Animal-focused Metaculus tournament questions

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	Question sufficiently finalised?	Question	How is this question decision-relevant?	Operationalisation notes	Resolution notes	Actions

2		By December 31, 2030, will plant-based meat alternatives account for at least 10% of total meat sales in the United States (by dollar value)?	Is alt protein a good investment as an animal welfare intervention?	Can choose between dollar value sales or volume sales. Have defined plant-based alts to mean ALL plant protein including faux meat. Sticking to retail sales for now.	Volume data not available. Dollar value data available in GFI report https://gfi.org/marketresearch/
3		By December 31, 2040, what proportion of global fish sales (in tonnes) will be produced from aquaculture (as opposed to wild caught fish)?	Working from the assumption that a wild-caught fish overall has a better quality of life than a farmed fish, assessing aquaculture's likelihood to grow could help orgs decide how many resources should be put towards farmed fish welfare	Proportion might not change too much in one year's time, so could be boring to forecast - can include as an appendix style question. Rephrase this question so that there is no comparison to wild caught fish.	According to the OECD-FAO Outlook database. https://www.agri-outlook.org/en/data.html Access the full database to see past numbers and current forecast until 2034.
4		How much funding will the organisation, Screwworm Free Future, secure in the year 2026?	This question could show donors (not funders/regrantors) how lacking WAS is in funding, and could influence the cause areas they donate to.		Ask the founding teams?	CHECK WITH WAS PEOPLE WHETHER THIS IS A GOOD QUESTION
5		How much funding will the organisation, Wild Animal Initative, secure in the year 2026?	This question could show donors (not funders/regrantors) how lacking WAS is in funding, and could influence the cause areas they donate to.		Wild Animal Initiative Inc - Nonprofit Explorer - ProPublica
6		"How many screwworm cases will be confirmed in Mexico between now and February 2027?"	- Can help inform Screwworm Free Future's strategy - Could influence funding for Screwworm Free Future or other related orgs/projects that might come up		SENASICA dashboard OR USDA: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/stop-screwworm/current-status
7		Will 50% of the Top 20 major EU food retailers have a shrimp welfare commitment (including Eyestalk Ablation and Humane Slaughter) by the end of 2027?	Depending on how likely Shrimp Welfare Project is to be successful at expanding their corporate commitments into the US, funders may choose to allocate more or fewer resources	Shrimp Welfare Project's path to helping 100 billion shrimps per year — EA Forum Major EU food retailers listed here.
8		By 2035, how many major AI companies’ ethics and risk policies will contain distinct mentions of nonhuman animal welfare? By 2035, how many of Anthropic, Google, Meta, OpenAI, xAI, DeepSeek, Alibaba will include mentions of animal welfare in their AI constitutions?	What is the level of risk that AI systems will perpetuate current neglect of nonhuman animal welfare, and what interventions will be successful in preventing that?	Can define "major AI companies" to refer to: Anthropic Google Meta OpenAI	One example is Claude's constitution Refer to major AI companies' constitution / policies
9		"Will at least one cultivated meat product receive regulatory approval for commercial sale (as either blended or standalone products) for human consumption in the EU by February 28, 2027?"	Should we fund CM development?		EU Novel Food Union List; EUR-Lex Easier source: What is cultivated meat? \| The Good Food Institute
10		"How many additional US states will enact bans on cultivated meat by February 28, 2027?"	Should we lobby for CM legality?	Define bans as bans or moratariums that are in effect on Feb 28, 2027. Bans could be either on manufacturing or sales. Might need to state the states that currently ban cultured meat. A state that currently has a ban and ends up reversing that ban from now till Feb 2027 does not affect how many NEW states enact bans in this period.	State of the Industry: Cultivated meat, seafood, and ingredients \| GFI
11		What percentage of companies will fulfill their 2026 cage-free commitments?	If the percentage is high, then that indicates cage-free commitments are an effective intervention and will be valuable info for welfare orgs		Chicken Watch Progress Tracker Under the "Issue" field, select "Cage-free" only. Under "Victory Date", specify the range to be 2026-2026.
12		What percentage of companies will fulfill their 2026 BCC commitments?	Same as above		Chicken Watch Progress Tracker Under the "Issue" field, select "Broiler" only. Under "Victory Date", specify the range to be 2026-2026.
13		"How much venture capital will be invested in black soldier fly companies globally in 2026?"	Not super relevant but could be a "fun" question forecast		Market size estimates vary significantly across reports, so VC invested may be the way to go - Crunchbase, PitchBook David suggests picking a single report for resolution for market size.
14		What % of hen flock will be sexed with in-ovo sexing technology in the US and in the EU by Feb 2027? OR How many countries would have adopted in-ovo sexing technology by Feb 2027? OR How many hatcheries would have in-ovo sexing machines installed by Feb 2027?	Helping assess the promise of this intervention and how effective funding will be here *one caveat is that success of in-ovo sexing doesn't necessarily point to any specific intervention, companies could adopt this for many reasons that have nothing to do with decisions made by animal welfare orgs	Two part question: 1) US, 2) Europe. % hen flock used by source so easier to resolve.	In-Ovo Sexing: Market Penetration and Forecast
15		In kg/capita, what will be India's meat consumption by Feb 2027?	If India's meat consumption is due to rise, maybe advocating for consumer behaviour change on meat consumption would be worthwhile. Not worthwhile if there's no increase expected.		Release of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics-2025
16		In kg/capita, what will be Mexico's meat consumption by Feb 2027?	If Mexico's meat consumption is due to rise, maybe advocating for consumer behaviour change on meat consumption would be worthwhile. Not worthwhile if there's no increase expected.
17		By Feb 2027, will FURA in Singapore introduce another cultivated meat dish on their menu?			MENU — FURA
18		By Feb 2027, what is the level of government investment in alternative proteins in Singapore?
19		Which precision fermentation / cultivated food ingredients will reach price parity with animal equivalents by year X		Reinstein: I don't think 'which' questions work in Metaculus. You'd need 1 question per ingredient. And needs more operationalization for 'price parity' -- in what market/country? How do we define like-for-like units (weight? volume? cells? protein? component of typical output?)
20		Will Nueva Pescanova's octopus farm in Gran Canaria, Spain gain regulatory approval for octopus production by February 28, 2027?
21		Forecasts of overall farmed animal welfare spending for a given future year, inflation adjusted.
22		What will be the average production cost (per edible kg) of cultured chicken meat in the given years, expressed in value units, across all large-scale plants in the world?	See Unjournal pivotal question ea forum post
23		By February 28, 2027, what mean score will gpt-5-mini achieve on the Animal Harm Benchmark?		How to define "leading LLM"? Should we instead just pick one of the leading LLM's today and see how they score on the AHB? Suggest focusing on Claude's latest model at that time since they seem to be the most animal-forward LLM in terms of their constitution. Waiting on Jasmine (creator of AHB) to get back to me on this.	Get current and future scores from AHB development team
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