[published] Good Food Institute (GFI) CEA, 2022-09-14

	A	B	C	D	E
1	Notes: Evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the Good Food Institute (GFI) by comparing differences in emissions under two scenarios of varying levels of alternative protein (AP) research and development (R&D). We used Vivid Economics' modeling of AP R&D under high- and low-innovation scenarios to guide our thinking. We assumed that GFI increases the likelihood of a high-innovation scenario occurring. Because Vivid Economics' low-innovation scenario assumed a case where R&D would only be driven by market forces, we adjusted its projections of livestock production downward because APs already receive public funding and our best guess is that this will continue to be true. We also adjusted livestock production under its high-innovation scenario upward because it is our impression that Vivid Economics' estimates for cultivated meat production may be too optimistic. We have also developed a Guesstimate version of this CEA, which allowed us to assign ranges of values and probability distributions for each input. Last updated 2024-10-18.
2		Parameter			Notes

3	Cost
4	GFI's budget, 2016-2022	$101,130,900			Calculation
5	Effectiveness	Best guess	Worst case	Best case
6	# of years before the high-innovation scenario is roughly similar to BAU in the absence of GFI	15	5	20	Guess
7	The difference in livestock production between adjusted high- and adjusted low-innovation scenarios over years of interest (million tons per year)	430	50	710	Calculation
8	Conversion factor between emissions and livestock production (tCO2e per million metric ton)	14,015,573	14,015,573	14,015,573	Calculation
9	Difference in tCO2e between adjusted high- and low-innovation scenarios(tCO2e)	6,032,035,675	701,473,860	9,952,686,737	Calculation
10	Change in probability of moving from low- to high-innovation scenario due to directly supporting AP R&D and expanding the talent pool	13%	5%	20%
11	Percent impact that GFI has on supporting R&D and expanding the talent pool	3%	1%	5%	Guess
12	Change in probability of moving from low- to high-innovation scenario due to securing public funding for AP R&D	13%	5%	20%	Guess
13	Percent impact that GFI has on securing public funding for AP R&D	1.5%	0.5%	3%	Guess
14	Change in probability of moving to the high-innovation scenario due to GFI	0.56%	0.08%	1.50%	Calculation
15	Effectiveness adjustment for marginal donation going to international efforts instead of US-based R&D	1	1	1	Guess
16	Expected value of GFI (tCO2e removed/avoided due to intervention)	33,930,201	526,105	149,290,301	Calculation
17	Cost-effectiveness
18	$ per tCO2e	$2.98	$192.23	$0.68	Calculation
19	Tradewater $ per tCO2e	$17
20	...is x times as CE as Tradewater	6	0	25	Calculation
21	Top recommendation benchmark $ per tCO2e	$1
22	...is x times as CE as top recommendation benchmark	0.3	0.0	1.5	Calculation
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