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VALUATION MODEL INTRODUCTION
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PURPOSE & STRUCTURE
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The model is intended to provide a robust, transparent, comprehensive share price modelling tool for Aminex. Including the flexibility for users to adjust key parameters that they may not agree with, or where they may just want to do some sensitivity analysis and to see the impact of changing certain parameters.

This valuation model has been created because there is currently no broker or other ‘official’ share price estimates available for Aminex that address:
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1. Operator Confirmed Schedule - there are no valuations that model a scenario aligned to operator guidance regarding timing that plateau production will be reached (within 5 years of firs gas) or that recognises the proposed 35-year production horizon.
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2. CH-1 Success Case – In Aminex’s RNS (29 Feb 2024) communicating ARA’s interpretation of 3D seismic, Aminex advised that on a success case for the upcoming CH-1 drill, estimated aggregated GIIP for Ntorya may increase from ~3.45 TCF to ~7.95 TCF – an outcome that would literally be a game changer for the company. Yet, there are no available valuations that model this.
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3. High Margin Revenue Streams – there are no available valuations that seem to properly model the expected sales of natural gas to industry (at higher prices than gas for power) or sales of the volumes of condensate that the operator has estimated are present.
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4. Balanced and transparent view - in addition to not modelling for the above scenarios, available broker valuations lack detail necessary to allow investors to properly understand and interrogate the underlying assumptions behind their modelling and resulting share price valuations.
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As such, this model seeks to:
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1. Address the TWO KEY SCENARIOS - the model has a separate tab for each scenario:
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1. Base Case Scenario: Existing high confidence 3.45 TCF for Ntorya. 280mmscf/d
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2. CH-1 Success Case Scenario: 7.95 TCF for Ntorya
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2. Address the following VARIATIONS OF the two main scenarios:
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i. Timeline Scenario 1 - As per Operator Guidance
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ii. Timeline Scenario 2 - Shard Capital plateau ~ 2yrs later than Operator guidance
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iii. Timeline Scenario 3 – Shard Capital scenario where plateau reached ~5yrs later than Operator guidance
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1. Be balanced and transparent regarding modelling assumptions used - By ensuring that all data used to model the share price scenarios is individually broken out, nothing is hidden. The share price estimates are a product of maths and logic – e.g. X amount of production multiplied by Y sales price, factored for percentage ownership, less costs and taxes. Then there is the discounted cashflow calculations. Everything is laid bare and open to interrogation.
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