2016 Election
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2016 Presidential Election: Will voter turnout overwhelm the built-in fraud factor?
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To win by 4 million votes (a 50.5- 47.6% vote share) the GOP candidate
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needs nearly equal turnout of Obama and McCain voters. That is implausible.
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(Obama won the 2012 True Vote by approximately 15 million).
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Effectively this means that the GOP would need to hold returning Obama voter turnout to 77%.
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Since that is extremely unlikely, we can assume another 6% red-shift vote switch to the GOP.
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The Democrat woud win by 4 million votes if he/she gets 90% turnout of Obama voters and there is ZERO fraud.
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The published official National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Election Day Recorded votes
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Note the adjusted National Exit Poll exactly matched Obama's Election Day recorded share in 2008 and 2012
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Was it just a coincidence?
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In 2008, Obama had 52.71% and McCain 45.35% on Election Day.
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The National Exit Poll Gender cross tab matched it exactly: Obama 52.71% and McCain 45.35%.
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Obama had 59.2% of 10.2 million Late Votes recorded after Election Day.
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In 2012 , Obama had 50.34% and Romney 48.07% on Election Day.
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In the adjusted National Exit Poll Gender crosstab, another exact match: Obama led by 50.30-47.76%
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Obama had 60.23% of 11.7 million Late Votes.
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The unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls matched the True Vote Model.
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Obama won the UNADJUSTED 2008 National Exit Poll by 61-37%.
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The TVM exactly matched the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5%.
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In 2012, the National Election Poll decided not to run exit polls in 19 states.
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This article in Exit Poll/probability analysis from Edison research totally avoids election fraud.
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It does not disucss unadjusted exit polls and the fact that they are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
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It is just more misleading pablum from the firm that conducts and manipulates actual, unadjusted exit polls data.
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http://statistical-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Probability-Based-Exit-Poll-Estimation.pdf
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E&usp=sheets_web#gid=14
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