2016 Presidential Election Model
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO
1
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/10/24/cnn.poll.pdf
2016 ELECTION MODEL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
3
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR858.html
4
2017 Jan 4-8
284425
Rep-Ind-Dem
Party-ID
Vote shares >>>>
9 PollsAdjustPoll ID
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll ID
IBD/Tipp
5
2017 Dec 4-11
254627GallupPctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClinton1PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther2PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherClinton% DemTrump%RepClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% DemTrump%RepTrump%DemClinton% Rep
6
INPUT IN GREY CELLS BELOW
Ind40.0%33.78%44.00%8.89%3.78%0%Ind17%21%33%15%8%23.0%Ind37%30%47%16%3%4.0%88.11%88.22%33.78%44.00%33.78%44.67%88.00%87.33%
7
Party-ID
Gallup9 polls
CurGallup
NEPDem32.0%88.11%7.78%1.33%1.67%0%Dem45%81%10%4%3%2.0%Dem34%87%7%0%3%3.0%Ipsos81%90%21%33%21%29%81%86%10%6%
8
Poll Shares
11234TurnoutRep28.0%5.67%87.78%3.89%0.33%0%Rep32%6%90%2%1%1.0%Rep29%6%85%5%0%4.0%IBD87%85%30%47%30%47%87%88%7%6%
9
Poll ID10Ind40%29.6%45.0%31%100%
PreUVA
95.2%43.29%44.67%5.07%2.14%Calc88.9%41.9%38.9%5.0%3.0%11.1%Calc96.3%42.4%44.4%7.4%2.1%3.7%Rasmussen85%88%30%42%30%52%89%87%12%5%
10
NEP11Dem32%38.7%27.0%36%100%Votes129,63556,12357,9046,5742,771Poll90.0%42.0%39.0%6.0%3.0%10.0%Poll98.0%43.0%45%8.0%2.0%2.0%Quinnipiac90%81%37%42%37%42%90%90%4%4%
11
9 Polls10Rep28%30.2%28.0%33%100%EVote538232306
GallupID
85.9%36.0%36.8%8.7%4.4%14.1%
GallupID
98.0%41.9%45.3%8.5%2.2%2.0%Fox News89%87%39%44%39%44%86%91%7%6%
12
StateWtdUVA100.0%44.42%48.34%5.07%2.14%CNN93%89%43%44%43%44%86%85%6%6%
13
UVA Trump
75%GallupIndDemRepVotes136,21660,51465,8476,9082,9123
Rasmussen
4
Quinnipiac
ABC90%90%40%49%40%49%90%81%7%7%
14
TotalMoE2.5%Nov1-636%31%27%Evote538180358Ind32%30%42%6%4%18.0%Ind26%37%42%8%2%11.0%Gravis92%93%32%43%32%43%93%89%7%5%
15
PollMoE3.0%
Nov9-13
40%30%27%
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%Dem40%85%12%1%1%1.0%Dem40%90%4%3%1%2.0%LA Times86%91%32%52%32%52%92%93%10%6%
16
EDay41%31%28%Votes136,21665,71962,8904,4831,454Rep27%5%88%5%1%1.0%Rep34%4%81%11%1%3.0%88.11%88.22%33.78%44.00%33.78%44.67%88.22%87.78%7.78%5.67%
17
NEP31%36%33%EVote538232306Calc92.6%45.0%42.0%3.7%2.0%7.4%Calc95.3%47.0%40.1%7.0%1.3%4.7%
18
9Polls29.6%38.7%30.2%
(View Pre UVA Sensitivity analysis in cell X45)
Poll94.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%2.0%6.0%Poll95.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%1.0%5.0%
19
Pre-election
Party-ID
Poll
Electoral Vote
75%
Post UVA Reported
Pre UVA
Post UVA
GallupID
93.0%40.6%45.3%4.8%2.3%7.0%
GallupID
94.1%44.7%40.8%7.2%1.4%5.9%
20
PollsIndDemRepClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob
%Ind%Dem%Rep
21
1Ipsos17%45%32%42.0%39.0%29824010.0%44.5%46.5%11.3%76.4%5
Fox News
6CNNJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
22
2IBD37%34%29%43.0%45.0%2023362.0%43.5%46.5%77.1%86.2%Ind25%39%44%11%4%2.0%Ind43%43%44%6%4%3.0%115%8%4%3%1%1%4239
23
3
Rasmussen
32%40%27%45.0%43.0%3132256.0%46.5%47.5%22.9%63.6%Dem43%89%7%2%2%0.0%Dem31%93%6%0%1%0.0%216%3%0%3%5%0%4345
24
4
Quinnipiac
26%40%34%47.0%40.0%3781605.0%48.3%43.8%0.4%5.5%Rep29%6%87%5%1%1.0%Rep26%6%89%2%0%3.0%34%2%1%1%3%0%4543
25
5Fox News25%43%29%48.0%44.0%3172211.0%48.3%44.8%7.8%10.9%Calc96.2%49.8%39.2%5.1%2.2%3.8%Calc97.9%48.9%43.9%3.1%2.0%2.1%48%2%3%1%11%1%4740
26
6CNN43%31%26%49.0%44.0%3621762.0%49.5%45.5%4.0%8.4%Poll99.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%Poll98.0%49.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%511%4%2%2%5%1%4844
27
7ABC29%37%30%47.0%44.0%3172213.0%47.8%46.3%14.1%30.1%
GallupID
98.6%45.8%43.9%6.4%2.5%1.4%
GallupID
98.0%48.6%44.4%3.0%1.9%2.0%66%4%0%1%2%0%4944
28
8Gravis27%40%33%47.0%45.0%2942444.0%48.0%48.0%23.9%50.0%77%4%0%2%2%0%4744
29
9LA Times30%38%32%44.0%47.0%2023360.0%44.0%47.0%85.9%85.9%7ABC8Gravis83%2%0%1%2%0%4745
30
Average29.6%38.7%30.2%45.8%43.4%298.1239.95.4%46.7%46.2%15.3%41.6%Ind29%40%49%7%4%0.0%Ind27%32%43%3%2%20.0%910%5%2%1%4%0%4447
31
ADJUSTED
Indep %-Pre-elec polls
Adj Poll (Gallup)
ElecVote pre UVA
75%
Post UVA Gallup
Pre-UVA
Post UVA
Dem37%90%7%0%2%1.0%Dem40%92%7%0%1%0.0%8.89%3.78%1.33%1.67%3.89%0.33%45.7843.44
32
GALLUPClintonTrumpDiffClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob
Rep30%7%90%2%0%1.0%Rep33%5%93%2%0%0.0%
33
1Ipsos21%33%12%36.0%36.8%23929914.1%39.5%47.4%64.0%99.8%Calc95.3%47.0%43.8%2.6%1.9%4.7%Calc94.6%47.1%45.1%1.5%0.9%5.4%
34
2IBD30%47%17%41.9%45.3%2023362.0%42.4%46.9%89.9%94.7%Poll97.0%47.0%44.0%4.0%2.0%3.0%Poll96%47.0%45.0%3.0%1.0%4.0%
35
3
Rasmussen
30%42%12%40.6%45.3%1673717.0%42.4%50.6%96.2%99.8%
GallupID
99.4%46.8%47.0%3.4%2.2%0.6%
GallupID
92%43.6%45.5%1.8%1.1%8.0%
36
4
Quinnipiac
37%42%5%44.7%40.8%3352035.9%46.2%45.2%6.5%35.8%
37
5Fox News39%44%5%45.8%43.9%2982401.4%46.1%44.9%24.7%33.6%9
LA Times
http://cesrusc.org/election/
10Gallup9 Polls
38
6CNN43%44%1%48.6%44.4%3352032.0%49.2%46.0%7.0%13.7%Ind30%32%52%10%5%1.0%Ind40.0%33.8%44.0%8.9%3.8%9.6%
39
7ABC40%49%9%46.8%47.0%2492890.6%46.9%47.5%53.9%58.0%Dem38%86%10%2%1%1.0%Dem32.0%88.1%7.8%1.3%1.7%1.1%
40
8Gravis32%43%11%43.6%45.5%2163228.0%45.6%51.5%75.0%97.5%Rep30%6%92%2%0%0.0%Rep28.0%5.7%87.8%3.9%0.3%2.3%
41
9LA Times32%52%20%41.7%48.2%854532.0%42.2%49.7%99.1%99.6%Calc97.3%44.1%47.0%4.4%1.9%2.7%Calc95.2%43.29%44.67%5.07%2.14%4.8%
42
Average33.8%44.0%10.2%43.3%44.1%236.2301.84.8%44.5%47.7%64.5%91.4%Poll100.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%2.0%0.0%
9PollAvg
94.6%43.31%44.13%5.07%2.14%5.4%
43
Before UVA
PostUVA44.4%48.3%-95.1%
GallupID
98.0%41.7%48.2%5.8%2.3%2.0%UVA100.0%44.42%48.34%5.07%2.14%0.0%
44
Snapshot EV
232306StateWtd180358
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%
45
Expected EV
223.8314.2Exp. EV172.6365.4
46
2012NEP2016Gallup
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
47
Party ID38%32.0%29.0%32%28%40%
VOTE SHARES BEFORE UVA
9 Polls
48
Average38.3%36.3%25.3%30.4%29.0%40.7%57.1%42.14%45.68%5.15%2.14%75%IndDemRep
49
Wtd Avg40.2%35.0%24.8%31.8%27.9%40.3%55.6%43.21%44.70%5.09%2.14%
Vote(000)
Electoral Vote
UVA Trump
Party ID40.0%32.0%28.0%
50
ElecVoteVoteDemRepIndDemRepIndInd2pty%ClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
PostUVA
Turnout100%100%100%
51
538136,21640.5%35.2%24.2%32.0%28.0%40.0%55.6%43.21%44.70%5.09%2.14%58,86260,8926,9342,92223230635894.42%Trump% Rep
52
AK331912.8%26.7%60.5%10.1%21.2%68.7%87.2%33.3%49.6%7.1%2.8%10615823933AK92.42%Trump83.8%85.8%87.8%89.8%91.8%
53
AL92,12335.0%49.0%16.0%27.6%39.0%33.4%54.7%37.8%51.0%4.9%1.9%8031,0841033999AL94.81%% IndTrump
54
AR61,13137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%39.8%48.7%4.9%2.0%450551562266AR94.66%45.0%43.9%44.5%45.1%45.6%46.2%
55
AZ112,57328.9%34.4%36.7%22.8%27.3%49.8%68.6%38.5%47.7%5.8%2.4%9901,228149611111AZ93.72%44.0%43.5%44.1%44.67%45.2%45.8%
56
CA5514,18243.3%28.1%28.6%34.2%22.3%43.5%56.0%46.1%41.4%5.2%2.3%6,5335,87173632455CA94.20%43.0%43.1%43.7%44.3%44.8%45.4%
57
CO92,78030.9%32.9%36.2%24.4%26.2%49.5%67.0%39.7%46.6%5.7%2.4%1,1031,2961606699CO93.75%Clinton
58
CT71,64536.4%20.8%42.8%28.7%16.5%54.7%65.6%44.7%40.8%5.9%2.6%73667297437CT93.44%45.0%42.9%42.9%42.9%42.9%42.9%
59
DC331380.0%10.0%10.0%63.1%8.0%28.9%31.4%65.8%24.6%3.7%2.2%206771273DC95.34%44.0%43.3%43.3%43.29%43.3%43.3%
60
DE344247.5%28.0%24.5%37.5%22.3%40.2%51.8%47.9%40.2%4.9%2.2%21117722103DE94.43%43.0%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%
61
FL299,42038.8%35.0%26.2%30.6%27.8%41.5%57.6%42.6%45.1%5.2%2.2%4,0124,2474882052929FL94.30%
Vote Share Margin
62
GA164,11539.0%43.0%18.0%30.8%34.2%35.0%53.2%40.9%47.8%4.9%2.0%1,6831,968200801616GA94.73%45.0%1.1%1.6%2.2%2.7%3.3%
63
HI443849.0%35.0%16.0%38.7%27.8%33.5%46.4%47.0%42.2%4.6%2.0%2061852094HI94.88%44.0%0.3%0.8%1.37%1.9%2.5%
64
IA61,56631.1%32.0%36.9%24.5%25.4%50.0%67.1%40.0%46.2%5.8%2.4%626724903766IA93.72%43.0%-0.5%0.0%0.6%1.1%1.7%
65
ID469027.0%52.0%21.0%21.3%41.3%37.3%63.7%33.7%54.4%5.2%1.9%233375361344ID94.51%
Vote Margin (000)
66
IL205,53647.0%35.0%18.0%37.1%27.8%35.1%48.6%46.1%42.7%4.7%2.0%2,5532,36726011320IL94.76%45.0%1,3652,0912,8173,5434,269
67
IN112,74137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%39.8%48.7%4.9%2.0%1,0911,336135541111IN94.66%44.0%3281,0541,7802,5063,232
68
KS61,18424.7%44.1%31.2%19.5%35.1%45.4%70.0%34.5%52.3%5.7%2.2%409619672666KS93.98%43.0%-709177431,4692,195
69
KY81,92430.0%30.0%40.0%23.7%23.9%52.5%68.9%39.9%45.9%5.9%2.5%7688831144788KY95.32%
70
LA82,02927.1%27.7%45.2%21.4%22.0%56.6%72.6%39.2%45.9%6.2%2.6%7969311255288LA93.27%
71
MA113,32535.3%10.9%53.8%27.9%8.7%63.5%69.5%46.5%37.7%6.4%2.9%1,5451,2542119611MA92.87%
72
MD102,78154.9%25.7%19.4%43.3%20.4%36.2%45.5%51.6%37.2%4.6%2.2%1,4351,0361286010MD94.73%
73
ME474831.9%27.1%41.0%25.2%21.5%53.3%67.9%41.4%44.3%5.9%2.5%310331441944ME93.51%136,21658,86260,892
74
MI164,79944.0%37.0%19.0%34.7%29.4%35.9%50.8%44.4%44.3%4.8%2.0%2,1302,126230971616MI94.70%12,4046,5335,871CA
75
MN102,94544.0%39.0%17.0%34.7%31.0%34.3%49.7%43.9%45.0%4.7%2.0%1,2941,325139581010MN94.80%6,5473,6992,847NY
76
MO102,80939.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%40.7%48.2%4.8%1.9%1,1421,353135541010MO94.78%117,26548,63052,173NET
77
MS61,20938.0%46.0%16.0%30.0%36.6%33.4%52.7%39.8%49.1%4.8%1.9%481594582366MS94.82%41.47%44.49%
78
MT349733.0%51.0%16.0%26.0%40.5%33.4%56.2%36.5%52.3%4.9%1.8%18226024933MT94.80%
79
NC154,74241.7%30.4%27.9%32.9%24.2%42.9%56.6%44.9%42.7%5.2%2.3%2,1272,0232461071515NC94.23%
80
ND334436.0%47.0%17.0%28.4%37.4%34.2%54.6%38.7%50.1%4.9%1.9%13317217733ND94.76%
81
NE584430.9%48.3%20.8%24.4%38.4%37.2%60.4%36.2%52.0%5.1%1.9%3064394316144NE94.54%
82
NH474227.2%30.1%42.7%21.5%23.9%54.6%71.8%38.7%46.7%6.1%2.5%287346451944NH93.40%
83
NJ143,90732.7%19.7%47.6%25.8%15.7%58.5%69.4%43.4%41.5%6.2%2.7%1,6951,6222401051414NJ93.18%
84
NM579846.6%31.2%22.2%36.8%24.8%38.4%51.1%46.8%41.5%4.9%2.1%37433239175NM94.55%
85
NV61,12539.7%34.6%25.7%31.3%27.5%41.2%56.8%43.1%44.7%5.1%2.2%485503582466NV94.33%
86
NY297,45549.4%23.9%26.7%39.0%19.0%42.0%51.9%49.6%38.2%5.0%2.3%3,6992,84737217129NY94.33%
87
OH185,49641.0%42.0%17.0%32.4%33.4%34.2%51.4%42.0%46.9%4.8%1.9%2,3072,5782621071818OH94.79%
88
OK71,45343.7%43.6%12.7%34.5%34.7%30.8%47.2%42.8%46.7%4.5%1.9%621678662777OK95.02%
89
OR72,00137.8%29.9%32.3%36.0%28.0%36.0%50.0%45.5%43.5%4.8%2.1%910871954177OR94.62%
90
PA206,11549.5%36.7%13.8%39.1%29.2%31.8%44.8%46.8%42.6%4.5%1.9%2,8622,60727411920PA94.99%
91
RI441441.5%10.9%47.6%32.8%8.7%58.6%64.1%49.1%35.9%6.0%2.8%20314925124RI93.22%
92
SC92,10339.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%40.7%48.2%4.8%1.9%8551,0131014099SC94.78%
93
SD337033.8%46.2%20.0%26.7%36.7%36.6%57.8%37.9%50.4%5.0%1.9%14018719733SD94.60%
94
TN112,50835.0%47.0%18.0%27.6%37.4%35.0%55.9%38.3%50.4%4.9%1.9%9601,263124481111TN94.71%
95
TX388,96937.0%41.0%22.0%29.2%32.6%38.2%56.7%40.5%47.7%5.1%2.0%3,6314,2784531833838TX94.51%
96
UT61,13126.0%59.0%15.0%20.5%46.9%32.6%61.3%31.7%57.1%5.0%1.7%359646562066UT94.82%
97
VA133,98340.0%42.0%18.0%31.6%33.4%35.0%52.6%41.5%47.2%4.8%2.0%1,6551,879193781313VA94.73%
98
VT332047.0%31.0%22.0%37.1%24.6%38.3%50.8%47.0%41.4%4.9%2.1%1511331673VT94.56%
99
WA123,18445.0%45.0%10.0%35.5%35.8%28.7%44.7%43.0%46.8%4.4%1.8%1,3701,490141571212WA95.16%
100
WI102,97643.0%41.0%16.0%33.9%32.6%33.5%49.6%43.1%46.0%4.7%1.9%1,2811,368140581010WI94.85%
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