Netflix Valuation: 2016
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NameDate of valuation
Value per share
Price per share% Under or Over ValueComments
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Aswath DamodaranFebruary 10, 2016$61.44$87.40-29.70%Global streaming company, with shift to original content and slowing growth
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Guillermo Martin Espallargas
September 21, 2016$95.25$94.880.39%As pure streaming company Netflix has built a strong brand as streaming company but several newcomers (Amazon, Hulu, HBO…etc) are also competing by the same piece of the cake. As streaming-only company it's margins look very low (<5%) in an increased competition environment unless we capitalise its investments in content. Netflix’s strategy of shifting towards generating its own content will increase its reinvestments but will make operating margins between 20-25% more credible in the long term (similar to those of Time Warner today).
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Moideen KalladiSeptember 22, 2016$68.32$95.83-28.71%Increased subscription prices are expected to not budge profits much - inelastic demand is always good. This should offset some of the slowdown in growth arising from the shift to original content. Excellent and sticky web product which is part of the vernacular ("Netflix and chill"). I have adjusted the risk-free rate, sales-to-capital ratio and expected growth to reflect my own views.
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Hisham MannaaSeptember 23, 2016$82.95$95.83-13.44%Increased the Sales to Capital Ratio from 1.07 to 1.20 as I believe that their business model has a higher growth effeciency ratio than that of the average orginal content businesses; Netflix has owns its own platform of distribution and it costs them little to extend that level of distribution to new clients add to that the pricing power the company currently has and I believe a 1.20 ratio is still quite conservative. Maintained the Operating profit margins and growth rates.I'll buy this stock anywhere less than 80 dollars.
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Tobias ClassenSept 23, 2016$79.32$95.94-17.32% I updated the financials and adjusted risk-free rate, sales-to-capital ratio and expected growth: Where market size and market share in North America are at a high level, I feel in Europe the market will still increase and Netflix will be able to secure a large amount of that pie since it has the largest offer of american series available in Europe.
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Greg Etling9/25$116.74$95.9421.68%Updated base financials and Rf (left other WACC, lease/R&D, assumptions same [time constraints]) - adjusted growth up to 25% for the next 5 years for international expansion expectations and Operating margin to 30% as international buildout will be as mature as US by then.
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Phongsakdi Tangjaijaroen
Sep 29, 2016$52.86$96.67-45.32%Use trailing 12 months (Actual 1H/2016 financial information) and update the Rf. I also update operating leasing and R&D info. The revenue growth is adjusted by using historical because I have concern about the future growth particulary growth from aboard.
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Dillon Lanius 10/12/2016$57.98$100.70-42.42%Primary drivers here are raised sales to capital ratio higher to reflect content creation increasing sales efficiency but adjusted growth lower after period 3 to reflect poorer performance on international expansion;
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Ashrit Kasshyap1/17/17$54.42$133.40-59.21%I view netflix as a mix of streming and entertainment company. I use a sales to cap ratio of 1.3 and a cagr of 25%, the growth will come under pressure as amazon makes a foray into streaming, also the growth in emerging markets is restricted by services like availability of high speed interent.
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