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Paul's Value/GARP ideas for further research
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I thought it would be interesting to keep track of how noteworthy value/GARP ideas from my morning reports about results/trading statements subsequently perform in the market. NB! These are NOT share recommendations, or financial advice. This is just personal opinion & commentary - and a reminder of shares I like, so these can be revisited as potential investments. It's DEFINITELY NOT a portfolio, but just a list of possible value/GARP investing ideas for further research. These are all long-term, mostly value type situations. So I'm looking 1-2+ years ahead with these shares. NB. This page is NOT edited - so all original entries are left here to see, warts & all!
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9am on date24 Jul 2017(mildly positive, positive, or strongly positive)
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DateCompany NameTickerMkt Cap £mOffer price thenGoogle price now% changeConviction level?Why I think the shares could possibly be good valueUpdates
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14 Jan 2013HydrogenLON:HYDG10.586.0033.85-60.64%PositivePositive end to 2012 in Trad Stat today. Low PER: 7.9 times fc 2013. Great divi at 5.2%
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14 Jan 2013Networkers IntlLON:NWKI#N/A37.00Taken over by MatchTech#VALUE!Mildly positiveIn line Trad Stat. Fwd PER 8-9. Well covered 3% yield. Price not rebounded from earlier profits warning.
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16 Jan 2013N BrownLON:BWNG829.6362.10292.70-19.17%Mildly positiveExcellent Trad Stat - LFL sales up 7.9%! PEr of 13, so not cheap. But good growth & steadily rising divi. Good long term investment.
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16 Jan 2013Bloomsbury PublishingLON:BMY132.2116.75175.0049.89%Closed off 4 July 2014. I'm getting nervous about rapid changes in publishing - Amazon & self-publishing rapidly rising.Positive IMS. fc PER 8.9. 5% divi yield. Net cash of £7.7m
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21 Jan 2013PortmeirionLON:PMP99.7547.00927.5069.56%PositiveReports in line 2012. Good long-term value. Steady growth, decent divi, and v strong bal sheet.
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24 Jan 2013KBC Advanced TechLON:KBC#N/A65.00107.0064.62%Closed off on 12 Dec 2013 - price looks high enough to me.Tr Stat today - slightly ahead of expects for 2012. Outlook positive. Moved net cash +ve. 2013 PER only 8.4.26 Mar 2013 - reviewed in my Blog - Results slightly ahead of expectations, but big tax charge (one-off?). Huge net cash, but due to csutomer prepayment. Adj net cash is £1m. Outlook positive.
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30 Jan 2013Renew HoldingsLON:RNWH271.392.00163.5177.73%Closed off on 26 Nov 2013 - price now high enough.Solid Q1 Tr Stat. Order book "strong". Net debt reduced to £4m. 3p divi. PER 6.9 fc 2013 EPS.
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6 Feb 2013Clean Air PowerLON:CAP#N/A8.754.15-52.57%Sold - hasn't worked, and rescue fundraising at 4p augurs badly. Taken the loss on 4 Jul 2014.Blue sky. Good trading statement, 2012 in line, 2013 good start.
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7 Feb 2013UtilitywiseLON:UTW54.2102.70216.00110.32%Closed off on 26 Nov 2013 - price now high enough.In line trading statement. GARP share. Net cash.Closed this one off far too early - it's since gone on 289p (22 Jan 2014), and a huge Director buy just announced!
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11 Feb 2013LatchwaysLON:LTC#N/A1,028.00780.00-24.12%Closed off at 780p on 11 Oct 2014. Latest profit warning has unnerved me.Solid tr stat. Excellent bal sheet with net cash. 3.5% divi yield. V strong op profit margin. Seems a good steady company for long-term. Update 11 Oct 2014 - - not looking cheap at all now on current forecasts. One to revisit later methinks.
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20 Feb 2013STV GroupLON:STVG149.1128.00307.00139.84%Closed off on 26 Nov 2013 - price now high enough.Per morning report on Stocko, I bought today at 128p. EPS slightly below fc, but PER still only 4. Net debt down sig to £45m, pen deficit also reduced sharply. Divi should resume fairly soon. PER of 6 looks achievable, for a share price of 200p.
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25 Mar 2013VislinkLON:VLK#N/A30.50#N/A#N/APositiveAs mentioned in today's Blog I bought some shares at 30.5p. Reported 2.5p EPS, ahead of forecasts, so PER 12. 4% dividend yield. Net cash almost 25% of market cap. Growth plans on track to grow t/o & profit to £80m / £8m by 2014.
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25 Mar 2013FairpointLON:FRP4.8112.909.89-91.24%PositiveGood conf call with mgt. Great cash generation, low PER, 5.2% divi yield. Strong bal sheet. Seems to be an ethical operator in more regulated sector these days. Mgt seemed serious & competent.
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25 Mar 2013SpaceandpeopleLON:SAL5.3110.0031.20-71.64%PositiveTerrific results. Fwd PER only 9, Divi yield 4.5%, sound bal sheet. Growth plans - international roll-out, as now dominant in UK & German shopping centres. Nice niche business. GARP share.Profit warning April 2014. Worth sticking with in my opinion.
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10 Apr 2013Deltex MedicalLON:DEMG9.814.503.62-75.03%Positive - speculativeAs reported in my Blog, I bought some personally today at 14.38p. Interesting announcement about USA Govt approval for rapid reimbursal to surgeons, could open up US market.I no longer hold. Taking too long to commercialise, but might leave it in here as potentially interesting for the future.
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12 Apr 2013SilverdellLON:SID40.416.490.00-100.00%Company gone bust. Not clear why.In line Tr Stat. See my Blog entry for this date.
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30 Apr 2013PuriCoreLON:PURI#N/A48.4531.00-36.02%Closed off on 19 Feb 2015 - hasn't worked. Unconvincing new strategic plan & poor use of cash.As per my Blog today, I bought a few. Just moved into EBITDA positive. Growth potential. NB loans convertible at 40p.Now much better underpinned by 34p per share in net cash, following disposal of a profitable division. Hoping for return of cash & improved business plan.
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30 May 2013VolexLON:VLX58.2102.00114.8812.63%Closed off on 26 Nov 2013 - poor results, uncertain outlook, and bank debt now too high.As per my Blog today, I've bought some around 100p. Turnaround potential, as cost-cutting already done & better sales pipeline for H2 expected. Good divi yield maintained.Poor interims, bank debt now too high. Outlook uncertain.
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20 Jun 2013Helphire/ReddeLON:HHR#N/A3.506.2077.14%Closed off 4 Jul 2014, as I don't like the new business model of ambulance chasing personal injury claims. Shares done 1 for 10 consolidation & name changed to Redde.Good tr update. Bal sheet now v strong & drs down to 4 months. Resumption of divis & trading in line.
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20 Jun 2013PennantLON:PEN25.275.0083.0010.67%PositiveGood tr update yesterday. Can be bought a bit cheaper than 75p.
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24 Jun 2013CohortLON:CHRT159.4150.00221.6547.77%Closed off on 3 Dec 2013. Price now up with events, in my opinion.Excellent results today, on a low PER even on a normalised tax chg. £16m net cash on bal sheet. Progressive dividend policy, seeking acquisitions. Good margins & outlook. Fair value look 200-250p in my opinion. Bought some at 150p today.
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25 Jun 2013African Barrick GoldLON:ABG#N/A109.70#N/A#N/ASpeculativeOK, this one is a bit of a punt, as I don't know much about the gold mining sector. Just looks oversold to me, and with nice geared upside if gold price recovers.
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17 Jul 2013The Mission MarketingLON:TMMG34.126.5042.5060.38%Mildly positiveSee my Stockopedia reports 10 Jul & 12 Jul. Lost a couple of clients, but still decently profitable. Decent Director buying. Reinstating dividend. Don't like debt though, but it's not horrendous.
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31 Jul 2013IndigoVisionLON:IND13.4293.00220.00-24.91%PositiveAlthough an existing holding of mine, I'm happy to add it to this page today, as in my view the market has over-reacted to the profits warning, which seems to have been mainly due to large contracts slipping into next year at the last minute. Fwd PER now 10.6, and fwd Div Yield 4%. They should deliver better growth in 2013/14, because of new product launches, and beefed up sales team.
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31 Jul 2013Zanaga Iron OreLON:ZIOC16.311.0011.756.82%Closed off on 10 Oct 2014. Iron ore price now too low.Met mgt recently. Speculative - has big iron ore project, needs $2.5bn capex to progress. Market believes almost certainly won't happen. Glencore unexpextedly seem to be progressing the project. So multi-bagger upside. Downside covered mostly by 9p per share in net cash, and minimal cash burn. Hence downside copper bottomed. Although half cash now ear-marked for contribution to fniishing the Feasibility Study with Glencore.
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2 Aug 2013FiberwebLON:FWEB#N/A76.25102.3034.16%Closed off on 26 Nov 2013 - takeover bid completedSafe but boring company that looks good value to me - low PER, good divi yield, very strong Bal Sheet. Exposed to cyclical upturn in USA/UK economies. See my Blog entry for today - detailed review of their interim results.
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22 Aug 2013RobinsonLON:RBN25.6165.00139.90-15.21%MediumAlready risen a lot, but business performing well, and huge property assets. Growing dividend. See my Blog entry of 21 Aug 2013 for lots more detail. Good value long term (1 year+). Likely to use cash from property disposals to finance acquisitions in Europe.
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30 Aug 2013Sweett GroupLON:CSG#N/A42.0063.0050.00%Closed off on 3 Dec 2013 - results not as good as expected. Although I might revise this one, having clarified with the company some queries.Very bullish trading update 30 Aug 2013, see my Blog entry for that day. I bought stock at 42p on announcement that mgt see growth within 2 years to £100m turnover, and 7-8% profit margin. That would justify a much higher market cap than current £28m. I can see upside to perhaps £50-75m market cap within 2 years, if they achieve those figures?
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5 Sep 2013BowlevenLON:BLVN81.162.2525.00-59.84%SpeculativeI don't normally do oil stocks, but the sector has been in a bear market for some time, and I'm seeing signs of life. Hence my approach with this sector (where I have very little knowledge) is to follow proven shrewd sector experts with a long track record of getting a lot more right than wrong. This pick is chosen on that basis, hence me labelling it "speculative" I bought a few personally yesterday. This is today's price shown.
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24 Sep 2013Hargeaves ServicesLON:HSP108.4820.00776.00-5.37%Closed off on 4 Jul 2014 - not sure where this one is going, so best chop it out.As reported in my Blog today, looks cheap on a PER of 6.3, and reasonable divi yield, well covered. Net debt moderate, and has excellent track record of growing turnover & profits in recent years. Am meeting management later today, so will report back on Blog.
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5 Nov 2013Next Fifteen CommsLON:NFC332.473.70449.47509.86%Low-MediumAs reported in my Stockopedia report this morning, results are not as bad as feared after Pr Warn last week. Dividend raised, yield now quite good. Net debt down to £1.8m. Outlook statement positive. Scope for them to recover to 100p+ in my opinion.
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8 Nov 2013DebenhamsLON:DEB506.5102.0041.25-59.56%HighCheap on fundamentals (PER just over 10, divi yield 3.5%), but online sales growing fast (up 46%) now half the turnover of ASOS! Yet market cap much lower. Looks a bargain to me on re-rating due to internet growth.Warned on profit - poor Xmas trading compared with John Lewis & HoF. Mike Ashley mucking about with the shares & writing a Put Option.
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21 Nov 2013French ConnectionLON:FCCN36.837.7538.000.66%MediumFirst (relatively) positive Trad Stat in a long time issued today, giving credence to turnaround potential. Yet bizarrely, price has since fallen (after initial rise). I see this as a buying opportunity, given asset backing (esp. cash, barely changed on pr yr at £10m at seasonal low).
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12 Dec 2013CrestonLON:CRE#N/A82.000.00-100.00%Mildly positiveNot sure why share price has fallen back sharply. Now appears to be cheap, based on low fwd PER, and 3.6p dividend for this year, giving 4.4% yield. However, there are issues with the company, so this is only a small long position for me.CEO resigned & that drove up share price
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4 Jul 2014XaarLON:XAR303.4532.00390.00-26.69%MediumSeries of profit warnings, but large Director buys (£200k by R&D Director) suggest confidence in new product launches in late 2014 & beyond. Adoption cycle is in waves, so whilst declining now in ceramic tiles sector, new sectors should open up. Only 3% of addressable market has gone digital so far.
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4 Jul 2014SynetyLON:SNTY#N/A270.00#N/A#N/ASpeculativeEarly stage growth company, but compelling product offer & rapid growth (from low base). US launch imminent could transform the business. Has £6.5m cash, burning £250k pm, so enough to get to profit. High risk, so caution needed.
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4 Jul 2014BlinkxLON:BLNX#N/A32.5038.0016.92%Closed off on 17 July 2014, as too much uncertainty over the future of the business.High risk, but co has strong Bal Sheet, and may recover from disastrous market sentiment once dust has settled. Profit warning & deteriorating outlook. Edelman blog attack. high risk.5 Jul 2014 - Hmmm, not sure about this one, I might have got this wrong. Have sold two thirds of my real life holding in it, just holding a bit for fun now.
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4 Jul 2014AudioBoomLON:BOOM22.26.0013.90131.67%Closed off on 10 Oct 2014.This one really is a complete punt. It has website that is trying to be the YouTube of audio, but is well-established & looks promising. Valuation is bonkers, but someone like Google or Facebook might bid for it. Punt money only & v high risk. Not really value or GARP, so shouldn't really be here!! Update 10 Cot 2014 - had a very big rise, so am happy to watch from the sidelines for the time being.
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4 Jul 2014Topps TilesLON:TPT155.8109.2581.00-25.86%Mildly positiveHorrible Bal Sheet, but trading so well that it probably doesn't matter for now. +6% LFLs in a downbeat economy suggests they have significant competitive advantage.
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4 Jul 2014TescoLON:TSCO14,125.3291.40172.50-40.80%Mildly positiveI think the company has realised that they have to compete on price, and will get customers back quickly in my view.Hmm, having my doubts about this one. I have sold personally, but will leave it on here for the time being.
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4 Jul 2014FlyBeLON:FLYB75.7120.0034.94-70.88%PositiveGood turnaround, strong Bal Sheet following fundraising.Disappointing in the short term. However, disposal of surplus planes is caralyst for a recovery in due course (19 Feb 2015)
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4 Jul 2014SpaceandpeopleLON:SAL5.368.0031.20-54.12%PositiveSecond tranche - Sentiment is very poor (understandably) after unexpected profit warning in April, however in my view it is a fundamentally good company, with a good track record prior to April this year, and so should in time recover.
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4 Jul 2014Panmure GordonLON:PMR16.0160.0098.01-38.74%PositiveBig name broker, winning plenty of new business, but tiny market cap - not sure why. Strong Bal Sheet. Problems in USA now dealt with, and underlying profits were good in most recent results.
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4 Jul 2014NorcrosLON:NXR106.218.75170.00806.67%PositiveLooks very cheap to me - PER is only about 9. Scope for this to re-rate to 25-35p in due course, in my opinion. Reasonable divis whilst we wait too.
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6 Jul 2014CaffynsLON:CFYN14.0610.00490.00-19.67%PositiveNice long term, buy & forget value share. Reported 75p EPS for y/e 3/2014. Maybe 100p for this year? So low PER. Bal Sht stuffed full of freeholds. Downside is that family control it through extra voting rights held on Pref Shares. So it's a private co with a Listing. Pays reasonable divis though.
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6 Jul 2014Character GroupLON:CCT108.1209.00508.50143.30%PositiveToys co. Looks good value, but has the odd bad year. Nasty spread, so essential to buy well within spread.
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17 Jul 2014TungstenLON:TUNG79.4280.00209.63-25.13%Closed off on 19 Feb 2015 - disappointing short-term losses, and looks like it will need to raise more cash. I still like the long-term plan, but it might be better to sit this one out for the time being & see how things develop.Not a value share, so shouldn't really be here. However, I think this one has potentially massive upside if they are able to rapidly roll-out invoice discounting to a captive supplier base of large caps which already use their e-invoicing system. Definitely not for widows or orphans, but I think there's something exciting here, subject to mgt executing the business plan as hoped for.
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18 Jul 2014EssendenLON:ESS#N/A68.000.00-100.00%PositiveGood Tr Stat this morning, I've just bought 2p inside the spread at 68p. Looks reasonably priced, esp now Bal Sheet fixed with debt to equity deal a little while ago. Strong current trading & upbeat mgt speak. I think PER could be below 10 (no forecasts in mkt, so just my guesstimate)
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23 Jul 2014BooHooLON:BOO2,502.641.00218.00431.71%PositiveHave I gone mad, including this highly rated recent IPO here? No. It's actually a very good, rapidly growing business, that is already decently profitable. This is the new ASOS in my opinion. In fact, its profit margin is a good bit higher than ASOS, and sales are rapidly growing (c.£100m in 2013, f/c to be over £150m this year). It's on a fwd PER of 20 times next year's earnings, which is not over-priced at all for this rapidly growing international fashion website. New o/seas language sites are being launched all the time. I used to do business with "Pinstripe", the rag trade company behind BooHoo, and they are good people. I think this could be a 4-5 bagger from here, in the long run (3 years+), based on them achieving the target of £1bn turnover.Drat, a profit warning in Jan 2015. With hindsight, the forecasts from Zeus were far too high. However, it is still a great business, and very attractively priced at 25p, so I have averaged down & opened a new, second tranche on 19 Feb 2015.
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25 Jul 2014ScisysLON:SSY28.692.00101.2010.00%Mildly positive long termSee my SCV report on Stockopedia today - report on lunch with Directors y'day. I already hold this stock, and think it's a nice steady long term one to tuck away for a few years.
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28 Jul 2014KingfisherLON:KGF6,528.2298.00297.10-0.30%Positive long termPoor Q2 tr stat has smashed the share price. However, it has v strong Bal Sheet, with loads of f/h property, and some net cash. PER still reasonable. Geared play on French economic recovery, with downside protected by 3.8% divi yield & 2.7% equivalent yield from £200m p.a. share buybacks.
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19 Aug 2014MarstonsLON:MARS758.4150.20119.70-20.31%Positive long termI researched this over the weekend, and like it very much. A pubs group that owns most of its own freeholds. Debt is long term & at fixed interest rates (through Swaps). Good operating margins, and is expanding. Franchise model is far better than tenanted model in my view. Great divi yield of 4.7%. What's not to like? PER of 11.4. Too cheap in my view.
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22 Aug 2014SkyepharmaLON:SKP470.3258.00444.0072.09%I liked the results yesterday - fwd estimates for earnings make it reasonably priced (PER c.14) and delivering good growth.Not a sector I understand, but seems to be a decent GARP share.
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19 Feb 2015BooHooLON:BOO2,502.625.00218.00772.00%HighSecond tranche - I believe this share is now good value considering the growth in UK and internationally. Very good operating profit margin (better than Asos!) and pr warn in Jan 2015 was I believe due to unrealistically high forecasts from IPO, rather than anything being inherently wrong with teh business.
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Value/GARP
Bargepole