What Happened Last Tuesday: Part 2 – Who Did They Vote For?
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Estimated Voting PatternsUpdated as of 05/21/2019
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Percent of ElectorateDemocratic Vote Margin2018 House2016 President2014 House2012 President2010 House2008 PresidentComposition
Change
Dem Margin
Change
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Group2018201620142012201020082006*201820162014201220102008DemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOther2014
to
2018
2016
to
2018
2014
to
2018
2016
to
2018
Group
6
Total*100100100100100100100+7+2-3+4-5+853461484664750351472465135345100+10+5Total*
7
Modeled Historical Republican34334035413438-67-67-76-74-73-73168311481511881128621285313861-6+0+9-0Modeled Historical Republican
8
Modeled Historical Middle31312629252927+11-1-1+3-1+7554414546947485504734849352452+5+0+12+12Modeled Historical Middle
9
Modeled Historical Democrat35353436343735+76+70+80+81+76+82871218313589929091871129181+1-0-4+6Modeled Historical Democrat
10
White75747976797782-11-19-17-15-19-8445513756741572415723958345532-4+0+6+8White
11
Black1212111311129+90+93+74+93+80+909451963185114963089929550+1-0+15-3Black
12
Hispanic/Latino8967675+42+46+27+38+21+27702817124561336673035837563361+3-0+15-4Hispanic/Latino
13
Asian/Other5545444+32+31+8+35+19+26653326231750428673215739462362+1-0+24+1Asian/Other
14
18-2911148149169+34+25+20+26+10+296632156301458384623635343464351+3-3+14+918-29
15
30-4421221823202423+26+14-3+7-0+14623625339847504524534848456421+2-2+29+1130-44
16
45-6439394340454044+0-3-6+2-5+3494914649546522504814651351481-4+0+6+345-64
17
65+29253123262024-6-14-5-8-13-8465314256246522465314355245532-2+4-1+865+
18
18-246848595+25+20+19+27+10+336237152321657384623535343466331+2-2+6+518-24
19
25-295746474+43+31+21+25+11+247128160281258374613625342562381+2-1+22+1225-29
20
30-3913151114121513+31+19-0+11+3+17653425536948484544334947458411+2-1+31+1230-39
21
40-4915161618192021+10+2-8+2-6+5544414846645523504824551352471-0-1+17+740-49
22
50-6431303431342933-1-3-6+2-4+3495014650446522504814751251481-4+1+4+250-64
23
65+29253123262024-6-14-5-8-13-8465314256246522465314355245532-2+4-1+865+
24
Non-College65666667686969+1-2-1+2-6+8504914648548493504824552353452-2-1+2+3Non-College
25
College35343433323131+19+11-7+9-1+7594015241745532544524849353461+2+1+26+8College
26
Female54545355535553+17+12+4+12+4+13584115342551472554315147256431+1-1+13+5Female
27
Male46464745474547-4-9-11-5-14+1475124251743544475124155450482-1+1+7+5Male
28
White Non-College47485250535256-21-28-17-21-23-10396013361640572395923760344542-4-1-4+7White Non-College
29
White College28272826262526+6-4-17-6-11-4534614448841581465224354247511-0+1+23+10White College
30
Non-White Non-College17181517151713+62+66+55+67+54+64801918215375214831617521481181+3-1+7-5Non-White Non-College
31
Non-White College8867665+63+61+34+63+44+48811817818464307811827027374251+2+0+29+2Non-White College
32
White Women39404140414143-3-12-11-9-12-4485114153544551455424355248511-2-0+8+9White Women
33
White Men36353835383539-20-28-23-23-27-13395923260837603376123561442562-3+1+3+8White Men
34
Non-White Women15151214121410+71+73+55+70+60+63851418411476214851517919281181+3-0+16-2Non-White Women
35
Non-White Men11119109108+50+53+40+59+39+54742417522366277781926728576221+2-0+10-3Non-White Men
36
Single41433741374038+30+22+20+25+15+26643415736758393613725641362362+4-2+10+8Single
37
Married59576359636062-8-12-17-10-16-5455314154541572445424157347521-4+2+8+4Married
38
Single Female24252124222422+38+29+27+31+21+31683116232662362653426039265341+2-2+11+8Single Female
39
Single Male17181517151616+19+11+10+16+6+19594025241852435574135145458393+2-1+10+8Single Male
40
Married Female30293230313131+1-4-12-4-8-1504914650444551485114553249501-1+1+12+4Married Female
41
Married Male29283228312931-18-22-22-17-24-9405823658738593415723660445542-3+1+4+4Married Male
42
White College Men13131412131213-2-12-24-15-18-54850239511037612425623957347521-0+1+22+10White College Men
43
White Non-College Men22222523252426-31-37-23-28-31-17346522865737603356323364440573-2+0-8+6White Non-College Men
44
White College Women14141414131314+14+4-10+2-4-3574214945645551504824751248511+0+0+24+10White College Women
45
White Non-College Women25262727282829-13-20-11-14-16-4435613758544551425624157247521-2-1-2+7White Non-College Women
46
Non-White Non-College Men7767676+51+57+45+60+43+59752417721270246791926926579202+1-0+6-6Non-White Non-College Men
47
Non-White Non-College Women10119109108+69+73+61+71+62+67841518411479183851418018383161+2-0+8-4Non-White Non-College Women
48
Non-White College Men3333332+48+45+27+56+30+42732527026459329772036333470291+1+0+21+3Non-White College Men
49
Non-White College Women4434343+75+73+39+68+54+53871218411567284841617622276231+1+0+36+2Non-White College Women
50
White 18-2979696117+14+1+1+1-9+105642142411849483494834352455451+2-2+13+13White 18-29
51
White 30-4414151316151818+8-9-20-17-20-45345241491038593405733858447512+1-1+28+16White 30-44
52
White 45-6429293431363137-19-24-20-16-18-11405913559540591415714058244551-5+0+1+5White 45-64
53
White 65+24212619221721-20-29-15-22-23-18395913464242572396013761240583-2+4-5+9White 65+
54
Non-White 18-294525352+69+71+66+74+57+70841518110880147861217720385150+2-1+3-2Non-White 18-29
55
Non-White 30-446757575+66+67+45+65+55+61821618115469247811627520580191+2-1+21-1Non-White 30-44
56
Non-White 45-6410999988+58+63+46+62+47+56792018118270255811917225377221+1+0+12-5Non-White 45-64
57
Non-White 65+5454433+59+58+48+65+50+49792017820173253821717424274251+0+1+11+1Non-White 65+
58
White 18-244535363+0-8-1-1-11+135049136442048493484934353456431+1-1+2+8White 18-24
59
White 25-294434353+28+10+3+2-8+66336148371550474504834451552471+1-1+24+17White 25-29
60
White 30-3991081091110+15-3-17-13-17-15642243461140573425534057448502+1-1+32+18White 30-39
61
White 40-4911121213141517-12-23-25-21-23-12435523558737622386023760343551-1-1+13+11White 40-49
62
White 50-6423232724282327-19-24-19-15-16-10405913659540591425714157244541-4+1-1+4White 50-64
63
White 65+24212619221721-20-29-15-22-23-18395913464242572396013761240583-2+4-5+9White 65+
64
Non-White 18-242313131+67+70+65+75+56+748316180101079147871227621387130+1-1+2-3Non-White 18-24
65
Non-White 25-292212121+72+72+67+73+58+65851418211781136861317719482170+1-0+4+0Non-White 25-29
66
Non-White 30-394534343+67+67+46+65+57+63831618114469237811627619581181+1-0+21-0Non-White 30-39
67
Non-White 40-495545454+61+64+44+63+49+56801918117369256811817323477211+1-0+18-2Non-White 40-49
68
Non-White 50-647777766+58+63+46+62+48+56782118118271245811917225377211+0+0+11-5Non-White 50-64
69
Non-White 65+5454433+59+58+48+65+50+49792017820173253821717424274251+0+1+11+1Non-White 65+
70
White Single Women16171516161617+16+3+11+7+2+12584114845755441524625048156431+0-1+5+14White Single Women
71
White Single Men12131212121213+1-13-4-7-9+15049239511046504455234352449483+0-0+5+13White Single Men
72
White Married Women24232624262526-16-22-24-20-21-14425713759438611395923960242571-2+1+8+6White Married Women
73
White Married Men23222623262426-31-36-32-31-34-21346522864733652336523165339592-3+1+1+5White Married Men
74
Non-White Single Women8968675+80+81+66+80+70+7490101897481153901018414287130+2-1+14-1Non-White Single Women
75
Non-White Single Men5545443+63+67+52+71+54+67811818216273207841327421583161+1-0+11-3Non-White Single Men
76
Non-White Married Women7666665+60+62+43+57+49+51802017916569274782117324375241+1+0+17-2Non-White Married Women
77
Non-White Married Men6555555+38+39+30+48+29+43683026829361327732526233571272+0+0+8-1Non-White Married Men
78
Urban**19211820192018+49+46+36+44+33+43742517024666313712726532471281+2-1+13+3Urban**
79
Suburban55535455545759+9+3-5+3-8+5544514845647512514824553352471+1+2+13+5Suburban
80
Rural26262926272323-27-34-24-23-25-17366313064636613376123661341581-3-1-3+6Rural
81
Urban White11111111121211+32+22+23+20+16+27653315735860373593935640462362-0-0+9+10Urban White
82
Suburban White42414342444549-8-16-18-15-21-9455313954740581425723959245542-1+1+10+8Suburban White
83
Rural White22232522242021-38-45-32-34-33-27306812470633652326623266236631-3-1-6+8Rural White
84
Urban Non-White91079796+69+73+55+74+58+65841518512476204861217719482171+2-1+14-4Urban Non-White
85
Suburban Non-White13131113101210+61+63+47+64+48+56801918017471245811717225378211+3+0+14-2Suburban Non-White
86
Rural Non-White3333332+46+46+38+51+43+56732617125365277752417026477212-0-0+9+0Rural Non-White
87
Urban White College5544444+47+36+25+31+27+28732616427962371643336235363351+0-0+22+11Urban White College
88
Suburban White College17161716161617+5-5-21-10-17-7524714348839601445424057246531+0+1+26+10Suburban White College
89
Rural White College6665555-22-33-35-22-25-23386013063831672386023661338611-0+0+13+11Rural White College
90
Urban White Non-College6666777+20+12+21+13+9+26593915241759374554225243462362-0-0-1+9Urban White Non-College
91
Suburban White Non-College25242626282932-17-23-16-18-23-10415813558641572405823760244542-1+0-1+6Suburban White Non-College
92
Rural White Non-College17171917181517-43-50-31-37-36-28287112272533642306823167236631-3-1-12+7Rural White Non-College
93
Urban 18-293423242+62+58+56+62+41+578118173151376204801736927478211+1-1+6+5Urban 18-29
94
Urban 30-445545454+62+56+40+51+42+50801827418768275742336926574251+1-0+22+6Urban 30-44
95
Urban 45-647777878+43+42+34+40+32+38712816927466313693016432368302-0-0+9+1Urban 45-64
96
Urban 65+5454434+37+29+27+27+21+26683116435262352633615938362363-0+0+10+8Urban 65+
97
Suburban 18-296748595+34+25+20+23+7+276633155301658384603725145463361+2-1+14+9Suburban 18-29
98
Suburban 30-4411121012111413+27+15-5+5-3+10623625439846513524624750454442+1-1+32+12Suburban 30-44
99
Suburban 45-6422212322242326+2-1-8+2-8+2504814748545532504914553250491-2+1+10+3Suburban 45-64
100
Suburban 65+16131712141215-4-12-7-9-15-12475214355246532455414257243552-1+3+2+8Suburban 65+
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