| A | C | D | E | F | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | AG | AH | AI | AJ | AK | AL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | State | EVs | 2012 DEM | 2012 GOP | 2012 Margin | Last Poll | Forecast | Trends | Gains | Flip? | RESULT | swing | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Nebraska CD3 | 1 | 27.9% | 70.6% | -42.6% | IMPUTED | -20.8% | ▼ | -46.3% | -1.8% | "And the pundits will eat the biggest banquet of Crow since 1948", RodCrosby, September 2016 I'm sorry for all those who lost money listening to an arrogant poltroon, who's just destroyed his own site. Remember VIPA, anyone? I'm £50,000 up tonight. Poster of the Decade. I predict the future. I also deduce the past.... Too tough for you? Sam Wang eats bugs. He was probably weaned on them. Another arrogant twerp, who tried to ban any opinion contrary to his own. Can the dull-eyed Sky autocue dollies stop pretending to be 'journalists'?, roaming America with their nonsense obsessions that Trump insults 'wimmin' and is a 'waycist', etc. America is a free country, and you hate it. The UK is gripped in a terminal leftoid, ethnoid psychosis. "Celebrating Diversity" and all that shit is the equivalent of the defendants applauding their own death sentences at the Moscow Show Trials of the 1930s. I pity you. Find your brains again. Stop echoing each other, and being craven followers of the MSM, and of the eternal manipulators. When I contemplate the end of my life, I hope I never have to face the fact that I'm a moral coward (and have no hair). Love one other. Believe in yourselves. The birds are perhaps the only creatures that are truly free. And I have joined them... | Version 1.7 | Days to Election | tell foxinsoxuk to stop lying. .. I never predicted a Clinton win, as any fule can see... The polls and others may have predicted it. I never did. The analysis in the green box was posted on PB on Monday/Tuesday.... | 0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
4 | Maine CD2 | 1 | 52.9% | 44.4% | 8.6% | IMPUTED | -6.7% | ▲ | GOP GAIN | -54.9% | -31.7% | RodCrosby | -3347 | ||||||||||||||||||||
5 | California | 55 | 60.2% | 37.1% | 23.1% | 0.0% | ▲ | -36.4% | -29.8% | 02/11/2016 | -0.44% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Texas | 38 | 41.4% | 57.2% | -15.8% | 0.0% | ▼ | -42.2% | -13.2% | 10.04% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Florida | 29 | 50.0% | 49.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | -31.8% | -16.3% | Source: | HuffPost Pollster CSS feeds. | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | New York | 29 | 63.4% | 35.2% | 28.2% | 0.0% | ▲ | -35.7% | -31.9% | http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-general-election | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | Pennsylvania | 20 | 52.0% | 46.6% | 5.4% | 0.0% | ▲ | -29.8% | -17.6% | They are selective of only the most 'credible' polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Illinois | 20 | 57.6% | 40.7% | 16.9% | 0.0% | ▲ | -29.8% | -23.3% | Median of the lead is used, following Wang of PEC | |||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Ohio | 18 | 50.7% | 47.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% | ▲ | -26.9% | -14.9% | http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/06/a-nonpartisan-statistical-approach-to-rasmussen-data/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Georgia | 16 | 45.5% | 53.3% | -7.8% | 0.0% | ▼ | -27.7% | -9.9% | Remember, the median will change relatively slowly...! | |||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Michigan | 16 | 54.2% | 44.7% | 9.5% | 0.0% | ▲ | -25.6% | -17.6% | COMMENTARY: ***FURTHER TIGHTENING 7/11/16*** Polls continue to tighten, generally in Trump's favour.... A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high. INTERESTING FACT: you have to go back to 1904 to find a swing in favour of a two-term (or more) incumbent party, and that was under a sitting president, Teddy Roosevelt. The median swing against is about 5%, the lowest 1.2% in 1944, against FDR. The lowest swing against the incumbent party in an open election was 3.9% in 1928. Clinton is no FDR or Bull Moose, so perhaps the polls are wrong... Basically, if there's a 2% shy-Trump factor (i.e. +1% versus Clinton, not at all outlandish), he's one state - any state - away from victory. If the shy-Trump factor is 2.5%, then toss a coin... ENDORA still not quite the done-deal for President, methinks... (^_-) | INSTRUCTIONS: this sheet updates automatically with the latest polls, and sorts the states by predicted margin. Where no polling exists, the 2012 result is carried over. Long Trend arrows are indicated (from the 2012 result), as well as a sparkline of the most recent polls, for short trend analysis. A meta-margin and swing state are calculated. Meta-Margin is the margin of the closest state that would change the predicted winner in the Electoral College, if it and all closer states changed hands. Current swing states (forecast margin <10%) are indicated in black. USER INPUTS: PollDays can be altered, to give some indication of the race over time (See also the History tab). The Flip column (enter an "X", or anything) flips a state from the current forecast to calculate YOUR Custom forecast, towards the bottom of the sheet. [The main FORECAST won't change] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | North Carolina | 15 | 48.4% | 50.4% | -2.0% | 0.0% | ▼ | -18.9% | -8.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | New Jersey | 14 | 58.4% | 40.6% | 17.8% | 0.0% | ▲ | -19.6% | -18.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | Virginia | 13 | 51.2% | 47.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% | ▲ | -20.6% | -12.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Washington | 12 | 56.2% | 41.3% | 14.9% | 0.0% | ▲ | -26.2% | -20.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Tennessee | 11 | 39.1% | 59.5% | -20.4% | 0.0% | ▼ | -20.5% | -0.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | Indiana | 11 | 43.9% | 54.1% | -10.2% | 0.0% | ▼ | -21.6% | -5.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Arizona | 11 | 44.6% | 53.7% | -9.1% | 0.0% | ▼ | -18.6% | -4.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Massachusetts | 11 | 60.7% | 37.5% | 23.1% | 0.0% | ▲ | -14.7% | -18.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | Missouri | 10 | 44.4% | 53.8% | -9.4% | 0.0% | ▼ | -9.0% | 0.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Wisconsin | 10 | 52.8% | 45.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% | ▲ | -19.0% | -13.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | Minnesota | 10 | 52.7% | 45.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% | ▲ | -18.1% | -12.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | Maryland | 10 | 62.0% | 35.9% | 26.1% | 0.0% | ▲ | -14.3% | -20.2% | https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Gyro2.mp4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | Alabama | 9 | 38.4% | 60.6% | -22.2% | 0.0% | ▼ | -2.1% | 10.0% | DEM | GOP | TCTC | |||||||||||||||||||||
27 | South Carolina | 9 | 44.1% | 54.6% | -10.5% | 0.0% | ▼ | -5.2% | 2.6% | last | |||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | Colorado | 9 | 51.5% | 46.1% | 5.4% | 0.0% | ▲ | -3.6% | -4.5% | FORECAST | 6 | 2 | 530 | Popular Vote poll-margin sparkline | 30-days | 0.0% | |||||||||||||||||
29 | Kentucky | 8 | 37.8% | 60.5% | -22.7% | 0.0% | ▼ | -8.6% | 7.0% | 14-days | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | Louisiana | 8 | 40.6% | 57.8% | -17.2% | 0.0% | ▼ | -9.4% | 3.9% | PV lead | 7-days | 0.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
31 | Oklahoma | 7 | 33.2% | 66.8% | -33.5% | 0.0% | ▼ | x | -10.5% | 11.5% | 3-days | 0.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
32 | Oregon | 7 | 54.2% | 42.2% | 12.1% | 0.0% | ▲ | x | -1.2% | -6.6% | NB: NOT MY "PREDICTION..." - JUST THE POLLS | outliers shown in bold | now | ||||||||||||||||||||
33 | Connecticut | 7 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 17.3% | 0.0% | ▲ | x | -0.2% | -8.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | Utah | 6 | 24.8% | 72.8% | -48.0% | 0.0% | ▼ | x | -3.7% | 22.2% | to REVERSE the above forecast winner | "He doesn't care. They sense it. He's totally free from all convention and all artifice. He's a clown, a sage, a prankster, and the uncle you don't bring into polite company, all rolled into one. And they love him for it..." RodCrosby, 25th February 2016 | |||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Arkansas | 6 | 36.9% | 60.6% | -23.7% | 0.0% | ▼ | 2.4% | 13.0% | With a margin of | 0.0% | New Jersey | is the swing state,giving | 272 | EVs to | Trump | for a win | ||||||||||||||||
36 | Kansas | 6 | 38.0% | 59.7% | -21.7% | 0.0% | ▼ | -0.8% | 10.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | Mississippi | 6 | 43.8% | 55.3% | -11.5% | 0.0% | ▼ | 8.2% | 9.9% | requiring | 11 | state gains, from the current forecast, to win the Presidency | |||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Iowa | 6 | 52.0% | 46.2% | 5.8% | 0.0% | ▲ | 5.3% | -0.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Nevada | 6 | 52.4% | 45.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% | ▲ | -0.8% | -3.7% | Currently | 50 | swing states | are in play | ||||||||||||||||||||
40 | West Virginia | 5 | 35.5% | 62.3% | -26.8% | 0.0% | ▼ | 4.9% | 15.8% | "Be alert to a shy-Trump effect between now and November..." RodCrosby, 25th June 2016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | New Mexico | 5 | 53.0% | 42.8% | 10.2% | 0.0% | ▲ | 1.5% | -4.3% | Notice how Trump has usually been closer in State Polls than nationally, PV-EV mismatch looms? | |||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | Idaho | 4 | 32.6% | 64.5% | -31.9% | 0.0% | ▼ | 2.7% | 17.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | New Hampshire | 4 | 52.0% | 46.4% | 5.6% | 0.0% | ▲ | 0.4% | -2.6% | PollDays | -5 | Amazing how PB can be so wise - after the event! | |||||||||||||||||||||
44 | Rhode Island | 4 | 62.7% | 35.2% | 27.5% | 0.0% | ▲ | 11.0% | -8.2% | -27 | -27 | Clinton | Trump | ||||||||||||||||||||
45 | Hawaii | 4 | 70.6% | 27.8% | 42.7% | 0.0% | ▲ | 11.4% | -15.7% | Make your own forecast by putting an 'X' in the Flip column | Betfair Implied Chance | now adjusted | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Wyoming | 3 | 27.8% | 68.6% | -40.8% | 0.0% | ▼ | 14.4% | 27.6% | CUSTOM FLIPS | 6 | 29 | 503 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | for overround | |||||||||||||||||
47 | North Dakota | 3 | 38.7% | 58.3% | -19.6% | 0.0% | ▼ | 16.0% | 17.8% | and others | |||||||||||||||||||||||
48 | South Dakota | 3 | 39.9% | 57.9% | -18.0% | 0.0% | ▼ | 12.7% | 15.4% | https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | Alaska | 3 | 40.8% | 54.8% | -14.0% | 0.0% | ▼ | 14.5% | 14.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Montana | 3 | 41.7% | 55.4% | -13.7% | 0.0% | ▼ | 13.6% | 13.6% | THE ABOVE WAS MY LAST EDIT ON 8TH NOVEMBER 2016. I THOUGHT TRUMP WOULD TAKE FL, MI AND ME CD2 (in addition to OH, IA and NC) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Delaware | 3 | 58.6% | 40.0% | 18.6% | 0.0% | ▲ | 16.2% | -1.2% | Clinton | Trump | He's a chancer | |||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Vermont | 3 | 66.6% | 31.0% | 35.6% | 0.0% | ▲ | 21.1% | -7.3% | PEC Forecast Chance | If Clinton wins by 1 vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Nebraska | 2 | 38.0% | 59.8% | -21.8% | 0.0% | ▼ | 30.4% | 26.1% | #VALUE! | #VALUE! | he'll claim his "99% probability" was spot on... | |||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Maine | 2 | 56.3% | 41.0% | 15.3% | 0.0% | ▲ | 27.6% | 6.2% | His maths is very impressive, but leaves out | |||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Nebraska CD1 | 1 | 41.0% | 57.6% | -16.7% | IMPUTED | 5.1% | ▼ | DEM GAIN | 26.4% | 21.5% | #VALUE! | #VALUE! | one critical final step. What if the polls are off? | |||||||||||||||||||
56 | Maine CD1 | 1 | 59.6% | 38.2% | 21.4% | IMPUTED | 6.1% | ▲ | 31.6% | 5.1% | We know they invariably are to some degree... Oops | ||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Nebraska CD2 | 1 | 45.8% | 53.0% | -7.2% | IMPUTED | 14.6% | ▼ | DEM GAIN | 26.0% | 16.6% | 2012 Result | 332 | 206 | Meta Margin | #VALUE! | He got lucky in three easier to call previous elections | ||||||||||||||||
58 | DC | 3 | 90.9% | 7.3% | 83.6% | 83.6% | 86.4% | 1.4% | PV margin | 4.0% | and now thinks he's infallible. 99% is bunkum. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | http://election.princeton.edu | His Meta-Margin fell by 0.5% overnight, which is quite a big move... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 538 | 52.0% | 48.0% | recent poll | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | A note on the State Trends: LONG TREND: The v^ arrows signify a shift of >1% since 2012, based on the latest polling. SHORT TREND: The sparklines show the actual latest individual polls, as simple party win/loss lines for quick, up-to-the-minute, interpretation. Full poll details can be found on individual state tabs. IMPUTED: single CD EVs, such as Maine's, may be imputed from the statewide polling uniform swing. | median | -3.2% | On February 20th, 2016, I made my first US 2016 forecast on PoliticalBetting.com TRUMP 353 CLINTON 185 I believed that Trump would win, despite the polls, the pundits, despite the unrelenting MSM attacks, despite the calumnies against him, despite the unprecedented intervention of the jackass in the White House and his ludicrous wife, despite everything. When the bien pensants were smugly counting their 'winnings' on a Clinton victory and the only question was how big it might be, I emailed an acquaintance (SeanT) on 1st November 2016. TRUMP 282 CLINTON 256 it seems the final result will be somewhere between these two predictions... (I also warned of a PV-EV mismatch on election day, see above and my tracker on the "History" tab) UPDATE: It's looking like 306 : 232 In terms of state marginality, only 2000, 1916, 1948 and 1960 were closer in the past 100 years... | Clinton | Trump | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | sd | 14.8% | 538 Forecast Chance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | 0.0% | 100.0% | I think Silver is now hedging/herding | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | Only Clinton would be so imbecilic to do this.... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | PV lead | 0.0% | Even Dewey never got pictured holding up the "Dewey beats Truman" newspaper! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | Her grubby, thieving hands even autographing the said risible Photoshopped artefact... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ | Bye, bye - you hubristic, unbalanced cow! DING DONG!!!!! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
72 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
73 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | AUTOGYRO.... a graceful thing of beauty and fun - the only way to fly | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | Oh, and forget that FLOTUS for POTUS crap... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
86 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | Michelle has the intellectual capacity of an average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | presenter of Sesame Street... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | She'd make a good one, to be fair, with her... talk to everyone | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | "Top Gear" for Autogyros | like they're remedial kids... shtick.... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8IB-5PbL9U | "One of these things is not like the other ones..." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | It's a woman! and we all gotta vote for her! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | They used to deliver mail by them. Beautiful, filmed in 1939... | Gyros definitely attract - cough - "individualists" (^_-) We are as free as the birds.... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoyWsg6Dxno | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | The pilot, Captain Miller, died only recently aged 102 ! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | https://vimeo.com/145989470 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||