GiveWell, VAS supplementary analysis (2024) (public)

	A	B	C	D
1	Comparing VAS mortality reduction to other interventions
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3		VAS	Bednets	Azithromycin
4	Inputs
5	All-cause intent-to-treat mortality reduction	24%	17%	14%
6	Estimated population coverage	87%	70%	90%
7	Mortality reduction per treated	28%	24%	16%
8	Approx. control group mortality rate (per 1,000 child years)	25.49	37.8	15.9
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10	Scenario 1: VAS has mortality effects in kids w/o VAD
11	VAD rate in trials	59%
12	Mortality effect above VAD threshold is X% of effect below threshold	33%	*Key parameter. A guess.
13	Estimated VAS mortality effect size per treated, among population with vitamin A deficiency	38%
14	Estimated VAS mortality effect size per treated, among population without vitamin A deficiency	13%
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16	Scenario 2: VAS has no mortality effects in kids w/o VAD
17	Mortality effect above VAD threshold is X% of effect below threshold	0%
18	Estimated VAS mortality effect size per treated, among population with vitamin A deficiency	47%
19	Estimated VAS mortality effect size per treated, among population without vitamin A deficiency	0%
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21	Comparison with seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) (no direct all-cause mortality effect)
22	Percent of deaths from malaria in under-5 children, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2005	0.15
23	Reduction in clinical malaria among children targeted	0.75
24	Internal validity adjustment — SMC	95%
25	External validity adjustment — SMC	100%
26	Estimated coverage in trials considered in GiveWell's meta-analysis	90%
27	Expected reduction in malaria cases among children treated	79%
28	Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence	100%
29	Indirect deaths averted per malaria death averted	0.5
30	Proportion of annual direct malaria mortality occurring in high-transmission season	70%
31	Total estimated ACM effect (during the SMC season)	17.9%
32	Total estimated ACM effect (annualized)	12.5%
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