What Happened Last Tuesday: Part 2 – Who Did They Vote For?
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Estimated Voting PatternsUpdated as of 12/05/2018
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Percent of ElectorateDemocratic Vote Margin2018 House2016 President2014 House2012 President2010 House2008 PresidentComposition
Change
Dem Margin
Change
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Group2018201620142012201020082006*201820162014201220102008DemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOtherDemRepOther2014
to
2018
2016
to
2018
2014
to
2018
2016
to
2018
Group
6
Total**100100100100100100100+7+2-3+4-5+853461484664750351472465135346100+11+5Total**
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Modeled Historical Republican34334035413438-67-67-76-75-73-73168321481511881128721285313861-5+1+9-0Modeled Historical Republican
8
Modeled Historical Middle31312629262927+11-1-1+3-1+7554424546947485504734849352452+5+0+12+12Modeled Historical Middle
9
Modeled Historical Democrat35363436343735+78+70+80+81+76+82881118313589929091871129181+1-1-2+7Modeled Historical Democrat
10
White75747976797782-13-19-17-16-19-8435613756741582415723958345532-4+1+4+7White
11
Black1212111311129+92+93+74+93+80+909641963185114963089929550+1+0+17-1Black
12
Hispanic/Latino8967675+44+46+27+38+21+27712727124561346673035837563361+2-1+16-3Hispanic/Latino
13
Asian/Other5545444+45+31+8+35+19+27712636231750428673215739462362+1-0+38+15Asian/Other
14
18-2910148149169+44+25+20+26+10+297227156301458384623635343464351+2-4+24+1918-29
15
30-4419221823202523+28+14-3+7-1+14633525339847504524534848456422+1-3+31+1430-44
16
45-6440394340454044-1-3-6+2-5+3495014649546522504814651351481-3+1+6+245-64
17
65+32253123262024-7-14-5-8-13-8465314256246522465314355245532+0+7-2+765+
18
18-245848595+38+20+19+27+10+336930152321657385623535343466331+1-2+19+1818-24
19
25-295746574+51+31+21+25+11+247524160281259374613625342562381+1-2+30+2025-29
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30-3912151114121513+35+190+11+3+17663125536948484544334947458412+1-3+35+1630-39
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40-4915161618192021+10+2-8+2-6+5544424846645533504824551352471-1-2+18+840-49
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50-6431303431342933-2-4-6+2-4+3485014650446522504814751351481-3+2+4+250-64
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65+32253123262024-7-14-5-8-13-8465314256246522465314355245532+0+7-2+765+
24
Non-College64666667686969+1-2-1+2-6+8504914649548493504824552353452-3-2+2+3Non-College
25
College36343433323131+19+11-7+9-1+7594025241745532544524849353461+3+2+27+8College
26
Female54555355535553+18+12+4+12+4+13594115342551472554315147256431+1-1+14+6Female
27
Male46464745474547-5-9-11-5-14+1465224251743544475124155450482-1+1+6+4Male
28
White Non-College47485250535256-24-28-17-21-23-10376113361640572395923760344542-5-1-7+4White Non-College
29
White College29272826262526+7-4-17-6-11-4534614448841581465224354347511+1+2+23+10White College
30
Non-White Non-College17181517151713+68+67+55+67+54+64831518215375214831617521481181+2-1+13+1Non-White Non-College
31
Non-White College8867665+65+61+34+63+44+48821627818464307811827027374261+2+0+32+5Non-White College
32
White Women40404140414143-4-12-11-9-12-4485114153644551455424355248511-10+7+8White Women
33
White Men35353835383539-23-28-23-23-27-13386023260837603376123561442562-3+1+1+5White Men
34
Non-White Women14151214121410+77+73+55+70+60+64881118411476214851517919281181+2-1+23+4Non-White Women
35
Non-White Men11119109108+53+53+40+59+39+54762227522366277791926728576221+2-0+14+0Non-White Men
36
Single41433741374038+33+22+20+25+15+27663315836758393613725641362362+4-2+13+11Single
37
Married59576359636062-10-13-17-10-16-5445424154541572445424157347521-4+2+6+2Married
38
Single Female24252225222422+41+29+27+31+21+31702916232662362653426039265341+2-2+14+12Single Female
39
Single Male17181517161616+22+11+10+16+6+19613825241852435574135145458393+2-1+13+11Single Male
40
Married Female30293230323131+0-4-12-4-8-1505014650444551485114553249501-1+1+12+4Married Female
41
Married Male29283229312931-21-22-22-17-24-9385933658738593415823660445542-3+1+0+0Married Male
42
White College Men14131412131213-4-12-24-15-18-54751239511037612425634057347521+0+1+20+8White College Men
43
White Non-College Men22222523252426-35-37-23-28-31-17326622865737603356323364440573-3-1-12+2White Non-College Men
44
White College Women15141414131314+16+4-10+2-4-3584214945645551504824751248511+1+1+26+12White College Women
45
White Non-College Women25262727282829-15-20-11-14-16-4425713758544551425624157248521-2-1-4+5White Non-College Women
46
Non-White Non-College Men7767676+54+57+45+60+43+59762227721270256791926926579202+1-0+9-3Non-White Non-College Men
47
Non-White Non-College Women10119109108+78+73+61+71+62+67891118511479183851418018383161+1-1+17+5Non-White Non-College Women
48
Non-White College Men4333332+51+45+27+56+30+42742337126459329772136333470291+1+0+24+7Non-White College Men
49
Non-White College Women4434343+76+73+39+68+54+53881118411567284841617622277231+10+37+3Non-White College Women
50
White 18-2979696117+27+1+1+1-9+106336142411849484494834352455451+1-3+26+26White 18-29
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White 30-4413151316151818+10-9-21-17-20-45444341501038593405733858447512-0-2+31+19White 30-44
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White 45-6430293431363137-22-24-20-16-18-11396013559640591415724058244551-4+0-2+3White 45-64
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White 65+26212619221721-24-29-15-22-23-18386113564242572396013861240583-1+5-9+5White 65+
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Non-White 18-294525352+76+71+66+74+57+70881118110880147861227720385150+1-1+10+5Non-White 18-29
55
Non-White 30-446757575+69+67+45+65+55+61841528115469247811727520580191+1-1+24+2Non-White 30-44
56
Non-White 45-6410999988+63+63+46+62+47+56811828118271255811917225377221+1+1+17-1Non-White 45-64
57
Non-White 65+6454433+67+58+48+65+50+49831617820173253821717424274251+1+1+20+9Non-White 65+
58
White Single Women16171516161617+19+3+11+7+2+12594014845755442534625048156431+1-1+8+16White Single Women
59
White Single Men12131212121213+4-13-5-7-9+15148239511046504455234352449483+0-1+8+16White Single Men
60
White Married Women24232624262526-18-22-24-20-21-15415913759438611405923960242571-2+1+6+4White Married Women
61
White Married Men23222723262426-36-36-32-31-34-21316732865733652336523166339602-3+1-5+0White Married Men
62
Non-White Single Women8968675+86+81+66+80+70+749371897481154901018414287130+2-1+20+5Non-White Single Women
63
Non-White Single Men5545443+67+67+52+71+54+67831628216273207851327521583161+1-0+15+0Non-White Single Men
64
Non-White Married Women7666665+67+62+43+57+49+51831617916570274782117324375241+1+0+25+5Non-White Married Women
65
Non-White Married Men6555555+41+39+30+48+29+43692836829361327732526233571282+1+0+11+2Non-White Married Men
66
Urban***19211820192018+47+46+36+44+33+43732627024666313712726532471281+2-1+12+2Urban***
67
Suburban55535455545759+9+3-5+3-8+5544514845647512514824553352471+1+2+14+6Suburban
68
Rural26262926272324-27-34-24-23-25-17366323064637613376123661341581-3-1-3+7Rural
69
Urban White11111111121212+26+22+23+20+16+27623625735860373593935640462362-0-1+3+4Urban White
70
Suburban White42414342444549-9-16-18-15-21-9455413954741581425723959245542-1+2+9+7Suburban White
71
Rural White22232522242021-38-46-32-34-33-27306822470633652326623266236631-3-1-6+7Rural White
72
Urban Non-White91079896+74+73+55+74+58+65861318512476204861217719482171+2-1+18+0Urban Non-White
73
Suburban Non-White13131113101210+66+63+47+64+48+56821618017471245811817325378211+3+0+19+3Suburban Non-White
74
Rural Non-White3333332+53+46+38+51+43+56752327225365278752417026477212-0-0+15+7Rural Non-White
75
Urban White College5544544+42+37+25+31+27+28702826427962371643336235363351+0+0+17+5Urban White College
76
Suburban White College18161716161617+8-5-21-10-17-8534514348839601445424157246531+1+2+29+13Suburban White College
77
Rural White College6665655-26-33-36-22-25-23376213063831672386023661338611-0+0+10+7Rural White College
78
Urban White Non-College6667777+13+12+22+13+9+26554325341759384554225243462362-0-1-9+1Urban White Non-College
79
Suburban White Non-College25242626282932-21-23-16-18-23-10396013558641572405823760244542-2+0-5+2Suburban White Non-College
80
Rural White Non-College16171917191517-43-50-31-37-36-28287122272533642306823167236631-3-1-12+7Rural White Non-College
81
Urban 18-293423242+65+58+56+63+42+578217173151376204801736927478211+1-1+9+7Urban 18-29
82
Urban 30-444545454+62+56+40+51+42+50801827418768275742336926574251+1-1+21+6Urban 30-44
83
Urban 45-647777878+42+42+34+40+32+3870282692746631369301643336830200+8+0Urban 45-64
84
Urban 65+5454444+34+29+27+27+21+26663216435263362633615938362363+0+1+7+5Urban 65+
85
Suburban 18-296748595+48+25+20+23+7+277426155301658384603735145463361+2-2+28+23Suburban 18-29
86
Suburban 30-4410121012111413+30+15-6+5-3+10643435439846513524624750454442+1-1+36+16Suburban 30-44
87
Suburban 45-6422212322242326+1-1-8+2-8+2504914748545532504914553250491-1+1+9+2Suburban 45-64
88
Suburban 65+17131712141215-6-12-7-9-15-12475314355246532455414257243552+1+4+1+6Suburban 65+
89
Rural 18-292323232+8-16-13-7-17-25445135511441545455233956549511+0-1+21+25Rural 18-29
90
Rural 30-444555555-12-29-33-32-32-124355331601031645336533264443561-1-1+21+17Rural 30-44
91
Rural 45-6411111311131011-33-36-26-22-22-21336623066436622386023860239602-2-0-7+3Rural 45-64
92
Rural 65+9797756-35-41-20-25-27-24326712970239592376213563237612-1+2-15+7Rural 65+
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* Data from 2006 is based on a slightly incomplete national file, and has more uncertainty.
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** In midterm years, candidate preferences are projected for voters in uncontested races, to make trends more comparable across all years. As a result, "Total" numbers do not add up to the exact national topline
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*** Urbanity is defined by the population density of census tracts
99
Urban = 75-100th Percentile
100
Suburban = 25-75th Percentile
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