Vital Strategies BOTEC (public)

	A	B	C	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X
1				Aggregate	Vietnam	Nigeria	Mexico	Philippines	Thailand	Ethiopia	South Africa	United Republic of Tanzania	Myanmar	Uganda	Kenya	Cambodia	Kazakhstan	Belarus	Cameroon	Colombia	Ghana	Burundi	Serbia
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3			Probability of working in country (best guess based on conversations with Vital Strategies)		40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	10%	10%	10%	10%
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5	Costs
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7			Cost of 3-year campaign in U.S. dollars	15,000,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000	3,750,000
8			Multiplier for future funding	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.7
9			Cost of 5-year campaign in U.S. dollars	25,000,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000	6,250,000
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11	Baseline disease burden
12			Annual deaths from alcohol (per IHME)	120,684	52,984	45,888	49,889	39,802	39,223	19,602	27,060	19,290	20,452	15,356	15,862	9,655	9,586	9,807	8,420	7,563	10,154	5,400	5,066
13			Subjective adjustment to IHME alcohol death estimates		0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
14			Adjustment for growth in alcohol consumption		1.6	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.4	1.8	1.4	1.2	1.5	1.1	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.0	1.2	1.1
15			Adjustment to remove estimate of unrecorded consumption		0.7	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.0	0.8	1.0	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.7	0.9
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17			Annual deaths from alcohol affected by policy	91,481	47,219	42,313	38,017	35,099	34,494	21,113	20,735	21,275	18,565	15,412	10,017	7,815	6,472	6,750	6,078	5,859	5,436	3,989	3,660
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19	Effectiveness
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21		Tax increase of 10%
22			Reduction in annual alcohol deaths (%)		2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
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24			Number of years brought forward	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
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26			Increase in probability (in percentage points) of intervention being implemented in 5 years given AHPDI involvement		35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%
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28			Expected lives saved from this intervention	8,165	4,214	3,776	3,393	3,133	3,079	1,884	1,851	1,899	1,657	1,375	894	698	578	602	543	523	485	356	327
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30		Reducing days or hours of sale
31			Reduction in annual alcohol deaths from reducing days or hours of sale (%)		0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
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33			Number of years brought forward		10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
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35			Increase in probability (in percentage points) of intervention being implemented in 5 years given AHPDI involvement		45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%
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37			Expected lives saved from this intervention	2,342	1209	1083	973	899	883	541	531	545	475	395	256	200	166	173	156	150	139	102	94
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39		Drunk-driving countermeasures
40			Reduction in annual alcohol deaths from drunk-driving countermeasures (%)		0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
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42			Number of years brought forward		10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
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44			Increase in probability (in percentage points) of intervention being implemented in 5 years given AHPDI involvement		45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%
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46			Expected lives saved from this intervention	461	238	213	192	177	174	106	105	107	94	78	50	39	33	34	31	30	27	20	18
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48		Advertising
49			Reduction in annual alcohol deaths (%)		0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
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51			Number of years brought forward		10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
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53			Increase in probability (in percentage points) of intervention being implemented in 5 years given AHPDI involvement		45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%
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55			Expected lives saved from this intervention	1,205	622	557	501	462	454	278	273	280	244	203	132	103	85	89	80	77	72	53	48
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57		Summary
58			Expected reduction in alcohol deaths per year	1217.3	628.3	563.0	505.9	467.0	459.0	280.9	275.9	283.1	247.0	205.1	133.3	104.0	86.1	89.8	80.9	78.0	72.3	53.1	48.7
59			Expected reduction in alcohol deaths (%)		1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%
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61	Cost-effectiveness
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63		Effectiveness
64			Total lives saved	13,922	6,283	5,630	5,059	4,670	4,590	2,809	2,759	2,831	2,470	2,051	1,333	1,040	861	898	809	780	723	531	487
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66			Cost per life saved	1796	995	1110	1236	1338	1362	2225	2265	2208	2530	3048	4689	6010	7258	6958	7727	8017	8641	11775	12834
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68			Value of preventing one death from alcohol	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57
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70			Total units of value	793,547	358,131	320,924	288,338	266,212	261,624	160,135	157,268	161,360	140,804	116,890	75,977	59,276	49,086	51,198	46,102	44,435	41,229	30,256	27,758
71			Units of value generated per dollar spent	0.03	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
72			GiveDirectly (Units of value generated per dollar spent)	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034	0.0034
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74			Multiples of cash	9	17	15	14	13	12	8	7	8	7	6	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
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76			Inclusion / exclusion	32%
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78			Multiples of cash (after inclusion / exclusion)	12	22	20	18	17	16	10	10	10	9	7	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2
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