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQ
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Against Malaria Foundation
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ChadDRCGuineaNigeriaNigeriaSouth SudanTogoUganda
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Main calculationsunittypeOverallGF statesPMI states
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from below for visibility)xcashmain-4.814.522.616.713.27.18.715.5
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Costs
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GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input$1,000,000--------
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Cost breakdown
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Percentage of total costs covered by the grantee%input-96%94%96%96%96%94%96%96%
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Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors%input-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Percentage of total costs covered by domestic governments%input-4%6%4%4%4%6%4%4%
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Total costs
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Total spending by all contributors$calc-$1,045,714$1,058,303$1,045,714$1,040,217$1,040,217$1,067,466$1,042,129$1,046,756
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Total spending attributable to different actors
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Total spending contributed by grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Total spending contributed by other philanthropic actors$calc-$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0
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Total spending contributed by domestic governments$calc-$45,714$58,303$45,714$40,217$40,217$67,466$42,129$46,756
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Upstream / downstream spending
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Total spending causally upstream of donations to grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Total spending causally downstream of donations to grantee$calc-$45,714$58,303$45,714$40,217$40,217$67,466$42,129$46,756
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Cost per net
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Total cost per insecticide-treated net (ITN) distributed$input-$3.94$5.85$3.94$4.34$4.34$5.33$3.67$4.45
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Upstream costs per ITN distributed$calc-$3.77$5.53$3.77$4.17$4.17$4.99$3.52$4.25
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Outputs
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Net usage
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Number of nets distributed#calc-265,554180,896265,554239,617239,617200,341284,250235,489
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Proportion of distributed nets that were used in trials from the Pryce et al. 2018 meta-analysis%input70%--------
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Adjustment for net usage in program contexts%input-10%--------
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Proportion of distributed nets that are used in program contexts%calc63%--------
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Number of nets used#calc-167,299113,965167,299150,958150,958126,215179,077148,358
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Net coverage
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Number of people sleeping under each used net#input-1.92.22.01.91.91.91.71.8
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Total people sleeping under distributed nets#calc-323,967245,154333,085292,324292,324244,409308,305261,859
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Effective coverage years provided per net#supp-2.01.22.02.01.31.32.02.0
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Total person-years of effective coverage provided#calc-636,792292,350654,714574,594385,025310,159606,007514,712
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Age distribution of population
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Total national population#input-16,398,86087,670,44412,643,149214,823,786214,823,7869,282,9637,921,52741,117,856
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National population under age 5#input-3,332,66713,629,4652,143,39533,521,63833,521,6381,516,3751,114,8557,089,750
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National population age 5-14#input-4,977,42124,065,6803,569,79560,226,43760,226,4372,652,1282,032,78111,987,722
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Proportion of population under age 5#calc-20%16%17%16%16%16%14%17%
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Proportion of population age 5-14#calc-30%27%28%28%28%29%26%29%
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Proportion of population over age 14#calc-49%57%55%56%56%55%60%54%
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Net coverage by age group
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Person-years of net coverage provided among people under age 5#calc-129,41245,449110,99489,66160,08050,66585,28888,749
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Person-years of net coverage provided among people age 5-14#calc-193,28180,251184,859161,089107,94388,612155,510150,062
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Person-years of net coverage provided among people over age 14#calc-314,099166,650358,862323,844217,002170,882365,209275,901
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Outcomes
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Mortality reduction among people under age 5
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Reduction in malaria incidence for children under age 5 receiving nets found in the Pryce et al. 2018 meta-analysis%input45%--------
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Implied reduction in malaria incidence for people under age 5 sleeping under nets%calc64%--------
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Internal validity adjustment%input-5%--------
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External validity adjustment%input-5%--------
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Adjustment for insecticide resistance%supp--59%-4%-21%-14%-14%-31%-33%-11%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people under age 5 sleeping under nets%calc-24%56%46%50%50%40%39%51%
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Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%input100%--------
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Expected reduction in malaria mortality among people under age 5 sleeping under nets%calc-24%56%46%50%50%40%39%51%
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Annual malaria mortality rate among 1-59-month-olds (2019)%supp-0.13%0.31%0.37%0.27%0.29%0.25%0.16%0.24%
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Indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death#input0.75--------
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Total malaria-attributable mortality rate (including direct and indirect malaria deaths)%calc-0.23%0.53%0.64%0.47%0.51%0.44%0.29%0.41%
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Malaria-attributable mortality reduction as a result of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC)pptsupp-0.09%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.14%0.04%0.07%0.00%
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Total malaria-attributable mortality rate among 1-59-month-olds (adjusted for SMC)%calc-0.14%0.53%0.64%0.41%0.37%0.40%0.22%0.41%
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Baseline proportion of 1-59-month-old children sleeping under nets%input-31%59%59%51%47%49%80%70%
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Total malaria-attributable mortality rate among 1-59-month-olds in the absence of nets%calc-0.15%0.80%0.88%0.55%0.48%0.50%0.31%0.64%
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Total deaths averted among people under age 5#calc-47203449248145101104294
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Mortality reduction among people age 5 and older
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Malaria deaths among people under age 5 per year#input-4,52644,0788,18144,91930,0154,0101,88017,386
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Total malaria deaths per year across all age groups#input-7,19457,16011,33777,64855,7535,1095,43622,587
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Malaria deaths among people age 5 and older#calc-2,66813,0823,15532,72825,7381,0993,5565,201
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Number of malaria deaths among people age 5 and older per malaria death among people under age 5%calc-0.590.300.390.730.860.271.890.30
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Relative efficacy of ITNs for reducing mortality of people age 5 and older%input80%--------
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Total deaths averted among people age 5 and older#calc-2248139144992215770
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Malaria incidence reduction among people under age 15
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Malaria incidence among people under age 5 in the absence of a distribution%supp-24%131%98%83%99%74%106%103%
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Malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14 in the absence of a distribution%supp-24%53%41%36%42%31%45%43%
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Reduction in malaria incidence among people under age 5 sleeping under netspptcalc-6%73%45%42%50%30%41%53%
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Reduction in malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14 sleeping under netspptcalc-6%30%19%18%21%13%17%22%
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Malaria cases averted among people under age 5#calc-7,42833,29549,99537,33529,75914,97035,35346,764
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Malaria cases averted among people age 5 to 14#calc-11,09423,97034,74529,18522,74711,09827,04033,058
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Long-term income increases for people under age 15
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Increase in annual income per malaria case averted among people under age 15%input0.6%--------
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Adjusted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.006--------
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Average number of years between nets being distributed and the beginning of long term benefits#input10--------
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Discount rate for future benefits%input4.0%--------
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Discounted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.00--------