SpaceX - Valuation (Regal Capital).xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
1	SpaceX Valuation Assumptions
2		2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E	2031E	2032E	2033E	2034E	2035E
3	Starlink Drivers
4	Subscribers (Millions)	4.0	5.5	7.5	10.0	13.0	16.5	20.5	25.0	30.0	35.5	41.5
5	Consumer %	90%	89%	88%	87%	86%	85%	84%	83%	82%	81%	80%
6	Enterprise %	10%	11%	12%	13%	14%	15%	16%	17%	18%	19%	20%
7	Consumer ARPU ($/month)	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110	$110
8	Enterprise ARPU ($/month)	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500	$500
9	Hardware Rev per Sub ($)	$300	$250	$200	$150	$100	$100	$100	$100	$100	$100	$100
10	Service Margin %	70%	72%	74%	76%	78%	80%	80%	80%	80%	80%	80%
11	Hardware Margin %	-20%	-10%	0%	5%	10%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%
12
13	Space Division Drivers
14	Falcon 9 Launches	120	130	140	150	160	170	180	190	200	210	220
15	Falcon Heavy Launches	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
16	Starship Launches	5	15	30	50	80	120	160	200	250	300	350
17	Price per F9 ($M)	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67	$67
18	Price per FH ($M)	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150	$150
19	Price per Starship ($M)	$100	$80	$60	$40	$30	$25	$20	$15	$10	$10	$10
20	Launch Margin %	30%	32%	34%	36%	38%	40%	42%	44%	46%	48%	50%
21
22	AI Division Drivers
23	Enterprise Customers	100	200	500	1000	2000	4000	8000	12000	16000	20000	25000
24	ARPC ($k)	100	105	110	115	120	125	130	135	140	145	150
25	AI Margin %	40%	45%	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%	80%	80%
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27	Financial Drivers
28	CapEx (% of Revenue)	25%	22%	20%	18%	16%	14%	12%	10%	10%	10%	10%
29	Working Capital (% of Rev)	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
30	SG&A (% of Revenue)	15%	14%	13%	12%	11%	10%	9%	8%	8%	8%	8%
31	Headcount (Thousands)	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
32	Average Salary ($k)	$150	$155	$160	$165	$170	$175	$180	$185	$190	$195	$200
33	Tax Rate %	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%
34	WACC %	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%
35	Terminal Growth Rate %	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
36	Debt ($M)	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528	$12,528
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