AFV / Diesel Sales Forecast
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There was a clear yearly pattern for sales of both AFVs (alternatively fuelled vehicles) and diesel cars. There were spikes in sales for both types of cars in September and March; with the previous months, August and February, having relatively little sales.
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The approach that was taken to forecast sales figures for future years was to interpret the percentage change of sales year on year from previous figures. After plotting the percentage change of each month from the same month of the previous year starting with the percentage change from Oct 2013 to Oct 2014, the percentage changes were plotted in a scatter graph against the month. It seems evident the percentage change for sales of diesel cars is decreasing over time meaning the number of sales of diesel cars is dramatically decreasing. In addition to this the percentage change of alternatively fuelled vehicles seems to increase following a quadratic curve implying the sales of AFVs are increasing faster than the sales of diesel cars are decreasing.
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The linear model of change of percentage sales of diesel cars was equal to -0.0081 multiplied by the month number +1.233. This was carried forward to predict the sales decrease each month in the future. The previous year’s corresponding month was then multiplied by the predicted percentage change to give a predicted figure of sales of diesel cars for that month (e.g. estimated November 2017 = predicted percentage change * sales figures from November 2016). The same approach was taken to forecast sales of AFVs and the model was: percentage change of sales of AFVs = 0.0015x^2 - 0.1041x + 2.9792 where x is the month number. Once again this was used by multiplying the previous year’s sales figure by the predicted monthly increase.
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The figures for both were compared to each other and it has been predicted the first monthly sales figures for AFVs to overcome the sales figures for diesel cars is May 2019.
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Explanation
Data
Graph
Graph 6mth lin.
Graph 6mth quad.
Graph Y-O-Y
Y-O-Y percs forecast
Graph percs forecast