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1 | Supplementary Table S2: The list of candidate uncertain model parameters used for sensitivity analysis. The reference value shows the data-derived value used in the BAU model (see model documentation for details of data derivation). The uncertainty range shows symmetric variation of ±30% around the reference value for all parameters except for those marked with an asterisk (*) where a symmetrical uncertainty range caused errors in the model. The uncertainty range for parameters marked with a caret (^) were set in an ad hoc manner. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Component | Variable | Units | Reference value | Lower | Upper | Variation | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | Demographic | fertility rate | 1/Year | 0.05126 | 0.035882 | 0.066638 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
4 | mortality rate young | 1/Year | 0.00031 | 0.000217 | 0.000403 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
5 | mortality rate mid | 1/Year | 0.00156 | 0.001092 | 0.002028 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
6 | mortality rate old | 1/Year | 0.03694 | 0.025858 | 0.048022 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
7 | reference migration rate young ^ | Dmnl | -4 | -5.2 | -2.8 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
8 | reference mid migration rate | 1/Year | 0.011 | 0.0077 | 0.0143 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
9 | reference old migration rate ^ | 1/Year | -0.022 | -0.0286 | -0.0154 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Land Use | time to adjust fertililsation intensity | Year | 4 | 2.8 | 5.2 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
11 | fertilisation intensity change ^ | Dmnl | -0.1 | -0.13 | -0.07 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
12 | agriculture to forest land allocation time | Year | 2.4 | 1.68 | 3.12 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
13 | forest to protected land allocation time | Year | 592 | 414.4 | 769.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
14 | forest to protected change | 1/Year | 27 | 18.9 | 35.1 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
15 | forest to agriculture change | Dmnl | 0.4 | 0.28 | 0.52 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
16 | forest to agriculture land allocation time | Year | 18.6 | 13.02 | 24.18 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
17 | forest to housing land allocation time | Year | 1000 | 700 | 1300 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
18 | agriculture to housing land allocation time | Year | 1000 | 700 | 1300 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
19 | average land per agriculture business | hectare/structure | 17.3 | 12.11 | 22.49 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Housing | housing build delay | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
21 | housing demolition rate * | fraction/Year | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | asymm | ||||||||||||||||||||
22 | social housing build delay | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
23 | fraction of rented houses | fraction (Dmnl) | 0.09 | 0.063 | 0.117 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
24 | fraction of mortgaged houses | fraction (Dmnl) | 0.19 | 0.133 | 0.247 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
25 | reference average house price | dollar | 685000 | 479500 | 890500 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
26 | number of times each tourist house occupied per year | 1/Year | 52 | 36.4 | 67.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
27 | Economy | fraction of land under regenerative agriculture | fraction (Dmnl) | 0.05 | 0.035 | 0.065 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
28 | productivity factor ag | 1/job | 145.7 | 101.99 | 189.41 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
29 | capital input ag | dollars/Year | 2767.84 | 1937.488 | 3598.192 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
30 | average jobs per business (agriculture) | jobs/structure/Year | 1.45 | 1.015 | 1.885 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
31 | reference jobs fraction (agriculture) | jobs/people/Year | 0.18 | 0.126 | 0.234 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
32 | productivity factor tourism | 1/job | 421.7 | 295.19 | 548.21 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
33 | capital input tourism | dollars/Year | 928124 | 649686.8 | 1206561.2 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
34 | average jobs per business (tourism) | jobs/structure/Year | 3.71 | 2.597 | 4.823 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
35 | reference jobs fraction (tourism) | jobs/people/Year | 0.279638 | 0.1957466 | 0.3635294 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
36 | non-local retail demand | Dmnl | 1.2 | 0.84 | 1.56 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
37 | productivity factor other | 1/job | 700 | 490 | 910 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
38 | capital input other | dollars/Year | 138131 | 96691.7 | 179570.3 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
39 | average jobs per business (other) | jobs/structure/Year | 3.66 | 2.562 | 4.758 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
40 | reference jobs fraction (other) | jobs/people/Year | 0.22 | 0.154 | 0.286 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
41 | elasticity q1 | Dmnl | 0.25 | 0.175 | 0.325 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
42 | elasticity q2 | Dmnl | 0.75 | 0.525 | 0.975 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
43 | Tourism | probability of catastrophic bushfire elsewhere in Victoria | Dmnl | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
44 | tourist return delay | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
45 | tourist bus frequency * | bus/Year | 0 | 0 | 30 | asymm | ||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Biodiversity | species area curve coefficient | species/hectares | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
47 | species area curve exponent | Dmnl | 0.86 | 0.602 | 1.118 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
48 | impact of climate damage on biodiversity | Dmnl | 1.00091 | 0.700637 | 1.301183 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
49 | INIT species richness | species | 4637 | 3245.9 | 6028.1 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Climate Change | cultural burning goal | Dmnl | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
51 | cultural burning adjustment time | Year | 15 | 10.5 | 19.5 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
52 | climate damage nonlinearity | Dmnl | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
53 | climate damage scale | Dmnl | 0.013 | 0.0091 | 0.0169 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Inequality | disability fraction | Dmnl | 0.177 | 0.1239 | 0.2301 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
55 | intergenerational risk factor | structure/people | 1.8 | 1.26 | 2.34 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Health and Wellbeing | disease burden before WW | Year/people | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
57 | excess disease burden from lowered healthcare access | fraction (Dmnl) | 1.103 | 0.7721 | 1.4339 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
58 | accident coefficient | people | -19.25 | -25.025 | -13.475 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Telecommunications | demand per location | connections/structure | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
60 | households with internet access fraction | fraction (Dmnl) | 0.77 | 0.539 | 1.001 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
61 | tower investment responsiveness * | Dmnl | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | asymm | ||||||||||||||||||||
62 | tower build delay time | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
63 | fixed wireless user limit | connections/tower | 60 | 42 | 78 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
64 | maximum speed per connection | Mbps | 75 | 52.5 | 97.5 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
65 | Infrastructure | funding lag Forrest Common | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
66 | funding lag GTOC | Year | 5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
67 | funding lag MTB Trails | Year | 0.5 | 0.35 | 0.65 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
68 | funding lag Wastewater | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
69 | funding lag CFA Truck | Year | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
70 | build delay Forrest Common | Year | 0.5 | 0.35 | 0.65 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
71 | build delay GTOC | Year | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
72 | build delay MTB Trails | Year | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
73 | build delay Wastewater | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
74 | build delay CFA Truck | Year | 0.5 | 0.35 | 0.65 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
75 | build time Forrest Common | Year | 0.5 | 0.35 | 0.65 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
76 | build time GTOC | Year | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
77 | build time MTB Trails | Year | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
78 | build time Wastewater | Year | 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
79 | build time CFA Truck | Year | 0.25 | 0.175 | 0.325 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
80 | Transport | fraction of population who would choose to travel by bus | fraction (Dmnl) | 0.35 | 0.245 | 0.455 | ±30% | |||||||||||||||||||
81 | bus frequency | trip/Year | 52 | 36.4 | 67.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
82 | average number of bus trips per year | trip/Year | 156 | 109.2 | 202.8 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
83 | number of car trips per year per car | trip/(vehicle*Year) | 654 | 457.8 | 850.2 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
84 | cost of petrol | dollars/litre | 1.47 | 1.029 | 1.911 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
85 | average litres of petrol per 100km | litre | 11.1 | 7.77 | 14.43 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
86 | average trip distance | Km | 19 | 13.3 | 24.7 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
87 | trips per tourist | trip/people | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
88 | allowable number of load cycles | trip/Year | 100,000,000 | 70000000 | 130000000 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
89 | deterioration multiplier | Dmnl | 1.2 | 0.84 | 1.56 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
90 | road quality nonlinearity factor | Dmnl | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
91 | road quality multiplier | Dmnl | 8.6 | 6.02 | 11.18 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
92 | service life of road | Year | 30 | 21 | 39 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
93 | ageing nonlinearity factor | Dmnl | 1.42 | 0.994 | 1.846 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
94 | age of pavement | Year | 10 | 7 | 13 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
95 | annual probability of flood | Dmnl | 0.01 | 0.007 | 0.013 | ±30% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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