2016 Presidential Election Model
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
View only
 
 
Still loading...
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAH
1
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
2016 4-way ELECTION MODEL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
2
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR858.html
Poll10Model
(before undecided allocation)
Ipsos/Reuters
IBD/TippClinton% DemTrmp%Rep
3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
ClintonTrumpJohnsonStein1PctSteinClintonTrumpJohnson2PctSteinClintonTrumpJohnson88.44%87.78%
4
Ind40.0%33.8%43.6%8.0%5%Ind16.0%8%21%29%15%27.0%Ind37.0%4%30%47%17%2.0%81%82%2129
5
Party-ID1
1=Gallup
2=9-polls
3=Other
TurnoutDem32.0%88.4%6.0%2.0%1%Dem45.0%3%81%7%4%5.0%Dem34.0%1%90%5%1%3.0%85%88%3047
6
40%Ind40%28.8%43%100%Rep28.0%5.0%87.8%3.0%1%Rep38.0%1%6%82%5%6.0%Rep29.0%1%4%89%5%1.0%89%87%3042
7
32%Dem32%38.7%30%100%Calc94.4%43.2%43.9%4.7%2.6%Calc99.0%3.0%42.1%39.0%6.1%9.8%Calc100.0%2.1%42.9%44.9%8.1%2.1%90%90%3742
8
28%Rep28%31.9%27%100%Votes136,21658,86559,8206,3803,546Poll90%3.0%42%39.0%6.0%10.0%Poll98%2.0%43.0%45%8.0%2.0%86%91%3944
9
EVote53823230600
GallupID
85.9%4.4%36.0%36.8%8.7%14.1%
GallupID
98.0%2.2%41.9%45.3%8.5%2.0%90%89%4344
10
Undecided to Trump
75%Total100.0%45.8%46.5%5.0%2.8%3
Rasmussen
4
Quinnipiac
90%81%4049
11
TotalMoE2.5%
True Vote
100.0%44.3%48.5%4.8%2.5%Ind32%5%30%42%9%14.0%Ind26%2%37%42%8%11.0%93%89%3243
12
PollMoE3.0%Total136,17560,30365,9976,4703,405Dem40%1%85%12%1%1.0%Dem40%1%90%4%3%2.0%92%93%3252
13
Rep28%0%5%88%3%4.0%Rep34%1%4%81%11%3.0%33.7843.56
14
REPORTED
Party-IDPoll
Electoral Vote
Undecided allocated
Trump
Undecided
Calc100%2.0%45.0%42.9%4.1%6.0%Calc100%1.3%47.0%40.1%7.0%4.7%
15
POLLSIndDemRepClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob
Poll94%2.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%6.0%Poll95.0%1.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%5.0%
16
1Ipsos16%45%38%42.0%39.0%29824010.0%44.5%46.5%11.3%76.4%
GallupID
93.0%2.3%40.6%45.3%4.8%7.0%
GallupID
94.1%1.4%44.7%40.8%7.2%5.9%
17
2IBD37%34%29%43.0%45.0%2023362.0%43.5%46.5%77.1%86.2%5
Fox News
6CNN4239
18
3
Rasmussen
32%40%28%45.0%43.0%3132256.0%46.5%47.5%22.9%63.6%Ind19%4%39%44%11%2.0%Ind43%4%43%44%6%3.0%4345
19
4
Quinnipiac
26%40%34%47.0%40.0%3781605.0%48.3%43.8%0.4%5.5%Dem43%2%89%6%2%1.0%Dem31%1%93%6%0%0.0%4543
20
5Fox News19%43%38%48.0%44.0%3172211.0%48.3%44.8%7.8%10.9%Rep38%1%6%87%5%1.0%Rep26%0%6%89%2%3.0%4740
21
6CNN43%31%26%49.0%44.0%3621762.0%49.5%45.5%4.0%8.4%Calc100%2.0%48.0%44.0%4.9%1.2%Calc100%2.0%48.9%43.9%3.1%2.1%4844
22
7ABC29%37%29%47.0%45.0%3172212.0%47.5%46.5%23.9%36.4%Poll99%2.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%1.0%Poll98%2.0%49.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%4944
23
8Gravis27%40%33%47.0%45.0%2942444.0%48.0%48.0%23.9%50.0%
GallupID
98.6%2.5%45.8%43.9%6.4%1.4%
GallupID
98.0%1.9%48.6%44.4%3.0%2.0%4745
24
9LA Times30%38%32%44.0%47.0%2023360.0%44.0%47.0%85.9%85.9%7ABC8Gravis4745
25
Average28.8%38.7%31.9%45.8%43.6%2982404.7%46.7%46.2%16.5%42.6%Ind29%4%40%49%7%0.0%Ind27%2%32%43%3%20.0%4447
26
Independents%
Adj Poll (Gallup)
Electoral Vote
Undecided allocated
Trump
Undecided
Dem37%2%90%7%0%1.0%Dem40%1%92%7%0%0.0%45.7843.56
27
ClintonTrumpDiffClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob
Rep29%0%7%90%2%1.0%Rep33%0%5%93%2%0.0%
28
1Ipsos21%29%8%36.0%36.8%23929914.1%39.5%47.4%64.0%99.8%Calc95%1.9%46.9%42.9%2.6%5.7%Calc100%0.9%47.1%45.1%1.5%5.4%
29
2IBD30%47%17%41.9%45.3%2023362.0%42.4%46.9%89.9%94.7%Poll98%2.0%47.0%45.0%4.0%2.0%Poll96%1.0%47.0%45.0%3.0%4.0%
30
3
Rasmussen
30%42%12%40.6%45.3%1673717.0%42.4%50.6%96.2%99.8%
GallupID
99.4%2.2%46.8%47.0%3.4%0.6%
GallupID
92.0%1.1%43.6%45.5%1.8%8.0%
31
4
Quinnipiac
37%42%5%44.7%40.8%3352035.9%46.2%45.2%6.5%35.8%9Est.
LA Times
http://cesrusc.org/election/
10Model
32
5Fox News39%44%5%45.8%43.9%2982401.4%46.1%44.9%24.7%33.6%Ind30%5%32%52%10%1.0%Ind40.0%5%33.8%43.6%8%9.7%
33
6CNN43%44%1%48.6%44.4%3352032.0%49.2%46.0%7.0%13.7%Dem38%1%86%6%2%5.0%Dem32.0%1%88.4%6%2%2.6%89%6%
34
7ABC40%49%9%46.8%47.0%2492890.6%46.9%47.5%53.9%58.0%Rep32%0%5%91%4%0.0%Rep28.0%1%5%87.8%3%3.2%5%89%
35
8Gravis32%43%11%43.6%45.5%2163228.0%45.6%51.5%75.0%97.5%Calc100%1.9%43.9%47.0%5.0%2.2%Calc100%2.6%43.2%43.9%4.7%5.6%
36
9LA Times32%52%20%41.7%48.2%854534.6%42.9%51.6%99.1%99.9%Poll100%2.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%0.0%PollAvg95.3%2.0%45.8%43.6%4.0%4.7%
37
Average33.8%43.6%9.8%43.3%44.1%2363025.1%44.6%47.9%92.3%93.0%
GallupID
98%2.3%41.7%48.2%5.8%4.6%
GallupID
100.0%2.6%44.3%48.5%4.7%0.0%
38
Model EV
232306After UVA44.6%48.1%93.0%100.0%
True Vote
100.0%2.5%44.6%48.1%4.8%
39
Expected EV
242.1295.9Model EV187351
40
20122016Avg42.2%44.9%
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Party ID and turnout
41
201640.3%35.4%24.3%31.8%28.2%40.1%Wtd Avg2.6%43.2%43.9%4.7%
Vote(000)
Model
Electoral Vote
Ind40.0%Dem32.0%Rep28.0%
42
ElecVoteVoteDemRepIndDemRepIndInd2pty%SteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonTurnout100%100%100%
43
538136,21640.5%35.2%24.2%32.0%28.0%40.0%55.6%2.6%43.2%43.9%4.7%3,54658,86559,8206,3800232306094.42%Trump% Rep
44
AK331912.8%26.7%60.5%10.1%21.2%68.7%87.2%3.7%33.2%49.1%6.3%1210615720003092.42%Trump83.8%85.8%87.8%89.8%91.8%
45
AL92,12335.0%49.0%16.0%27.6%39.0%33.4%54.7%2.3%37.7%50.4%4.4%508001,07093009094.81%% IndTrump
46
AR61,13137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%2.4%39.7%48.1%4.5%2844954351006094.66%47.6%47.0%47.6%48.2%48.8%49.4%
47
AZ112,57328.9%34.4%36.7%22.8%27.3%49.8%68.6%3.0%38.4%47.1%5.3%779871,2121350011093.72%43.6%45.3%45.9%46.5%47.1%47.7%
48
CA5514,18243.3%28.1%28.6%34.2%22.3%43.5%56.0%2.7%46.0%40.6%4.8%3886,5285,7586850550094.20%39.6%43.6%44.2%44.8%45.4%46.0%
49
CO92,78030.9%32.9%36.2%24.4%26.2%49.5%67.0%3.0%39.6%46.0%5.2%831,1001,278145009093.75%Clinton
50
CT71,64536.4%20.8%42.8%28.7%16.5%54.7%65.6%3.2%44.7%40.1%5.4%5273665990070093.44%47.6%45.3%44.7%44.1%43.5%42.9%
51
DC331380.0%10.0%10.0%63.1%8.0%28.9%31.4%2.2%66.0%23.4%3.8%72067312030095.34%43.6%47.0%46.4%45.8%45.2%44.6%
52
DE344247.5%28.0%24.5%37.5%22.3%40.2%51.8%2.6%47.9%39.3%4.6%1221117420030094.43%39.6%48.7%48.1%47.5%46.9%46.3%
53
FL299,42038.8%35.0%26.2%30.6%27.8%41.5%57.6%2.7%42.5%44.4%4.8%2514,0054,1794490029094.30%
Vote Share Margin
54
GA164,11539.0%43.0%18.0%30.8%34.2%35.0%53.2%2.4%40.8%47.1%4.4%991,6771,9391830016094.73%47.6%1.8%3.0%4.1%5.3%6.5%
55
HI443849.0%35.0%16.0%38.7%27.8%33.5%46.4%2.3%46.9%41.3%4.3%1020518119040094.88%43.6%-1.6%-0.4%0.7%1.9%3.1%
56
IA61,56631.1%32.0%36.9%24.5%25.4%50.0%67.1%3.0%39.9%45.6%5.3%4762471482006093.72%39.6%-5.0%-3.8%-2.6%-1.5%-0.3%
57
ID469027.0%52.0%21.0%21.3%41.3%37.3%63.7%2.5%33.5%53.8%4.7%1723137232004094.51%
Vote Margin (000)
58
IL205,53647.0%35.0%18.0%37.1%27.8%35.1%48.6%2.4%46.0%41.9%4.4%1332,5492,3212430200094.76%47.6%2,4054,0205,6367,2528,868
59
IN112,74137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%2.4%39.7%48.1%4.5%671,0871,3171230011094.66%43.6%-2,212-5961,0202,6354,251
60
KS61,18424.7%44.1%31.2%19.5%35.1%45.4%70.0%2.8%34.3%51.7%5.1%3340761360006093.98%39.6%-6,829-5,213-3,597-1,981-365
61
KY81,92453.4%38.8%7.8%42.1%30.8%27.0%39.1%2.1%47.9%41.4%3.9%4092279676080095.32%
62
LA82,02927.1%27.7%45.2%21.4%22.0%56.6%72.6%3.3%39.1%45.3%5.6%66794918114008093.27%
63
MA113,32535.3%10.9%53.8%27.9%8.7%63.5%69.5%3.5%46.5%36.9%5.9%1181,5471,2281960110092.87%
64
MD102,78154.9%25.7%19.4%43.3%20.4%36.2%45.5%2.4%51.6%36.3%4.4%681,4351,0101220100094.73%
65
ME474831.9%27.1%41.0%25.2%21.5%53.3%67.9%3.1%41.3%43.6%5.4%2330932640004093.51%136,21658,86559,820
66
MI164,79944.0%37.0%19.0%34.7%29.4%35.9%50.8%2.4%44.3%43.5%4.4%1172,1262,0892130160094.70%12,2866,5285,758CA
67
MN102,94544.0%39.0%17.0%34.7%31.0%34.3%49.7%2.4%43.8%44.2%4.4%701,2911,3021290010094.80%6,4813,6992,782NY
68
MO102,80939.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%2.4%40.5%47.5%4.4%671,1391,3331240010094.78%117,44948,63851,281NET
69
MS61,20938.0%46.0%16.0%30.0%36.6%33.4%52.7%2.3%39.6%48.5%4.4%2847958653006094.82%41.41%43.66%
70
MT349733.0%51.0%16.0%26.0%40.5%33.4%56.2%2.3%36.3%51.7%4.4%1218125722003094.80%
71
NC154,74241.7%30.4%27.9%32.9%24.2%42.9%56.6%2.7%44.8%41.9%4.8%1292,1251,9862280150094.23%
72
ND334436.0%47.0%17.0%28.4%37.4%34.2%54.6%2.4%38.6%49.4%4.4%813317015003094.76%
73
NE584430.9%48.3%20.8%24.4%38.4%37.2%60.4%2.5%36.1%51.4%4.6%2130443439005094.54%
74
NH474227.2%30.1%42.7%21.5%23.9%54.6%71.8%3.2%38.6%46.1%5.5%2428734241004093.40%
75
NJ143,90732.7%19.7%47.6%25.8%15.7%58.5%69.4%3.3%43.4%40.8%5.7%1311,6951,5942210140093.18%
76
NM579846.6%31.2%22.2%36.8%24.8%38.4%51.1%2.5%46.7%40.7%4.6%2037332536050094.55%
77
NV61,12539.7%34.6%25.7%31.3%27.5%41.2%56.8%2.6%43.0%44.0%4.7%3048449553006094.33%
78
NY297,45549.4%23.9%26.7%39.0%19.0%42.0%51.9%2.7%49.6%37.3%4.7%2003,6992,7823510290094.33%
79
OH185,49641.0%42.0%17.0%32.4%33.4%34.2%51.4%2.4%41.9%46.2%4.4%1302,3012,5382410018094.79%
80
OK71,45343.7%43.6%12.7%34.5%34.7%30.8%47.2%2.2%42.7%45.9%4.2%3262066761007095.02%
81
OR72,00137.8%29.9%32.3%29.8%23.8%46.4%60.9%2.9%43.2%43.5%5.0%57865871100007094.62%
82
PA206,11549.5%36.7%13.8%39.1%29.2%31.8%44.8%2.3%46.7%41.8%4.2%1392,8582,5552570200094.99%
83
RI441441.5%10.9%47.6%32.8%8.7%58.6%64.1%3.3%49.2%35.1%5.6%1420414523040093.22%
84
SC92,10339.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%2.4%40.5%47.5%4.4%5085399893009094.78%
85
SD337033.8%46.2%20.0%26.7%36.7%36.6%57.8%2.5%37.8%49.8%4.6%914018417003094.60%
86
TN112,50835.0%47.0%18.0%27.6%37.4%35.0%55.9%2.4%38.1%49.7%4.5%609561,2471120011094.71%
87
TX388,96937.0%41.0%22.0%29.2%32.6%38.2%56.7%2.5%40.4%47.0%4.6%2273,6204,2164140038094.51%
88
UT61,13126.0%59.0%15.0%20.5%46.9%32.6%61.3%2.3%31.5%56.6%4.4%2635664050006094.82%
89
VA133,98340.0%42.0%18.0%31.6%33.4%35.0%52.6%2.4%41.4%46.5%4.4%961,6501,8511770013094.73%
90
VT332047.0%31.0%22.0%37.1%24.6%38.3%50.8%2.5%47.0%40.5%4.5%815113015030094.56%
91
WA123,18445.0%45.0%10.0%35.5%35.8%28.7%44.7%2.1%42.9%46.0%4.1%681,3661,4661300012095.16%
92
WI102,97643.0%41.0%16.0%33.9%32.6%33.5%49.6%2.3%43.0%45.2%4.3%701,2781,3461290010094.85%
93
WV571349.4%28.9%21.7%39.0%23.0%38.0%49.4%2.5%48.5%39.1%4.5%1834627932050094.59%
94
WY325619.8%66.7%13.5%15.6%53.0%31.3%66.7%2.3%27.1%61.1%4.4%66915611003094.86%
95
96
2012SteinClintonTrumpJohnsonIndDemRepClintonTrump
97
Obama48%5%75%10%10%Nov04273538Poll45.8%43.6%
2016 ELECTION MODEL
98
Romney40%3%5%85%7%Nov08373328
Undecided
46.7%46.2%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045
99
New12%10%25%45%20%Nov12333530Gallup43.3%44.1%
9 POLL SUMMARY
Prob
100
Total100%4.80%41.00%44.20%10.00%July16422828
Undecided
44.6%48.1%EVoteTrumpWinProb
Loading...
 
 
 
Model
Unadj-Reported-True
Pre-election
CallAmerica
Battleground polls
Turnout Sensitivity
Decided
True Vote Sensitivity
TrueVoteModel
2016NEPvsTV
2016 Vote
2016 CENSUS 4A
NEPRace
2016 CENSUS 4B
NEP1988-2012
StateExit
PollTrend
CALvotes
Ohio
Summary
RaceVote2014
2012-2016
Gallup
ClintonVsObama
Census2012
SortSummary
2004 vs 2016
Illinois CVS
Michigan CVS
Humboldt
CA Exit
CA CVS
Primary Exit Polls