[published] Good Food Institute (GFI) CEA, 2022-09-14

Notes: Evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the Good Food Institute (GFI) by comparing differences in emissions under two scenarios of varying levels of alternative protein (AP) research and development (R&D). We used Vivid Economics' modeling of AP R&D under high- and low-innovation scenarios to guide our thinking. We assumed that GFI increases the likelihood of a high-innovation scenario occurring. Because Vivid Economics' low-innovation scenario assumed a case where R&D would only be driven by market forces, we adjusted its projections of livestock production downward because APs already receive public funding and our best guess is that this will continue to be true. We also adjusted livestock production under its high-innovation scenario upward because it is our impression that Vivid Economics' estimates for cultivated meat production may be too optimistic. We have also developed a Guesstimate version of this CEA, which allowed us to assign ranges of values and probability distributions for each input.

Last updated 2024-10-18.

Because Vivid Economics' low-innovation scenario assumed a case where R&D would only be driven by market forces, we adjusted its projections of livestock production downward because APs already receive public funding and our best guess is that this will continue to be true. We also adjusted livestock production under its high-innovation scenario upward because it is our impression that Vivid Economics' estimates for cultivated meat production may be too optimistic.

Source:

https://www.climateworks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GINAs-Protein-Diversity.pdf

"Low-innovation scenario represents market-driven progress in the absence of public sector support"

https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/forecasts-estimate-limited-cultured-meat-production-through-2050

"Despite some variation, the majority of probabilities were for low production volumes. The aggregated probabilities from our panel include a 54% probability that less than 100,000 metric tons of cultured meat (where >51% of the “meat” is produced directly from animal cells) will be produced and sold at any price in a 12-month period before the end of 2051."