Market evaluation worksheet

	A	B	C	D	F
1	Test	Explanation	Fermi Estimation	Key	Instructions
2	Plausible	Number of businesses who have the problem	100,000,000	Power-of-ten only 1k, 10k, 100k, 1M, 10M, 100M, 1B	Copy this sheet to your Google Drive to edit. Then update the dropdowns on the left with your best estimates for your market.
3	Self-aware	Willing to solve the problem	0.1	0.01: Few agree or care 0.1 : Thought-leaders care and evangelize 0.5 : It’s an industry standard-practice 1.0 : Almost impossible to find someone who doesn’t care	This formula was developed by Jason Cohen. He goes into a ton of detail about how to validate markets and the meaning behind the formula in this post: https://longform.asmartbear.com/problem/
4	Lucrative	Annual allocated budget	$100	Power-of-ten only, of net-revenue $1, $10, $100, $1k, $10k, $100k, $1M	For some additional thoughts on market size that build on these ideas check out my article here: https://www.andrewaskins.com/bootstrapped-market-size/
5	Liquid	Frequency of purchase decision	0.01	0.01: Every few years 0.1 : An annual decision 1.0 : Always in the market, easy to switch
6	Eager (identity)	Attitude towards your company	0.5	0 : They cannot buy from you 0.1 : Structural challenges 0.5 : Indifferent; no red flags 1.0 : Mission-level emotional desire to select you
7	Eager (comparative)	Competitive differentiation	0.5	0.1 : No material differentiation 0.5 : Some features are so good, some people will buy just for that 1.0 : One-of-a-kind solution that has no viable alternative
8	Enduring	Will they still be here a year from now?	1	0.01: One-off purchase without loyalty 0.1 : One-off purchase, but happy customers will buy again and tell their friends 0.5 : Recurring-revenue from a recurring-problem 1.0 : Strong lock-in from fiat, integrations, or being the system-of-record for a business-critical system
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11		Total	2,500,000
12		Score	4	Good market for a scale-up
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