South Carolina 5th District Election Survey Data - Change Research (changeresearch.org)
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1
Survey of the SC-05 Special Congressional Election, conducted June 14-18, by Change Research (info@changeresearch.org)
2
Full SampleRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
3
All Respondents 100%8728723%51%18%16%12%30%26%10%6%26%18%10%65%5.243%23%15%19%41%26%5%28%
4
5
6
Age RangeRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
7
18 to 24 9%59793%24%22%43%9%16%25%6%7%45%5%21%69%4.25%34%41%20%71%13%3%13%
8
25 to 34 18%751573%27%21%28%21%21%16%16%15%23%9%18%73%5.139%32%11%19%37%21%1%41%
9
35 to 44 20%1131742%53%19%14%11%19%28%11%4%36%24%2%59%5.246%20%13%21%42%18%7%33%
10
45 to 54 20%1191752%58%15%12%13%35%31%10%3%20%14%9%74%5.242%20%9%28%45%33%3%19%
11
55 to 64 19%2221664%62%17%9%9%41%25%8%5%22%19%15%61%5.556%20%15%9%33%37%8%23%
12
65 or older 14%2841226%68%14%4%7%44%31%7%2%17%41%4%54%5.650%19%18%13%36%27%9%29%
13
14
15
GenderRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
16
Female 53%4834624%46%21%17%11%23%32%11%7%28%15%18%63%4.831%25%17%28%49%22%3%25%
17
Male 47%3894103%56%14%15%13%38%20%9%4%25%22%2%67%5.657%21%13%9%33%30%8%30%
18
19
20
RegistrationRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
21
Democrat 29%1812516%61%8%19%7%1%70%1%11%18%1%30%66%3.21%16%30%53%87%4%0%9%
22
Independent 27%2652382%42%26%16%13%14%20%13%7%41%15%8%66%5.140%28%20%11%45%22%4%28%
23
Republican 44%4263833%49%19%14%15%60%0%15%1%23%32%1%63%6.673%24%2%1%9%43%9%39%
24
25
26
EthnicityRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
27
212611%71%2%15%0%82%0%0%0%18%61%0%39%5.952%34%0%14%24%52%0%24%
28
American Indian or Alaska Native 2%15200%61%18%8%13%42%14%9%0%21%11%89%0%4.738%27%26%8%37%35%3%25%
29
Black or African American 18%391580%62%12%21%5%5%62%0%9%23%0%24%76%3.49%10%30%52%80%10%3%7%
30
Hispanic 1%1390%44%26%12%17%31%9%6%28%26%0%0%100%4.437%14%30%18%50%26%6%18%
31
White / Caucasian 76%7846594%47%20%15%14%34%19%13%5%27%21%6%65%5.651%25%12%12%33%28%6%33%
32
33
34
President Vote Plus_2016Raw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
35
Did not vote 1%38100%13%31%29%27%2%10%23%0%53%6%0%94%4.729%51%9%11%35%18%1%46%
36
Donald Trump, the Republican 41%3683602%51%18%16%13%56%1%15%1%25%32%1%63%6.477%22%1%0%11%42%9%38%
37
Evan McMullin, the Independence Party 1%11622%35%35%0%7%54%23%0%7%16%0%0%57%5.825%45%18%12%21%70%0%9%
38
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 3%34260%40%15%22%23%3%10%13%4%45%12%20%47%5.414%63%17%7%31%21%0%48%
39
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 28%1892425%65%13%15%3%1%68%1%13%19%1%31%60%3.40%18%35%47%89%3%0%8%
40
Jill Stein, the Green Party 0%640%52%18%0%30%0%0%0%30%70%0%31%69%3.50%47%0%53%53%0%0%47%
41
No Response But Party ID Democrat 8%34655%40%9%24%22%0%50%4%7%39%0%0%100%0%0%100%0%100%0%0%0%
42
No Response But Party ID Independent 7%74603%25%35%20%16%11%4%19%11%39%4%11%65%530%34%7%30%14%4%30%52%
43
No Response But Party ID Republican 11%118992%34%27%15%22%40%1%18%0%40%25%0%75%23%34%43%0%0%28%16%56%
44
45
46
President Vote TodayRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
47
2272243%34%25%19%20%21%16%14%5%40%11%3%82%421%28%37%13%36%11%19%34%
48
Donald Trump, the Republican 40%3643462%52%18%16%12%58%0%15%0%24%32%1%63%6.578%21%0%0%10%43%9%37%
49
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 4%42320%33%26%13%28%1%15%12%8%43%11%9%60%5.515%60%19%5%27%16%0%57%
50
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 25%1762226%64%11%16%3%1%71%1%10%19%2%28%66%3.30%15%36%49%88%3%0%9%
51
I would not vote 3%46297%29%31%14%19%9%40%9%2%40%25%21%46%4.931%48%17%4%37%30%0%33%
52
Jill Stein, the Green Party 2%17190%73%10%13%4%0%21%0%45%34%0%38%36%4.10%35%21%44%96%0%0%4%
53
54
55
Primary News SourceRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
56
2292343%35%24%19%19%40%4%12%2%36%21%8%67%5.465%27%2%6%28%50%2%20%
57
Breitbart 2%18180%53%12%3%32%80%0%0%0%20%45%0%55%5.5100%0%0%0%9%56%0%35%
58
CNN 5%38436%55%12%18%9%7%58%5%16%19%0%33%56%3.610%17%49%25%95%0%0%5%
59
Fox News 18%1841582%58%15%13%12%64%1%15%1%18%44%1%48%6.787%13%0%0%13%40%15%33%
60
Huffington Post 2%12180%86%0%11%2%3%63%8%0%26%0%0%69%3.610%8%10%71%52%38%0%10%
61
Infowars 1%250%43%57%0%0%0%0%0%0%43%0%0%0%7.9100%0%0%0%43%57%0%0%
62
Local newspapers 3%31260%73%6%6%15%46%32%0%0%18%0%43%57%5.831%56%8%5%34%25%0%41%
63
Local TV news 13%1271174%41%22%25%8%22%16%20%1%38%18%12%70%5.640%30%11%19%30%27%4%39%
64
MSNBC 4%373511%64%6%9%11%8%67%0%21%6%0%66%34%3.46%8%48%38%85%0%0%15%
65
New York Times 1%11100%91%9%0%0%0%80%8%9%3%0%0%100%3.50%18%46%36%92%8%0%0%
66
NPR 6%42537%48%36%6%3%13%56%3%13%18%0%0%86%4.312%27%38%23%67%5%7%21%
67
TV Network News (ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS) 18%1411574%52%15%19%11%12%41%6%9%31%12%11%72%4.522%30%16%33%50%17%2%31%
68
69
70
Trump RatingRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
71
2392404%36%23%18%19%21%23%12%4%37%10%11%76%815%37%19%29%44%4%8%44%
72
1 20%1681745%70%14%7%4%0%72%1%8%22%2%35%50%30%9%34%57%93%3%0%4%
73
10 11%104931%68%16%5%10%71%0%12%0%14%67%0%33%7.390%10%0%0%6%51%16%26%
74
2 6%37555%50%11%31%3%0%44%6%31%22%0%0%91%4.32%27%46%24%76%0%0%23%
75
3 3%22230%47%15%26%12%6%62%0%2%26%0%9%91%4.919%52%28%1%70%6%0%23%
76
4 2%17169%19%29%14%28%0%1%10%16%62%0%0%88%4.812%72%14%2%6%19%0%75%
77
5 3%32271%53%19%19%7%25%0%31%0%33%40%10%51%5.646%54%0%0%21%23%0%56%
78
6 4%37332%28%17%33%21%27%0%14%11%45%6%7%88%5.137%63%0%0%16%50%0%34%
79
7 7%52604%38%17%28%13%44%0%25%0%26%45%0%50%6.162%38%0%0%9%46%6%39%
80
8 10%101915%42%23%18%13%54%0%12%1%33%17%0%76%6.581%19%0%0%12%40%6%42%
81
9 7%63590%56%14%13%17%72%0%12%0%12%63%0%28%6.495%5%0%0%8%42%14%36%
82
83
84
Do You Plan To Vote In The Upcoming_SpecialRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
85
616840%100%0%0%100%0%0%0%
86
I already voted 3%3425100%0%0%0%0%31%58%4%0%7%40%0%60%4.828%24%30%17%48%20%0%32%
87
I definitely will not vote 7%69610%0%100%4.544%24%8%24%31%26%10%32%
88
I might vote 14%941200%0%0%100%0%14%9%16%14%45%17%13%70%537%30%13%20%32%23%4%42%
89
I probably will not vote 10%90880%0%0%0%100%36%4%16%7%31%11%18%72%6.155%31%10%5%26%26%1%46%
90
I'll probably vote 15%1391320%0%100%0%0%21%14%16%5%41%17%2%73%5.747%26%21%7%35%36%3%26%
91
Yes, I'll definitely vote 43%3853770%100%0%0%0%37%36%6%3%15%24%15%48%5.143%18%15%23%49%24%7%20%
92
93
94
US_House_Vote_CandidateRaw
Weighted
Already_Voted
Definitely Vote
Probably VoteMight_VoteProbably Not_Vote
Def Norman
Def Parnell
Prob NormanProb Parnell
Prob Undecided
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Norman
Pct_Undecideds_Lean_Parnell
Totally_Undecided
Avg_How Would You Rate_Governor_Henry_McMasters
Pct_FBI_Lib_Conspiracy
Pct_FBI_Concerning
Pct_FBI_Huge
Pct_FBI_Impeached
Pct_AHCA_Awful
Pct_AHCA_Not_Great_But
Pct_AHCA_Good
Pct_AHCA_No_Opinion
95
1381367%37%38%9%8%19%0%81%4.557%26%7%11%31%19%13%37%
96
Definitely Archie Parnell, the Democrat 19%1441697%77%9%6%1%0%101%0%0%0%3.22%15%37%46%93%3%0%4%
97
Definitely Ralph Norman, the Republican 22%2301963%69%12%8%8%100%0%0%0%0%7.184%15%0%1%5%51%10%34%
98
Definitely Victor Kocher, the Libertarian 1%680%62%20%19%0%0%0%0%0%0%5.432%48%0%20%52%28%20%0%
99
I don't plan to vote 10%91880%0%1%9%90%0%0%100%548%28%7%17%32%19%5%44%
100
I haven't decided yet 19%1631671%33%27%30%8%0%0%0%0%101%18%12%63%537%34%14%15%41%18%5%36%
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