2019 Novel Corona Virus Toy Model
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SUMMARY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL ASSUMPTIONS AND REGIONSARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Toy-Model with Time Dependent RCONTACTINTROHOW-TO
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Based on under-reporting assumptions and inputs:
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1. In all, we can expect between 639K and 789K deaths, and 55741K to 68838K infections
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2. It seems the official numbers start from around day 8 to 12 of the outbreak.
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3. The latest official data from Outside China seems to come from day 59 to 73 of the outbreak, with peak infection on day ~66 and peak death on day ~88
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INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS (Click 'File' --> 'Make a Copy', to play with the inputs)
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! PUT DATA IN BLUE CELLS !Input
Units / Measure
Calculated Value
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INPUTS CONTROLLING POPULATION SIZE AND HOSPITAL BEDS
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FIND YOUR COUNTRY OR CHOSE WWPopulationBeds/1000 ppl
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Europe747,503,0516.20Total Infected
% of population
Total Required Medical Attention
% of populationTotal Dead% of population
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Immuned/shielded (see below)7,475,031Susceptible (S)740,028,020Peak day62,289,6398.417%Peak day6,229,0300.842%Peak day714,0600.096%
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Hospital capacity to help critical cases (% of total beds)0.70%Critical care beds:32,442Day: 66 | 2321469Day: 77 | 232147Day: 88 | 23215
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Median age (take into consideration for complication and death rate)43.10World lowest: 15.3. World highest: 52.4. WW Median: 30.1Healthcare results (based on region and available critical-care beds)Compare to other outbreaks in history
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INPUTS CONTROLLING EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ASPECTSHospital Beds and Deaths due to lack of medical attention*Compare % of WW1918 Spanish flu2009 Swine Flu2003 SARS2019 SARS-CoV-2
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Infected at T0 (# of patient zeros - I0)7Start model from7Maximum capacityDemand at peakOccupancy at peakDeaths due to lack of medical care~Total infected27.77778%10.34559%0.00013%0.81573%
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Basic Reproductive Number (R0) - Each person infects R people at T02.6R0 =2.632,442232,147715.6%91,086~Total Dead4.16667%0.00533%0.00001%0.00935%
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Infection velocity (days it take to infect R people)7Days:7~CFR15.00000%0.05153%10.99501%1.14635%
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Days from T0 till breakout dies out (without imposed quarantine)365R burnout coefficient0.0027397
*Numbers refer only to demand due to outbreak
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Days from T0 till quarantine measures are put in place (0=no quarantine)40Days:40
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Days till full quarantine effect is reached35Days:35TEST THE MODEL VS REPORTS*
🠋 Checkbox will calculate reported numbers as a given fraction of reality (may be due to testing backlog, unknowns, and... lies)
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Randomize TD-R [Effective R] (0-No, 1-CRAZY, Very low = force recalculate)0.000001Range0.0000018251(dropdown) Test model vs numbers fromOutside ChinaAssume under reportingDay # from start of reports70
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Mean incubation period (from infection till symptoms)5Days:5ReportedReported cumulativeValue to find in modelVariableReached in model on dayValue found in modelClosenessOfficial data seems to come from day
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% of population that are naturally immune or somehow shielded1.00%Safe from infection7,475,031Cumulative confirmed Infected775,2082%38,760,400Infected on day6938,309,4851.18%66
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% of infected with noticeable symptoms (will report to GP\hospital)50.00%% of infected:50.00%Symptomatic % of total infected10%7,752,080Symptomatic on day627,161,3098.25%
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% of showing symptoms who require medical assistance20.00%% of infected:10.000%Require hospital % of total infected80%969,010Require hospital on day66954,1451.56%Average accuracy
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Mean days from incubation end to requiring medical INTERVENTION5Days:10Cumulative recovered101,82820%509,140Recovered on day63448,41213.54%10.51%
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% of hospitalized who are critical (won't survive without hospital)20.00%% of infected:2.000%Cumulative dead38,79880%48,497Died on day6940,46519.85%
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% of critical who won't survive even with hospital50.00%% of infected:1.000%First day confirmed7100%7Infected on day21030.00%First effective outbreak day is
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Mean days from requiring medical assistance to DEATH11Days:217100%7Symptomatic on day91136.36%10
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Mean days from requiring medical assistance to RECOVERY12Days:227100%7Require hospital on day18812.50%
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Recovery rate (given adequate medical care and mild cases)99.00%% of infected:99.00%First day recovered0100%0Recovered on dayN/A3N/AAverage accuracy
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FIND OFFICIAL NUMBERS HEREhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/First day dead0100%0Died on dayN/A1N/A24.43%
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Latest data found for Outside ChinaConfirmedRecoveredDeathsdays since first infection (closest match)66Latest data is from31/03/2020So T0 seems to be between12/01/2020and25/01/2020
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775,208101,82838,798
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Based on days to die/recover assumptions above (B29,B30) and official data:TEST THE MODEL VS REPORT EVOLUTIONABOUT THIS SECTION
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The average Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for Outside China (G21) 11 days after confirmation, is:16.33%MODEL GRAPH VS REPORTS GRAPH
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The average recovery ratio 12 days after confirmation, is:72.29%Starts day of Model Graph (max = match days to report days)maxDefault: Effective start day comparison (closest match)2-3
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The median doubling time (in days) is:3.8
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If the 'velocity' (B17) is 7 days to infect R people, the median effective reproductive nunmber is:2.6End day of Model Graph (max = day of last activity)70Default: Days since first infection closest match71
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↑ ABOUT THE NUMBERS ABOVEMin/Max days since infection to test5973
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Based on official reports, Fitality and Recovery Ratios for Outside China are:Cap Model Graph at ("max" = highest in model range)Default: Maximum value in official reports47,420
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The naive CFR (total deaths/total cases) for Outside China is:5.00%
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The semi-naive CFR (total dead/total dead+recovered) for Outside China is:27.59%Show/HideOn/OffMAXMIN
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The naive recovery ratio for Outside China is:13.14%Infected42,585,45210
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The semi-naive recovery ratio for Outside China is:72.41%Symptomatic16,889,7740
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Require Hospital1,812,9630
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Calculate "real" number of infected based on CFR, days to die, and Doubling TimeAverage (Sy,re)9,351,3690
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Case Fatality Ratio (default D28)1.00%Recovered2,820,3720
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Doubling Time in days (default C36)3.80Body count58,1930
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Days to die from case report (default B29)11.00SEE ZOOM CHART FOR THESE DAYS AND NUMBERS
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Assuming that number of deaths is % of the real number of deaths (default H27)80.00%
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RESULTS:days to die/doubling2.89
TEST THE MODEL VS REPORTS - AVERAGE R^2 ACROSS TIME
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If 80% of deaths are reported and the CFR is 1%, the number of infected people in Outside China 11 days ago was4,849,750R^2 InfectedR^2 Symptomatic R^2 RequireR^2 Recovered R^2 Dead
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With a doubling time of 3.8 days, the number of infected people today in Outside China is:35,949,76494.27%91.60%89.14%84.16%89.97%
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SOME MORE LINKS:
TEST THE MODEL ON SPECIFIC DAY VS REPORTS
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Click here for an explanation about the difference between Effective Reproductive Number and Basic Reproductive NumberCompare to model on dayDefault: Avg. days since first infection67
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Click here for information about the Logistics Equation (which i used for this model)Infected (cumulative)Dead (cumulative)Recovered (cumulative)
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Click here to read more about the SIR Model I used to augment the Logistics Equation with.If all infected are testedIf all symptomatic are testedIf only hospital required are testedTotalFrom SymptomaticFrom hospitalized
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38,760,4007,752,080969,01048,497509,140509,140509,140
<-- Reported (+adjustments if enabled)
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33,779,52612,280,7611,100,38026,9991,193,736596,868119,374<-- Predicted
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4,980,874-4,528,681-131,37021,498-684,596-87,728389,766<-- Difference
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-14.75%36.88%11.94%57.35%14.70%-326.51%
<-- 1- Reported(+adjustment)/Predicted
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Match*:11.36%-79.63%-84.82%
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*NOTE: The closer the % is to 0 - the better the match.
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Data for use comparison tableInfectedDeadPopulationNums for test model table
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1918 Spanish flu500000000750000001800000000122807611100380269991193736
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2009 H1N1 Flu7035000003625006800000000Symptomatic Sum for selected dayRequire Hospital Sum for selected dayBody count for selected dayRecovered sum for selected day
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2003 SARS84229266360000000
Numbers for compare to other pandemics
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Coronavirus62,289,639714,0607636014880~Infected0.27777777780.10345588240.00000132420.0081573491
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~dead0.04166666670.00005330880.00000014560.0000935121
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