Hearthstone arena probabilities
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ABCDEFG
1
Power differenceProbability stronger player wins
2
050.00%
3
0.0150.00%
4
0.150.00%
5
0.2550.00%
6
0.550.00%
7
0.7550.00%
8
9
10
Probability of different final records given power
11
Record00.250.50.750.90.999
12
0-312.50%12.50%12.50%12.50%12.50%12.50%
13
1-318.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%
14
2-318.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%
15
3-315.63%15.63%15.63%15.63%15.63%15.63%
16
4-311.72%11.72%11.72%11.72%11.72%11.72%
17
5-38.20%8.20%8.20%8.20%8.20%8.20%
18
6-35.47%5.47%5.47%5.47%5.47%5.47%
19
7-33.52%3.52%3.52%3.52%3.52%3.52%
20
8-32.20%2.20%2.20%2.20%2.20%2.20%
21
9-31.34%1.34%1.34%1.34%1.34%1.34%
22
10-30.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%
23
11-30.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%
24
12-20.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%
25
12-10.15%0.15%0.15%0.15%0.15%0.15%
26
12-00.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%
27
28
29
Fraction of players at different power levels at each record
30
Record00.250.50.750.999
31
0-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
32
0-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
33
0-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
34
0-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
35
1-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
36
1-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
37
1-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
38
1-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
39
2-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
40
2-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
41
2-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
42
2-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
43
3-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
44
3-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
45
3-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
46
3-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
47
4-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
48
4-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
49
4-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
50
4-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
51
5-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
52
5-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
53
5-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
54
5-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
55
6-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
56
6-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
57
6-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
58
6-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
59
7-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
60
7-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
61
7-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
62
7-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
63
8-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
64
8-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
65
8-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
66
8-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
67
9-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
68
9-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
69
9-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
70
9-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
71
10-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
72
10-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
73
10-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
74
10-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
75
11-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
76
11-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
77
11-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
78
11-320.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
79
12-020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
80
12-120.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
81
12-220.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
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X=0
X=1
X=3
X=5
Sheet9
X=10
X=100