UK gas demand in CCC forecast
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
$
%
123
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST
1
All units in TwhDomesticIndustry (inc refinaries)Power (lowest gas scenario - CCC)Total% reductionReasonable range (taking into account power sector and industrial variability) Assumed level of gas demand compared to 2011National grid projections
2
2011353125307785
3
203025210081.969433.96944.72%35-45%60%60
4
205002081.969101.96976.50%60-76%30%
5
(CCC range 20-96 depending on barriers)(CCC 82 twh for power sector lowest end of range)
6
7
8
Data and assumptions
9
Data in yellow, Source CCC (email) based on http://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/international-aviation-shipping-review/
10
Data in green, Source DUKES (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/65800/DUKES_2013_Chapter_4.pdf) table 4.2
11
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/65818/DUKES_2013_Chapter_5.pdf
12
Data in blue - our calculation
13
Data in Orange UKCS oil and gas projections https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/249323/production_projections.pdf
14
Data in Pink = National grid Biogas report 2009, using EY calculations
15
Data in red = Reuters http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/uk-energy-gas-britain-imports-idUKBRE88I0J620120919
16
Data in dark blue sourced to the National Grid http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/86C815F5-0EAD-46B5-A580-A0A516562B3E/50819/10312_1_NG_Futureenergyscenarios_WEB1.pdf (figure 26)
17
Change in use of gas for power generation 2011-2030Gas power generation% changeAssumed change in gas use (assuming linear relationship)
18
2011139307
19
20303971.94%81.969
20
21
22
Apply reductions to total gas demandGas demandUK gas supplyNet UK importsBiogas potentialNorway estimate
23
2011909401
24
2030545.4197.7347.762-198330
25
2050272.70272.762-198Continued - volume unknown
26
27
Notes:
28
80% emissions reduction for non aviation sectors compared to 2010/11 based on CCC analysis for international aviation and shipping review
29
Linear relationship assumed on the basis of the roll out of new CCGT plant suitable for load balancing and because gas plants do not currently run at optimun efficiency
30
Gas use in industry could be higher with deployment of CCS
31
Calculation in B23 is UK Net gas demand multiplied by National Grid projection reflected in National grid report (figure 26)
32
Calculation in B24 is UK Net gas demand by Greenpeace/CCC projection - number is indicative
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Loading...
Main menu