ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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When price is lowWhen price is high
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PredictIt profit tax10%PredictIt profit tax10%
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PredictIt withdrawal tax5%PredictIt withdrawal tax5%
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Current price$0.10Current price$0.90
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Subjective probability (over current)1%Subjective probability (over current)1%
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Implied chance of winning11%Implied chance of winning91%
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If loseIf winIf loseIf win
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Base payout if lose$0Base payout if win$1Base payout if lose$0Base payout if win$1
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Profit if win$0.90Profit if win$0.10
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Tax on profit$0.09Tax on profit$0.01
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Money remaining$0.91Money remaining$0.99
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Withdrawal fee$0.05Withdrawal fee$0.05
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Money after withdrawal$0.86Money after withdrawal$0.94
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Expected value (subjective)Expected value (subjective)
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Expected value (subjective)$0.095Expected value (subjective)$0.856
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EV minus price-$0.005EV minus price-$0.044
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