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http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/
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2014 Florida Governor True Vote Model
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Prologue:
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In 2010, Sink (D) lost the recorded vote to Scott by 62,000 votes ( 48.4 - 49.6% )
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Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 340,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy)
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There were 3,150 respondents. The margin of error was 2.3%. Sink had a 99% win probability.
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2014 Base Case Scenario:
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Sink had 52.2% of the 2-party vote, matching the unadjusted exit poll.
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93% turnout of living 2010 voters
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Crist had 90% of returning Sink voters
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Christ had 7%% of returning Scott voters
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Crist had 54% of New Voters
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Base Case Result
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Crist had 52.0% and won by approximately 220,000 votes
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Check the sensitivity analysis to view Crist's total vote shares for a range of scenarios.
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Registration: 500,000 more Dems than Repubs
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TotalDemRepOther
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11,931,5334,628,1784,172,2323,131,123
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38.79%34.97%26.24%
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