ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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META DCF
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TickerMETA
Current Share Price
179.51
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Date11/11/2022
Implied Share Price
 98.21
Implied upside (downside)
-45%
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Assumptions
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Switches
Conservative
Street/Base
Optimistic
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Revenue1
Revenue 2023
80%
Revenue 2027
8%
Revenue 2023
110%
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EBIT1
Revenue 2024
60%
Revenue 2024
110%
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D&A1
Revenue 2027
3%
Revenue 2027
10%
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CapEx1EBIT 202390%EBIT 202728%EBIT 2023115%
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WACC1EBIT 202726%EBIT 202732%
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TGR1
D&A Trend
95%D&A Trend110%
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Capex Trend
105%Capex Trend85%
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WACC10.21%WACC10.21%WACC10.71%WACC11.21%
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TGR (terminal Growth rate)
2.0%TGR2.0%TGR2.50%StandardTGR3.0%
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Income Statement201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027
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Revenue 7,872 12,466 17,928 27,638 40,653 55,838 70,697 85,965 117,929 116,609 122,152 136,679 152,057 164,598 180,135
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% growth58%44%54%47%37%27%22%37%-1%5%12%11%8%9%
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EBIT 3,803 4,994 6,225 12,427 20,203 24,913 28,986 32,671 46,753 33,555 27,352 33,419 40,055 43,068 49,918
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% of sales48%40%35%45%50%45%41%38%40%29%22%24%26%26%28%
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Taxes 1,254 1,970 2,506 2,301 4,660 3,249 6,327 4,034 7,914 5,619 5,431 6,359 7,848 9,016 10,488
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% of EBIT33%39%40%19%23%13%22%12%17%17%20%19%20%21%21%
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Cash Flow Items201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027
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D&A 1,011 1,243 1,945 2,342 3,025 4,315 5,741 6,862 7,967 8,686 11,305 13,917 15,813 20,616 23,067
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% of Sales13%10%11%8%7%8%8%8%7%7%9%10%10%13%13%
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% of Capex74%68%77%52%45%31%38%45%43%28%32%41%46%65%73%
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Capital Expenditures 1,362 1,831 2,523 4,491 6,733 13,915 15,102 15,163 18,690 31,431 34,910 33,931 34,332 31,722 31,706
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% of Sales17%15%14%16%17%25%21%18%16%27%29%25%23%19%18%
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Change in Net working Capital
 676 (262) 784 758 1,887 (1,527) 7,250 (2,723) 700 5,683
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% of Sales9%-2%4%3%5%-3%10%-3%1%5%
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% of change in Sales-6%14%8%14%-10%49%-18%2%-431%
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DCF201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027
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Revenue 7,872 12,466 17,928 27,638 40,653 55,838 70,697 85,965 117,929 116,609 118,941 124,595 139,413 155,098 167,890
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% growth58%44%54%47%37%27%22%37%2%5%12%11%8%8%
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Conservative Case2%4%7%6%4%3%
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Base Case (Street)2%5%12%11%8%8%
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Optimistic Case2%5%13%12%11%10%
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EBIT 3,803 4,994 6,225 12,427 20,203 24,913 28,986 32,671 46,753 30,200 23,970 27,418 32,535 38,260 43,651
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% of sales48%40%35%45%50%45%41%38%40%26%20%22%23%25%26%
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Conservative Case26%20%22%23%25%26%
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Base Case (Street)29%22%24%26%27%28%
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Optimistic Case33%26%28%29%31%32%
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Taxes 1,254 1,970 2,506 2,301 4,660 3,249 6,327 4,034 7,914 5,144 4,083 4,670 5,542 6,517 7,436
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% of EBIT33%39%40%19%23%13%22%12%17%17%17%17%17%17%17%
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EBIAT 25,055 19,887 22,748 26,993 31,743 36,216
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D&A 1,011 1,243 1,945 2,342 3,025 4,315 5,741 6,862 7,967 8,252 10,740 13,221 15,022 19,585 21,914
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% of Capex74%68%77%52%45%31%38%45%43%26%31%39%44%62%69%
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Conservative Case26%31%39%44%62%69%
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Base Case (Street)28%32%41%46%65%73%
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Optimistic Case30%36%45%51%71%80%
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CapEx 1,362 1,831 2,523 4,491 6,733 13,915 15,102 15,163 18,690 31,431 33,992 30,931 31,477 29,891 29,551
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% of Sales17%15%14%16%17%25%21%18%16%28%30%26%24%20%18%
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Conservative Case28%30%26%24%20%18%
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Base Case (Street)27%29%25%23%19%18%
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Optimistic Case23%24%21%19%16%15%
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Change in NWC 676 (262) 784 758 1,887 (1,527) 7,250 (2,723) 700 (99) 175 425 1,114 1,179 962
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% of Change in Sales-6%14%8%14%-10%49%-18%2%8%8%8%8%8%8%
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Unlevered FCF 1,975 (3,541) 4,613 9,424 20,258 27,617
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Present Value of UFCF 257 (2,256) 1,795 2,640 4,433 4,959
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Years left in 2022
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12/31/2022Initial Discount Year 0.14
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Discount PeriodMid year convention 0.07 0.57 1.57 2.57 3.57 4.57
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Terminal Value 344,826
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Present value of Terminal Value
 216,623
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Enterprise Value 228,450
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(+) Cash & Cash Eq 47,998
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(-) Debt -
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Equity Value 276,448
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Shares Outstanding2815
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Implied Share Price 98.21
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