Mark's MoviePass Model
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABAC
1
Mark's MoviePass Model
For more, visit www.markgomesstocks.wordpress.com !
Monitor CAC vs. LTX... and the Rule of 40?
2
CohortAug 2017Sep 2017Oct 2017Nov 2017Dec 2017Jan 2018Feb 2018Mar 2018Apr 2018May 2018Jun 2018Jul 2018Aug 2018Sep 2018Oct 2018Nov 2018Dec 2018Jan 2019Feb 2019Mar 2019
3
Net New Subs300,000180,000170,000240,000510,000475,000400,000170,000120,000225,000450,000225,000225,000225,000225,000350,000500,000200,000200,000200,000
4
Total Subs320,000500,000670,000910,0001,420,0001,895,0002,295,0002,465,0002,585,0002,810,0003,260,0003,485,0003,710,0003,935,0004,160,0004,510,0005,010,0005,210,0005,410,0005,610,000
5
Monthly Sub $
Assumes ~1.6 million $9.95 monthly subs on Mar 22 & 2% monthly churn >>>
6,666,5008,457,50010,447,50012,188,750$15,920,000$16,447,350$17,312,403$19,204,905$23,298,307$25,071,091$26,808,419$28,511,001$30,179,531$33,058,440$37,372,271$38,614,826$39,832,529$41,025,879
6
Annual Sub $
Assumes $89.95 per year as of Mar 23, 2018 >>>
05,397,00021,700,00021,000,000$34,000,000$9,000,250
7
Merchant Bank Cash Release
$3,036,575$3,036,575$3,036,575$3,036,575$3,036,575$3,036,575$2,946,625$2,495,008$1,783,342$866,675$150,004
11
Discount Per Ticket$0.04$0.07$0.10$0.12$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.15$0.15$0.16$0.16$0.17$0.17$0.18$0.18
12
Ticket Discounts$60,227$143,151$319,113$511,030$670,474$538,672$605,246$725,179$1,095,896$1,005,528$655,957$656,123$624,646$1,126,035$1,610,328$1,290,524$1,470,945$1,313,999
13
Other Revenue (Ads, etc.)$108,254$163,368$283,251$420,000$483,000$523,966$554,968$609,305$713,950$770,857$828,832$887,889$948,045$1,038,086$1,164,705$1,223,312$1,282,975$1,343,709
14
Total Incoming $$18,472,61620,539,38925,108,15226,847,47628,293,20830,055,01331,752,22135,222,56140,147,30441,128,66242,586,44943,683,586
15
Recognized Revs $$5,989,231$7,383,957$8,324,280
16
TOTAL Tickets (U.S.)
Total U.S. Tickets Sold; Accounts for seasonality >>>
50,112,360158,988,764197,191,011104,849,032110,913,78397,497,266108,272,934115,107,709153,000,000134,000,00078,203,40075,255,60064,831,200110,000,000136,000,000106,946,012113,132,05999,447,211
17
% of All Tickets Purchased *
Historical data PER MGT >>>
1.1%1.4%2.1%3.2%4.7%4.3%4.3%4.50%5.1%5.4%5.6%5.8%6.0%6.4%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.3%
18
Tickets Purchased by MoviePass
Total tickets purchased with MoviePass >>>
562,9852,245,8354,064,2433,355,1695,157,4914,143,6344,655,7365,179,8477,827,8287,182,3394,373,0454,374,1543,904,0377,037,7189,472,5167,591,3178,171,9157,299,993
19
Tix/Sub/Month0.82.52.91.82.21.71.81.82.11.81.01.00.81.31.61.21.31.1
20
Ticket Expense
Assumes $11 per movie >>>
$6,192,835$24,704,185$44,706,673$36,906,859$56,732,400$45,579,972$51,213,098$56,978,316$70,450,456$64,641,055$39,357,407$39,367,385$35,136,336$63,339,464$85,252,646$68,321,852$73,547,233$65,699,934
21
Operating Expenses
Includes stock-based compensation (large / dilutive to shareholders) >>>
$900,000$2,000,000$3,500,000$4,500,000$5,400,000$5,800,000$6,200,000$6,600,000$7,000,000$7,400,000$7,800,000$8,200,000$8,600,000$9,000,000$9,400,000$9,800,000$10,200,000$10,600,000
22
Operating Profit/Loss-$1,103,604-$19,320,228-$39,882,393
23
MoviePass Films Profit/(Loss)-$1,500,000-$2,000,000-$2,750,000-$3,500,000-$4,000,000-$4,500,000-$4,500,000-$4,500,000-$4,500,000-$4,500,000
24
MovieFone-$500,000-$500,000-$425,000-$350,000-$250,000-$100,000$50,000$150,000$100,000$100,000$100,000
25
Cash Profit / Loss-$7,092,835-$26,704,185-$48,206,673-$41,406,859-$62,132,400-$51,379,972-$38,940,481-$40,502,352-$50,805,729-$44,157,004-$18,577,624-$17,975,797-$12,947,540-$38,670,278-$56,510,334-$39,709,848-$44,794,110-$36,966,343
26
Cumulative Cash Burn, starting June 11 >>>
-$33,870,486-$78,027,490-$96,605,114-$114,580,911-$127,528,451-$166,198,729-$222,709,063-$262,418,912-$307,213,021-$344,179,365
27
FYI, $50M was raised under the ATM as of June 4th.
28
AssumptionsForecast On...As of June 24, they need to raise $60M before the end of July. Then, they need to raise one-month's forward cash burn, a month in advance.
29
Monthly Sub $
Assumes ~1.6 million $9.95 monthly subs on Mar 22 & 2% monthly churn
Apr 6-$6,601,875-$21,555,178-$41,208,796-$106,736,793-$213,940,413-$288,776,395-$306,794,167-$358,046,062-$378,682,353-$526,075,806-$703,172,426-$703,172,426-$703,172,426-$703,172,426
30
Annual Sub $
Assumes $89.95 per year as of Mar 23, 2018
Mar 22-$6,601,875-$25,763,900-$38,817,518-$92,226,206-$183,257,720-$246,764,259-$259,992,257-$304,340,888-$321,249,479-$457,718,881-$608,811,407-$608,811,407-$608,811,407-$608,811,407
31
Total Tickets
Total U.S. Tickets Sold; Accounts for seasonality
32
% Movies Seen
6% as of Mar 1; Moving to 10% by Dec 31
June 13 - MoviePass announces that it exceeded 3M paying subscribers.
The company still expects to exceed 5M paying subscribers by the end of 2018.
MoviePass says it currently represents more than 5% of total U.S. box office receipts
and is close to 8% of box office during peak weeks. The ticket subscription service says
that when it actively advertises select films to its subscribers it has seen box office
receipts push to over 30% share.
33
Ticket Expense
Assumes $11 per movie
34
Operating Expenses
Includes stock-based compensation (large / dilutive to shareholders)
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
Loading...
Main menu