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The "Stop the Farm" campaign rallies local communities to oppose the construction of new chicken and pig farms, citing the detrimental effects on nearby residents. It lobbies the government to pass some laws that would restrict the building of new farms, most notably the social planning law.

I first estimate the impact of protesting against building of new farms for the year 2021. That is the year Bartosz Zając (the main person working on this program) provided data for. He claimed that it's a typical year, that impact in recent years (2023 and 2024) might be a bit higher, and it might continue to be higher because they might be trying to build bigger farms. On the other hand, we have to account to some years like 2020 (covid) and 2022 (invasion to Ukraine) that were atypical and when the impact was lower because fewer new farms were planned. I think that these two factors roughly cancel each other out and in the end, we can use the year 2021 to see what cost-effectiveness we should expect going forward.

I then estimate the expected impact of the social planning law, and estimate combined cost-effectiveness.
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Estimate for 2021
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Broilers in farms blocked in 202120.9M
Estimate by Anima International. I haven't reviewed this estimate.
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Years of impact in farms blocked 1.0I guess there’s a 45% chance that blocking a farm delays production by just one month, as the market might adjust quickly to meet demand elsewhere. I guess there’s a 50% chance of a one-year delay. And I guess there’s a 5% chance that stopping a farm leads to 10 fewer years of chicken farming—on the assumption that, in some cases, limiting supply can reduce long-term demand rather than simply shifting production. This averages out to a one-year delay, though this estimate is highly uncertain.
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Broilers in farms delayed in 202167.5M
Estimate by Anima International. I haven't reviewed this estimate.
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Impacted farm delays production for this many years on average0.6The delay for a particular farm is longer, maybe two years. But there is also the possibility that a different farm will be built (perhaps in another country) to fill the demand.
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Broilers spared from life per year in expectation62.2M
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DCDE per broiler3.6
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DCDEs in 2021223.1M
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Social planning law
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Probability of passing per year, by 20275%
Bartosz said that he thinks there's a 15% of it passing by 2027
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Law passing would prevent farms built for this many broilers in total546M
Estimated in the table below, loosely based on Bartosz's intuitions.
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Years of impact in farms blocked0.5Pawel thinks that this should be short because producers will adjust to the law (more than they currently do to the protests) and switch to other countries
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Broilers spared from life per year of work, in expectation13.6M
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DCDEs per year from the possibility of passing the law48.9M
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Year after passing the lawBroilers that would be slaughtered in new farms built without the social planning lawPercentage of additional broilers in new farms prevented with the lawBroilers in farms prevented
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1100M85%85.0M
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2100M72%72.3M
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3100M61%61.4M
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4100M52%52.2M
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5100M44%44.4M
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690M40%35.9M
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781M36%29.1M
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873M32%23.6M
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966M29%19.1M
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1059M26%15.5M
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1153M25%13.2M
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1248M24%11.3M
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1343M22%9.7M
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1439M21%8.3M
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1535M20%7.1M
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1635M19%6.7M
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1735M18%6.4M
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1835M17%6.1M
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1935M17%5.8M
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2035M16%5.5M
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2135M15%5.2M
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2235M14%4.9M
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2335M13%4.7M
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2435M13%4.5M
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2535M12%4.2M
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2635M12%4.0M
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Total545.9M
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The tabke above is based on Bartosz's intuitions. He expects the industry to eventually find ways around the law.
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Combined results
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Expected number of animals spared from life in farms per year of work75.8M
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Total impact per year, DCDE, for years 2025-2027260.8M
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Percentage of impact that comes from the possibility of the social planning law19%
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Average program expenses (2021-2024), PLN (overheads internalised)580K
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DCDE per PLN450
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FTEs in 2021, including overheads2.5One person is working on it and another person is managing it. I was told that the manager takes up about half of her time for this, which might have already been an overestimate. I add another FTE to account for overheads. Not that this figure is only used to estimate impact per FTE. The results presented in the EA forum article use average program expenses above.
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DCDE per FTE104.3M
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Animals helped per PLN131
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