INET model applied To XLM
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Cryptoasset valuation
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AssetXLMsite:
https://www.stellar.org
whitepaper:
https://www.stellar.org/papers/stellar-consensus-protocol.pdf
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Model
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Year201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032
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Market
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TAM596244715493858591103030912363711483645178037419584122056332210774121340872147425215413621575022159188
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Adoption Curve0.07%0.17%0.41%0.95%2.05%3.89%6.11%7.95%9.05%9.59%9.83%9.93%9.97%9.99%10.00%
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Transaction Value that Stellar is Processing [millions USD]4141213350297762538757729108763155627186122202176209789213250214804215502215818
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Available coins
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Circulating XLM [millions]520335255353079536095414554687552345578656344569075747758051586325921859810
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Economy
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Network Monetary Base Necessary [millions USD]29.6020039286.67839409250.1737629698.27097591813.3877584123.501697768.75744611116.2492113294.4510514441.1430314984.9473515232.1390115343.1196715392.9964515415.56397
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Utility Price per XLM [USD]$0.001$0.002$0.005$0.013$0.033$0.075$0.141$0.199$0.236$0.254$0.261$0.262$0.262$0.260$0.258
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Discountd Value of Future Prices
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Discounted Value per XLM [USD]$0.001$0.001$0.003$0.006$0.012$0.020$0.029$0.032$0.029$0.024$0.019$0.015$0.011$0.009$0.007
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Inputs
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Market Data: Mobile Payment Technologies Market
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TAM 2017 [Millions USD]496870
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CAGR20%
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Last Year to use CAGR2024
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Adoption Curve
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Base Year2018
bearish scenario
modest scenario
bullish scenario
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Maket Saturation [%]10%1%10%20%
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Start of Fast Growth [hits 10%]2021202120212021
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Take Over Time [to capture 90%]5755
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Network Fundamentals
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Start Currency Supply [millions]104066
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Start Currency Circulating [millions]18760
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Start Currency Helds by Foundation [millions]85305
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Inflation Schedule [%]1%
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HODL Percentage [%]50%*
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Velocity14*
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Investor Value
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Investor discount rate [%]30%*
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* Blue values are my highly subjective assumptions
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