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This workbook uses Maddison data on the Real GDP per person for many countries over long periods of time to illustrate concepts and issues about economic growth.
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Economic growth is defined as the percentage change in GDP per person from one year to the next.
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Using GDP per person to measure economic performance is not perfect, but it is commonly accepted.
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The data in this workbook illustrate two key facts about economic growth:
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1) There is tremendous variation in the long run economic performance of different countries.
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2) Economies can speed up and slow down.
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Put another way, economic growth is neither automatic nor guaranteed.
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In order to analyze the data, we need to explain a few basic ideas.
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1) The rate of growth (or growth rate) of a variable is its percentage change from one time period to the next.
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Example: x increases from 2 to 2.1 from one year to the next.
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The percentage change is (2.1-2)/2 = 5% per year.
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This is the rate of growth.
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2) The Rule of 70 tells you approximately how long it will take for a value to double, given a constant growth rate.
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Time to Double = 70/Growth Rate
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At 10% per year, it will take 70/10 = 7 years to double.
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At 5% per year, it will take 70/5 = 14 years to double.
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3) If we compute a difference in growth rates, we get percentage point differences.
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The difference between a 10% and 3% growth rate is 7 percentage points (% pts).
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In finance, a "point" is a percentage point and a "basis point" is 1/100th of a point. 100 basis points equals one percentage point.
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4) Seemingly small changes in growth rates can have big effects over long periods of time.
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Suppose a country grows at 2% per year instead of 1% per year.
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Is this a big difference? After all, 1% pt doesn't seem like much.
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In fact, over time, this 1% pt will be HUGE.
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Instead of doubling in 35 years with the 2% per year growth rate, it will take 70 years to double.
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A mutual fund charging a "tiny" 1.25% fee is actually extremely expensive.
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