Mark's MoviePass Model
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Mark's MoviePass Model
Monitor CAC vs. LTX... and the Rule of 40?
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CohortAug 2017Sep 2017Oct 2017Nov 2017Dec 2017Jan 2018Feb 2018Mar 2018Apr 2018May 2018Jun 2018Jul 2018Aug 2018Sep 2018Oct 2018Nov 2018Dec 2018Jan 2019Feb 2019Mar 2019
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Net New Subs300,000180,000170,000240,000510,000500,000400,000250,000220,000190,000195,000200,000200,000200,000200,000350,000500,000200,000200,000200,000
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Total Subs320,000500,000670,000910,0001,420,0001,920,0002,320,0002,570,0002,790,0002,980,0003,175,0003,375,0003,575,0003,775,0003,975,0004,325,0004,825,0005,025,0005,225,0005,425,000
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Monthly Sub $
Assumes ~1.6 million $9.95 monthly subs on Mar 22 & 2% monthly churn >>>
6,666,5008,457,50010,447,50012,437,500$15,920,000$16,845,350$18,697,443$20,213,994$21,749,964$23,304,965$24,828,866$26,322,288$27,785,843$30,712,626$35,073,373$36,361,906$37,624,668$38,862,174
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Annual Sub $
Assumes $89.95 per year as of Mar 23, 2018 >>>
05,397,00021,700,00021,000,000$34,000,000$12,598,250
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Merchant Bank Cash Release
$3,156,508$3,156,508$3,156,508$3,156,508$3,156,508$3,156,508$3,066,558$2,614,942$1,903,275$986,608$209,971
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Discount Per Ticket$0.04$0.07$0.10$0.12$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.15$0.15$0.16$0.16$0.17$0.17$0.18$0.18
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Ticket Discounts$59,578$141,609$315,674$512,192$670,474$538,672$605,246$741,294$1,028,800$938,643$609,274$606,726$575,325$1,040,871$1,494,890$1,199,775$1,369,370$1,224,806
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Other Revenue$106,844$161,241$279,563$420,000$483,000$540,398$592,524$639,204$687,841$738,482$790,066$842,608$896,122$984,776$1,109,610$1,167,160$1,225,750$1,285,395
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Total Incoming $$19,895,21321,594,49223,466,60524,982,09026,228,20627,771,62329,257,29032,738,27337,677,87338,728,84040,219,78741,372,375
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Recognized Revs $$5,987,172$7,380,287$8,317,153
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TOTAL Tickets (U.S.)
Total U.S. Tickets Sold; Accounts for seasonality >>>
50,112,360158,988,764197,191,011104,849,032110,913,78397,497,266108,272,934115,107,709153,000,000134,000,00078,203,40075,255,60064,831,200110,000,000136,000,000106,946,012113,132,05999,447,211
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% of All Tickets Purchased *
Historical data PER MGT >>>
1.1%1.4%2.1%3.2%4.7%4.3%4.3%4.6%4.8%5.0%5.2%5.4%5.5%5.9%6.5%6.6%6.7%6.8%
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Tickets Purchased by MoviePass
Total tickets purchased with MoviePass >>>
562,9852,245,8354,064,2433,355,1695,157,4914,143,6344,655,7365,294,9557,348,5696,704,5914,061,8284,044,8433,595,7806,505,4428,793,4717,057,4997,607,6106,804,476
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Tix/Sub/Month0.82.52.91.72.21.61.71.82.01.71.00.90.81.31.61.21.21.1
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Ticket Expense
Assumes $11 per movie >>>
$6,192,835$24,704,185$44,706,673$36,906,859$56,732,400$45,579,972$51,213,098$58,244,501$66,137,125$60,341,320$36,556,448$36,403,585$32,362,022$58,548,979$79,141,237$63,517,492$68,468,489$61,240,283
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Operating Expenses
Includes stock-based compensation (large / dilutive to shareholders) >>>
$900,000$2,000,000$3,500,000$4,500,000$5,400,000$5,800,000$6,200,000$6,600,000$7,000,000$7,400,000$7,800,000$8,200,000$8,600,000$9,000,000$9,400,000$9,800,000$10,200,000$10,600,000
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Operating Profit/Loss-$1,105,663-$19,323,898-$39,889,520
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Cash Profit / Loss-$7,092,835-$26,704,185-$48,206,673-$41,406,859-$62,132,400-$51,379,972-$37,517,885-$40,093,501-$46,514,011-$39,602,722-$14,971,733-$13,675,454-$8,548,224-$31,744,148-$48,248,422-$32,685,377-$37,462,093-$30,257,936
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Cumulative Cash Burn, starting June 11 >>>
-$31,009,341-$70,612,063-$85,583,796-$99,259,250-$107,807,474-$139,551,622-$187,800,044-$220,485,421-$257,947,515-$288,205,451
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FYI, $50M was raised under the ATM as of June 4th.
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AssumptionsForecast On...
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Monthly Sub $
Assumes ~1.6 million $9.95 monthly subs on Mar 22 & 2% monthly churn
Apr 6-$6,601,875-$21,555,178-$41,208,796-$106,736,793-$213,940,413-$288,776,395-$306,794,167-$358,046,062-$378,682,353-$526,075,806-$703,172,426-$703,172,426-$703,172,426-$703,172,426
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Annual Sub $
Assumes $89.95 per year as of Mar 23, 2018
Mar 22-$6,601,875-$25,763,900-$38,817,518-$92,226,206-$183,257,720-$246,764,259-$259,992,257-$304,340,888-$321,249,479-$457,718,881-$608,811,407-$608,811,407-$608,811,407-$608,811,407
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Total Tickets
Total U.S. Tickets Sold; Accounts for seasonality
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% Movies Seen
6% as of Mar 1; Moving to 10% by Dec 31
June 13 - MoviePass announces that it exceeded 3M paying subscribers.
The company still expects to exceed 5M paying subscribers by the end of 2018.
MoviePass says it currently represents more than 5% of total U.S. box office receipts
and is close to 8% of box office during peak weeks. The ticket subscription service says
that when it actively advertises select films to its subscribers it has seen box office
receipts push to over 30% share.
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Ticket Expense
Assumes $11 per movie
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Operating Expenses
Includes stock-based compensation (large / dilutive to shareholders)
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