ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
From original post
2
Proposition
Current position
Lower prize threshold
Upper prize threshold
3
“P(misalignment x-risk|AGI)”: Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go extinct or drastically curtail its future potential due to loss of control of AGI
15%7%35%
4
AGI will be developed by January 1, 204320%10%45%
5
AGI will be developed by January 1, 210060%30%N/A
6
7
Rose workings
8
AGI will be developed by January 1, 207038.95%19.47%-
9
Unconditional probability that humanity will go extinct or drastically curtail its future potential due to loss of control of AGI by 2070
5.8%1.4%-
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100