Ballot Weighting Analysis w CJ
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Santa Clarita - Landscape Maintenance District #1
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Ballot Weighting Analysis - Ballot Proposal FY 2011-2012
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Note: This analysis applies only to how the ballots were mailed, not the final results. The data in these tables is taken from
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the Engineer's Report for the propsed LMD. This is a relatively complicated proposal to analyze as every Zone and different
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type of property has a different ballot. Even with that, this analysis is directionally correct and confirms that there is a huge
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potential for 'Yes' votes to overpower the new taxpayers in Newhall and those being annexed into Zone 2008-1.
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Only the final ballot count will tell us how this actually plays out.
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The Powerful "YES" Vote:TotalBallotPreviousTotal LMD
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More likely to vote 'yes' due to a decreaseBallot2011/20122010/2011Revenue
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in overall assessment.EBU'sWeightRateRateDifferenceGain/Loss
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Zone 7(McBean Newhall Ranch-Creekside)1028.00$252,218.70$245.35$247.78-$2.43-$2,498.03
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Zone T2 (Old Orchard)1128.70$200,299.00$177.46$191.31-$13.85-$15,632.79
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Zone T3 (Valencia Hills)461.25$169,970.00$368.50$379.81-$11.31-$5,217.36
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Zone T46 (Northbridge)2345.82$1,827,067.00$778.86$792.46-$13.60-$31,897.55
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Zone T47 (Northpark)1924.76$736,684.00$382.74$392.00-$9.26-$17,823.49
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Total$3,186,238.70-$73,069.23
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Note: While these areas are overwhelmingly residential and the above rates apply, the commercial properties in these are will see
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an increase in their assessment and ballot weight. They may be more likely to vote "no".
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Circle J - A bit more complex,TotalBallotPreviousTotal LMD
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but clearly in the "Yes" column.Ballot2011/20122010/2011Revenue
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Zone 27 (Circle J Ranch - CJR)EBU'sWeightRateRateDifferenceGain/Loss
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CJR A (Specific parcels, EBU's and Ballot weight cannot be found in$693.40$765.36-$71.96$0.00
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CJR C engineer's report or other documentation at this time)$693.40$1,457.68-$764.28$0.00
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CJR B1$693.40$777.83-$84.43$0.00
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CJR B2$693.40$1,654.94-$961.54$0.00
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CJR B3 4 (15 Parcels)$693.40$133.14$560.26$0.00
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Total851.56$590,191.00
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While 15 Parcels are showing a significant increase and will likely vote 'NO' the rest ot the subzones are showing a
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significant decrease and will most assuredly vote 'YES'. This would equal about a $580,000 weighted yes vote and more
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than offset the potential 'no' votes from the comercial parcels in the "Powerful Yes" above.
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The New Vote:TotalBallotPreviousTotal LMD
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Properties paying for the first time.Ballot2011/20122010/2011Revenue
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Also shows combined new LMD revenue.EBU'sWeightRateRateDifferenceGain/Loss
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Zone 2008-1 (Annexed Parcels, Medians)6775.37$405,776.00$59.89$0.00$59.89$405,776.73
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Zone 28 (Newhall)4917.15$351,922.00$71.57$0.00$71.57$351,920.32
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Total$757,698.00$757,698.00
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The total revenue gain from these zones will be offset by the net losses in the rest ot the zones. The city will see a net gain in
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LMD revenues of approximately $150,000 if the proposal passes (Per Dennis Luppens, Special Districts Administrator) .
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The Less Significant:TotalBallotPreviousTotal LMD
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Either no change in rate or methodologyBallot2011/20122010/2011Revenue
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change is difficult to make analysis.EBU'sWeightRateRateDifferenceGain/Loss
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Zone 17 (Bouquet Cyn/Railroad Av1275.27$98,860.25$77.52$77.52$0.00$0.00
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Zone 26 (Centre Point Comm)2429.20$204,490.00$84.18Per/AcreUnkownUnkown
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Zone T3B (Valencia Hills - Trees)206.46$7,184.50$34.80$34.80$7,184.76
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Zone T4 (Valencia Meadows)956.39$193,745.00$202.58$202.58$0.00$0.00
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Total$504,279.75
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Summary:
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Total Ballot Weight (Powerful "Yes")$3,186,238.70
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Circle J likely "Yes"$580,000.00
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Total likely "Yes"$3,766,238.70
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VS: Total Ballot Weight (All others)$1,261,977.75
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Conclusion: While not everyone in the "YES" zones will vote yes, most probably will.
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Even if most in the other zones voted no it is unlikely they can overcome the huge
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imbalance in ballot weighting. Only the actual voting outcome will say for sure.
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