| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | AG | AH | AI | AJ | AK | AL | AM | AN | AO | AP | AQ | AR | AS | AT | AU | AV | AW | AX | AY | AZ | BA | |
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1 | INPUT IN GREY CELLS | https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/10/13/trump-2016-landslide-do-the-math/ | CNN exit-polls | Gallup national party affiliation trend | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/did-trump-actually-win-by-13-million-votes/ | Rand Polling Methodology | Gallup: GOP-maintains edge state party affiliation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Shares | 1 | Party | ID (1-4) | 4 | https://sarmaticusblog.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/deux-ex-machina-presidential-election-electoral-map-the-forecast/ | RCP 2016 presidential election | Political party strength inU.S._states | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | NEP | 1 | State | 9 Polls | ElecDay | Trump | 2016 ELECTION MODEL - REVISION 1 | Pre-election Polls | Party-ID code=1 (Model). else actual Poll | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Pre-elect | 2 | Gallup1 | Pre-elec | Gallup | NEP | Adjusted | NEP | NEP shares | Party-ID | Ipsos/Reuters | IBD/Tipp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Turnout | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Shares | Votes | Party-ID | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Poll | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Poll | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Clinton% Dem | Clinton% Rep | Clinton% Ind | Trump%Dem | Trump%Rep | Trump% Ind | Pre-Elect Poll | Pre-elec Calc | ||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Dem | 100% | 44.1% | 38.7% | 32% | 36% | 49,186 | 36.0% | 90.7% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | Dem | 45.0% | 84% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 4.0% | Dem | 34.0% | 86% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 4.0% | 88.22% | 6.56% | 30.89% | 7.11% | 86.67% | 43.44% | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | ||||||||||||||||
8 | Rep | 100% | 42.4% | 31.2% | 28% | 33% | 45,087 | 33.0% | 8.0% | 88.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Rep | 32.0% | 5% | 86% | 3% | 2% | 4.0% | Rep | 29.0% | 6% | 85% | 5% | 0% | 4.0% | Ipsos | 84% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 86% | 36% | 42.0% | 39.0% | 44.1% | 39.2% | |||||||||||||||
9 | Ind | 100% | 13.6% | 30.1% | 40% | 31% | 42,355 | 31.0% | 42.0% | 46.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | Ind | 23.0% | 11% | 36% | 15% | 13% | 25.0% | Ind | 37.0% | 31% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 2.0% | IBD | 86% | 6% | 31% | 7% | 85% | 48% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 43.1% | 45.0% | |||||||||||||||
10 | Enter code 1-4 for Party-ID | GallupCur | Calc | 100.0% | 48.3% | 46.1% | 3.18% | 1.16% | 1.24% | Calc | 100.0% | 41.9% | 39.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 8.8% | Calc | 100.0% | 42.5% | 44.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | Rasmussen | 87% | 5% | 28% | 8% | 87% | 48% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 45.2% | 42.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
11 | Enter code 1 for NEP shares; code 2 for Pre--election shares | 31% | 32% | Votes | 136,628 | 66,008 | 62,996 | 4,345 | 1,585 | 1,694 | Poll | 100.0% | 42.0% | 39.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 10.0% | Poll | 100.0% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | Quinnipiac | 90% | 7% | 33% | 4% | 81% | 43% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | 40.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
12 | Enter turnout as a % of Party-ID | 29% | 28% | Margin | -3,011 | Post UVA | 100.0% | 45.5% | 44.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 43.8% | 46.7% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% | Fox News | 91% | 8% | 35% | 8% | 89% | 36% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 47.9% | 44.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Enter % adjustments to Trump's recorded vote shares | 40% | 40% | Gallup1 | 100.0% | 49.1% | 47.0% | 1.36% | 0.93% | 1.69% | CNN | 91% | 7% | 42% | 6% | 89% | 44% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 47.8% | 43.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided votes were flipped | Votes | 136,628 | 67,022 | 64,162 | 1,855 | 1,274 | 2,315 | Poll | Rasmussen | Poll | Quinnipiac | ABC | 87% | 8% | 37% | 8% | 85% | 45% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 43.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | by Google to Clinton. Gallup Independents (40% of the electorate) | Margin | -2,860 | 260 | 278 | Dem | 40.0% | 87% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 3.0% | Dem | 40.0% | 90% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2.0% | Gravis | 92% | 5% | 32% | 7% | 88% | 42% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 46.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | are a proxy for the NEP 40% who decided after Sept.1. | Recorded | 100.0% | 48.19% | 46.10% | 3.29% | 1.07% | 1.35% | Rep | 28.0% | 5% | 87% | 5% | 1% | 2.0% | Rep | 34.0% | 7% | 81% | 11% | 1% | 0.0% | LA Times | 86% | 8% | 29% | 9% | 90% | 49% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 44.5% | 47.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||
17 | A 6.5 million flip requires a 10% increase in Trump's 46% NEP share of | Votes | 136,628 | 65,845 | 62,980 | 4,497 | 1,462 | 1,845 | Ind | 32.0% | 28% | 48% | 7% | 4% | 13.0% | Ind | 26.0% | 33% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 14.0% | Average | 88.22% | 6.56% | 30.89% | 7.11% | 86.67% | 43.44% | 45.67% | 43.11% | 45.91% | 43.57% | ||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Independents to 56%. As the challenger. Trump would expect a solid majority | Margin | -2,865 | 232 | 306 | Calc | 100.0% | 45.2% | 42.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 5.9% | Calc | 100.0% | 47.0% | 40.3% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 4.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | of undecided Independents as the de-facto "incumbent" Clinton was unpopular. | Poll | 100.0% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 6.0% | Poll | 100.0% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Trump UVA | 60% | MoE | 3.0% | 3.0% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 47.5% | 46.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.00% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 48.7% | 43.0% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Party-ID | Pre-Elect Poll | NEP | Calc | Johnson/ | Post UVA | Pre UVA | Post UVA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | Pre-election | Dem | Rep | Ind | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Trump pop vote win prob | Fox News | CNN | %Ind | %Dem | %Rep | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 1 | Ipsos/Reuters | 45% | 32% | 23% | 42.0% | 39.0% | 41.9% | 39.0% | 10.3% | 45.5% | 44.2% | 11% | 33% | Poll | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Poll | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Johnson | Stein | Johnson | Stein | Johnson | Stein | Clinton | Trump | |||||||||||||||||||
24 | 2 | IBD/Tipp | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 42.5% | 44.8% | 9.5% | 43.8% | 46.7% | 77% | 86% | Dem | 43.0% | 91% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 1.0% | Dem | 31.0% | 91% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | 1 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 42 | 39 | ||||||||||||||||
25 | 3 | Rasmussen | 40% | 28% | 32% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 45.2% | 42.9% | 6.0% | 47.5% | 46.5% | 23% | 36% | Rep | 38.0% | 8% | 89% | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | Rep | 26.0% | 7% | 89% | 2% | 0% | 2.0% | 2 | 16% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 43 | 45 | ||||||||||||||||
26 | 4 | Quinnipiac | 40% | 34% | 26% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | 40.3% | 8.3% | 48.7% | 43.0% | 0% | 2% | Ind | 19.0% | 35% | 36% | 22% | 7% | 0.0% | Ind | 43.0% | 42% | 44% | 4% | 4% | 6.0% | 3 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 45 | 43 | ||||||||||||||||
27 | 5 | Fox News | 43% | 38% | 19% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 48.8% | 44.1% | 6.7% | 49.0% | 44.4% | 8% | 5% | Calc | 100.0% | 48.8% | 44.1% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | Calc | 100.0% | 48.1% | 43.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4 | 8% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 47 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||
28 | 6 | CNN | 31% | 26% | 43% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 48.1% | 43.9% | 4.9% | 49.3% | 45.8% | 8% | 11% | Poll | 100.0% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | Poll | 100.0% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 48 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||
29 | 7 | WaPo/ABC | 37% | 29% | 34% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 42.9% | 5.1% | 49.1% | 45.9% | 7% | 14% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 49.0% | 44.4% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 49.3% | 45.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 6 | 6% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 48 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||
30 | 8 | Gravis | 40% | 33% | 27% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 43.2% | 3.9% | 49.4% | 46.7% | 7% | 17% | 7 | 7% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 47 | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 9 | LA TImes | 38% | 32% | 30% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 43.9% | 47.0% | 6.9% | 44.8% | 48.3% | 86% | 89% | Poll | WaPo/ABC | Poll | Gravis | 8 | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 47 | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | Average | 38.67% | 31.22% | 30.11% | 45.7% | 43.1% | 45.7% | 43.1% | 6.9% | 47.5% | 45.7% | 17.4% | 27.1% | Dem | 37.0% | 87% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 3.0% | Dem | 40.0% | 92% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 0.0% | 9 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 44.00 | 47.00 | |||||||||||||||||
33 | Rep | 29.0% | 8% | 85% | 2% | 0% | 5.0% | Rep | 33.0% | 5% | 88% | 5% | 0% | 2.0% | 8.89% | 3.78% | 1.33% | 1.67% | 3.89% | 0.33% | 45.67 | 43.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | Ind | 34.0% | 37% | 45% | 10% | 1% | 7.0% | Ind | 27.0% | 32% | 42% | 5% | 2% | 19.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Increments above current scenario shares: | NEP shares | Calculate Adjusted Party-ID | Calc | 100.0% | 47.1% | 42.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 4.9% | Calc | 100.0% | 47.1% | 43.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 5.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | Party ID | Dem | Rep | Ind | Dem | Rep | Ind | Total | Poll | 100.0% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% | Poll | 100.0% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | NEP | 36.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | NEP shares | 36.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | 100.0% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 49.1% | 45.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | Post UVA | 100.0% | 49.4% | 46.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Base Case | Trump% | 7.8% | 88.0% | 46.0% | Turnout | 100% | 100% | 100% | Polling Data | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | EVote | Clinton | 260 | Trump | 278 | NEP*Turnout | 36.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | 100.0% | Poll | LA TImes | Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Clinton (D) | Trump (R) | Johnson (L) | Stein (G) | Spread | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | Vote share | 48.3% | 46.1% | Adj NEP Turnout | 36.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | 100.0% | Dem | 38.0% | 86% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 2.0% | Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 48.2 | 46.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | Clinton +2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | Votes | 66,008 | 62,996 | Base | Normalize Adj | 36.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | 100.0% | Rep | 32.0% | 8% | 90% | 2% | 0% | 0.0% | RCP Average | 11/2 - 11/7 | -- | -- | 45.5 | 42.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | Clinton +3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | Ind | 30.0% | 29% | 49% | 12% | 5% | 5.0% | Bloomberg | 11/4 - 11/6 | 799 LV | 3.5 | 44 | 41 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | Trump % Republicans | Calc | 100.0% | 43.9% | 46.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | IBD/TIPP | 11/4 - 11/7 | 1026 LV | 3.1 | 43 | 45 | 8 | 2 | Trump +2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
44 | Trump | 88.0% | 89.0% | 90.0% | 91.0% | 92.0% | Poll | 100.0% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | Econ/YouGov | 11/4 - 11/7 | 3677 LV | -- | 45 | 41 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
45 | % Ind | Trump | Post UVA | 100.0% | 44.8% | 48.3% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | ABC/Wash Post | 11/3 - 11/6 | 2220 LV | 2.5 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | 54% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 49.2% | 49.6% | 49.9% | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | FOX News | 11/3 - 11/6 | 1295 LV | 2.5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
47 | 52% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 48.6% | 49.0% | 49.3% | PreUVA | 49.1% | 47.0% | PostUVA | 49.9% | 47.8% | Monmouth | 11/3 - 11/6 | 748 LV | 3.6 | 50 | 44 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
48 | 50% | 47.3% | 47.7% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 48.7% | EV | 260 | 278 | EV | 262 | 276 | Party | National Exit Poll | Gravis | 11/3 - 11/6 | 16639 RV | 1.0 | 47 | 43 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | 48% | 46.7% | 47.1% | 47.4% | 47.7% | 48.0% | Exp. EV | 275.3 | 262.7 | Exp. EV | 275.5 | 262.5 | NEP | ID | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | NBC/WSJ | 11/3 - 11/5 | 1282 LV | 2.7 | 44 | 40 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 46% | 46.1% | 46.4% | 46.8% | 47.1% | 47.4% | Pop Vote WinProb | 23.8% | Pop Vote WinProb | 24.2% | Dem | 36% | 90.7% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | Reuters/Ipsos | 11/2 - 11/6 | 2196 LV | 2.3 | 42 | 39 | 6 | 3 | Clinton +3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Clinton | Rep | 33% | 8% | 88% | 4% | 0% | 0.0% | Rasmussen Reports | 11/2 - 11/6 | 1500 LV | 2.5 | 45 | 43 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | 54% | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.2% | 44.8% | 44.5% | Summary stats (no fraud assumed) | Ind | 31% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 4.0% | CBS News | 11/2 - 11/6 | 1426 LV | 3.0 | 45 | 41 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | 52% | 46.5% | 46.1% | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.1% | Pre-Elect shares | 217 | 321 | EVote | Calc | 100.0% | 48.31% | 46.11% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | 50% | 47.1% | 46.7% | 46.4% | 46.1% | 45.8% | Gallip1 party ID | 44.6 | 44.1 | EVote state calc | All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Polling Data | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | 48% | 47.7% | 47.4% | 47.0% | 46.7% | 46.4% | Pre-elect party ID | 46.2 | 43.0 | Party | 9 Pre-election poll average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | 46% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 47.7% | 47.3% | 47.0% | Gallup party-ID | 43.6 | 43.5 | National Voter affiliation | 9 Poll avg | ID | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Vote Share Margin | NEP party ID | 44.4 | 44.4 | Dem | 38.7% | 88.2% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 54% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | Average | 44.7 | 43.8 | Rep | 31.2% | 6.6% | 86.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | 52% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | Ind | 30.1% | 30.9% | 43.4% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 15.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 50% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | NEP shares | 291 | 247 | EVote | Calc | 100.0% | 45.5% | 42.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 7.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | 48% | -1.0% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | Gallip1 party ID | 48.5 | 45.6 | EVote state calc | 9PollAvg | 100.0% | 45.7% | 43.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 6.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | 46% | -2.2% | -1.5% | -0.9% | -0.2% | 0.4% | Pre-elect party ID | 49.9 | 44.6 | Post UVA | 100.0% | 47.5% | 45.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Vote Margin (000) | Gallup party-ID | 48.5 | 45.8 | National Voter affiliation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | 54% | 3,765 | 4,667 | 5,569 | 6,471 | 7,372 | NEP party ID | 48.2 | 46.1 | Recorded vote | Clinton% Dem | Trump%Rep | Clinton% Ind | Trump% Ind | Trump%Dem | Clinton% Rep | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | 52% | 2,071 | 2,973 | 3,875 | 4,777 | 5,678 | Average | 48.8 | 45.5 | 88.67% | 87.44% | 31.11% | 42.56% | 7.22% | 6.11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | 50% | 377 | 1,279 | 2,181 | 3,082 | 3,984 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | 48% | -1,317 | -415 | 486 | 1,388 | 2,290 | NEP | Vote Shares | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | 46% | -3,011 | -2,110 | -1,208 | -306 | 596 | National Party ID | National Pty ID * | NEP shares | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | Dem | Rep | Ind | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | 2012 Party ID | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | 36.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | 48.3% | 46.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | Dem | Rep | Ind | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | Adjusted | -2.00% | 2.00% | State Party ID * | NEP shares | 38.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
72 | 2016 | State | 42.4% | 44.5% | 13.1% | Avg | 47.5% | 48.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 43.5% | 41.3% | 15.1% | 44.51% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
73 | Recorded | Party-ID | 44.1% | 42.4% | 13.6% | Wtd | 49.1% | 47.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | Model Weighted Vote | Model Evote | Recorded | Model | DTChg | DTMod | DTRec | 44.5% | 39.9% | 15.6% | Adjustment | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | ElecVote | 2016Vote | Clinton | Trump | Other | Dem | Rep | Ind | Ind/Trump | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Margin | %Ind | %Ind | Dem | Rep | Ind | Actual Gallup | Adjusted Gallup | ||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 538 | 136,216 | 48.4% | 46.1% | 5.5% | 44.1% | 42.4% | 13.6% | 28.3% | 49.1% | 47.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 66,820 | 63,968 | 1,849 | 1,270 | 260 | 278 | 48.4% | 46.1% | 49.1% | 47.0% | 0.2% | 44.5% | 27.8% | 44.5% | 39.9% | 15.6% | 136,216,677 | 65,719,398 | 62,889,892 | Dem | Rep | Dem | Rep | |||||||||||||||||
76 | AK | 3 | 319 | 36.6% | 51.3% | 12.2% | 36.9% | 47.4% | 15.7% | 30.6% | 43.9% | 51.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 140 | 165 | 5 | 3 | AK | 3 | 36.6% | 51.3% | 43.9% | 51.8% | -6.8% | 28.1% | 24.7% | 34.3% | 46.5% | 19.2% | Final CNN 2016 exit poll (reported) | Alabama | 2,123,372 | WTA | 729,547 | 34.36% | – | 1,318,255 | 62.08% | AK | 36.9% | 45.4% | 36.9% | 47.4% | |||||||||
77 | AL | 9 | 2,123 | 34.4% | 62.1% | 3.6% | 34.8% | 53.8% | 11.4% | 18.4% | 40.7% | 55.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 863 | 1,174 | 24 | 16 | AL | 9 | 34.4% | 62.1% | 40.7% | 55.3% | -13.1% | 13.2% | 72.6% | 35.7% | 50.3% | 14.0% | 28 states only | Alaska | 318,608 | WTA | 116,454 | 36.55% | – | 163,387 | 51.28% | AL | 34.8% | 51.8% | 34.8% | 53.8% | |||||||||
78 | AR | 6 | 1,131 | 33.7% | 60.6% | 5.8% | 34.3% | 50.6% | 15.1% | 24.9% | 41.5% | 54.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 469 | 612 | 17 | 9 | AR | 6 | 33.7% | 60.6% | 41.5% | 54.1% | -14.3% | 23.5% | 66.0% | 40.8% | 42.2% | 17.0% | Votes | Share | Democrat | Repub | Ind | Trump | Arizona | 2,573,165 | WTA | 1,161,167 | 45.13% | – | 1,252,401 | 48.67% | AR | 34.3% | 48.6% | 34.3% | 50.6% | ||||
79 | AZ | 11 | 2,573 | 45.1% | 48.7% | 6.2% | 41.4% | 43.7% | 14.9% | 30.6% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1,217 | 1,249 | 38 | 24 | AZ | 11 | 45.1% | 48.7% | 47.3% | 48.5% | -2.3% | 32.5% | 33.4% | 40.5% | 44.0% | 15.5% | Avg | 110,702 | 35.29% | 32.50% | 32.21% | 46.73% | Arkansas | 1,130,635 | WTA | 380,494 | 33.65% | – | 684,872 | 60.57% | AZ | 41.4% | 41.7% | 41.4% | 43.7% | ||||
80 | CA | 55 | 14,182 | 61.7% | 31.6% | 6.7% | 50.3% | 34.0% | 15.7% | 49.7% | 54.9% | 41.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 7,791 | 5,824 | 223 | 152 | CA | 55 | 61.7% | 31.6% | 54.9% | 41.1% | 16.2% | 45.0% | -15.2% | 48.4% | 33.5% | 18.1% | Wtd Avg | 37.46% | 31.76% | 30.78% | 45.20% | California | dl | 14,181,595 | WTA | 8,753,788 | 61.73% | 55 | 4,483,810 | 31.62% | CA | 50.3% | 32.0% | 50.3% | 34.0% | ||||
81 | CO | 9 | 2,780 | 48.2% | 43.3% | 8.6% | 42.4% | 45.0% | 12.6% | 29.1% | 47.3% | 48.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1,316 | 1,354 | 35 | 25 | CO | 9 | 48.2% | 43.3% | 47.3% | 48.7% | 6.3% | 29.4% | -13.9% | 41.3% | 43.7% | 15.0% | AZ | 2,573 | 28% | 32% | 40% | 48.7% | Colorado | dl | 2,780,220 | WTA | 1,338,870 | 48.16% | 9 | 1,202,484 | 43.25% | CO | 42.4% | 43.0% | 42.4% | 45.0% | |||
82 | CT | 7 | 1,645 | 54.6% | 40.9% | 4.5% | 51.1% | 34.8% | 14.1% | 34.4% | 55.1% | 41.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 906 | 676 | 23 | 17 | CT | 7 | 54.6% | 40.9% | 55.1% | 41.1% | -0.3% | 44.7% | 43.5% | 50.9% | 33.9% | 15.2% | CA | 14,182 | 47% | 23% | 30% | 31.6% | Connecticut | dl | 1,644,920 | WTA | 897,572 | 54.57% | 7 | 673,215 | 40.93% | CT | 51.1% | 32.8% | 51.1% | 34.8% | |||
83 | DC | 3 | 313 | 90.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 77.4% | 15.3% | 7.3% | - | 74.5% | 22.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 233 | 71 | 2 | 4 | DC | 3 | 90.5% | 4.1% | 74.5% | 22.9% | 34.8% | - | - | 77.4% | 13.3% | 9.3% | CO | 2,780 | 32% | 24% | 44% | 43.3% | Delaware | dl | 441,590 | WTA | 235,603 | 53.35% | 3 | 185,127 | 41.92% | DC | 77.4% | 13.3% | 77.4% | 15.3% | |||
84 | DE | 3 | 442 | 53.4% | 41.9% | 4.7% | 53.4% | 36.1% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 55.7% | 40.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 246 | 180 | 5 | 4 | DE | 3 | 53.4% | 41.9% | 55.7% | 40.8% | -3.5% | 44.4% | 55.4% | 50.6% | 34.1% | 15.3% | FL | 9,420 | 32% | 33% | 35% | 49.0% | District of Columbia | dl | 312,575 | WTA | 282,830 | 90.48% | 3 | 12,723 | 4.07% | DE | 53.4% | 34.1% | 53.4% | 36.1% | |||
85 | FL | 29 | 9,420 | 47.8% | 49.0% | 3.2% | 42.5% | 43.4% | 14.1% | 28.8% | 47.9% | 48.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 4,516 | 4,521 | 133 | 87 | FL | 29 | 47.8% | 49.0% | 47.9% | 48.0% | -1.1% | 32.6% | 39.9% | 44.7% | 40.2% | 15.1% | GA | 4,115 | 34% | 36% | 30% | 50.8% | Florida | 9,420,039 | WTA | 4,504,975 | 47.82% | – | 4,617,886 | 49.02% | FL | 42.5% | 41.4% | 42.5% | 43.4% | ||||
86 | GA | 16 | 4,115 | 45.6% | 50.8% | 3.6% | 41.9% | 45.1% | 13.0% | 25.6% | 47.1% | 48.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1,937 | 2,014 | 53 | 37 | GA | 16 | 45.6% | 50.8% | 47.1% | 48.9% | -3.3% | 29.5% | 43.6% | 40.4% | 45.1% | 14.5% | IA | 1,566 | 31% | 34% | 35% | 51.1% | Georgia | 4,114,732 | WTA | 1,877,963 | 45.64% | – | 2,089,104 | 50.77% | GA | 41.9% | 43.1% | 41.9% | 45.1% | ||||
87 | HI | 4 | 438 | 61.0% | 29.4% | 9.6% | 49.8% | 33.1% | 17.1% | 58.1% | 55.0% | 40.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 241 | 179 | 7 | 5 | HI | 4 | 61.0% | 29.4% | 55.0% | 40.9% | 17.4% | 45.5% | -21.4% | 53.6% | 29.6% | 16.8% | IL | 5,536 | 45% | 30% | 25% | 38.8% | Hawaii | dl | 437,664 | WTA | 266,891 | 60.98% | 4 | 128,847 | 29.44% | HI | 49.8% | 31.1% | 49.8% | 33.1% | |||
88 | IA | 6 | 1,566 | 41.7% | 51.2% | 7.1% | 39.5% | 47.3% | 13.2% | 25.8% | 45.2% | 50.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 707 | 795 | 21 | 13 | IA | 6 | 41.7% | 51.2% | 45.2% | 50.8% | -3.8% | 26.3% | 29.2% | 44.6% | 40.3% | 15.1% | IN | 2,741 | 34% | 39% | 27% | 56.8% | Idaho | 690,255 | WTA | 189,765 | 27.49% | – | 409,055 | 59.26% | IA | 39.5% | 45.3% | 39.5% | 47.3% | ||||
89 | ID | 4 | 690 | 27.5% | 59.3% | 13.3% | 29.4% | 57.6% | 13.0% | 21.9% | 36.7% | 59.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 254 | 407 | 9 | 5 | ID | 4 | 27.5% | 59.3% | 36.7% | 59.0% | -9.5% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 28.4% | 56.0% | 15.6% | KY | 1,924 | 38% | 44% | 18% | 62.5% | Illinois | dl | 5,536,424 | WTA | 3,090,729 | 55.83% | 20 | 2,146,015 | 38.76% | ID | 29.4% | 55.6% | 29.4% | 57.6% | |||
90 | IL | 20 | 5,536 | 55.8% | 38.8% | 5.4% | 51.5% | 35.6% | 12.9% | 33.3% | 55.0% | 41.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3,044 | 2,285 | 71 | 57 | IL | 20 | 55.8% | 38.8% | 55.0% | 41.3% | 3.4% | 44.0% | 24.5% | 50.4% | 33.7% | 15.9% | ME | 748 | 32% | 27% | 41% | 44.9% | Indiana | 2,740,958 | WTA | 1,039,126 | 37.91% | – | 1,557,286 | 56.82% | IL | 51.5% | 33.6% | 51.5% | 35.6% | ||||
91 | IN | 11 | 2,741 | 37.9% | 56.8% | 5.3% | 37.2% | 47.2% | 15.6% | 27.5% | 44.1% | 51.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1,208 | 1,415 | 43 | 24 | IN | 11 | 37.9% | 56.8% | 44.1% | 51.6% | -11.4% | 28.3% | 61.7% | 39.9% | 44.2% | 15.9% | MI | 4,799 | 40% | 31% | 29% | 47.5% | Iowa | 1,566,031 | WTA | 653,669 | 41.74% | – | 800,983 | 51.15% | IN | 37.2% | 45.2% | 37.2% | 47.2% | ||||
92 | KS | 6 | 1,184 | 36.1% | 56.7% | 7.3% | 33.9% | 52.8% | 13.3% | 23.5% | 40.6% | 55.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 480 | 654 | 16 | 9 | KS | 6 | 36.1% | 56.7% | 40.6% | 55.2% | -5.9% | 18.2% | 28.9% | 34.8% | 51.1% | 14.1% | MN | 2,945 | 37% | 35% | 28% | 44.9% | Kansas | 1,184,402 | WTA | 427,005 | 36.05% | – | 671,018 | 56.65% | KS | 33.9% | 50.8% | 33.9% | 52.8% | ||||
93 | KY | 8 | 1,924 | 32.7% | 62.5% | 4.8% | 39.9% | 51.1% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 848 | 1,005 | 17 | 15 | KY | 8 | 32.7% | 62.5% | 44.1% | 52.2% | -21.7% | 12.4% | 126.9% | 44.4% | 42.9% | 12.7% | MO | 2,809 | 34% | 39% | 27% | 56.8% | Kentucky | 1,924,149 | WTA | 628,854 | 32.68% | – | 1,202,971 | 62.52% | KY | 39.9% | 49.1% | 39.9% | 51.1% | ||||
94 | LA | 8 | 2,029 | 38.5% | 58.1% | 3.5% | 41.1% | 47.5% | 11.4% | 19.6% | 45.9% | 50.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 931 | 1,020 | 23 | 17 | LA | 8 | 38.5% | 58.1% | 45.9% | 50.2% | -15.3% | 24.1% | 92.9% | 41.7% | 43.0% | 15.3% | NC | 4,742 | 35% | 31% | 34% | 49.8% | Louisiana | 2,029,032 | WTA | 780,154 | 38.45% | – | 1,178,638 | 58.09% | LA | 41.1% | 45.5% | 41.1% | 47.5% | ||||
95 | MA | 11 | 3,325 | 60.0% | 32.8% | 7.2% | 54.1% | 31.2% | 14.7% | 44.8% | 57.7% | 38.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1,920 | 1,278 | 49 | 37 | MA | 11 | 60.0% | 32.8% | 57.7% | 38.4% | 7.9% | 49.2% | 11.0% | 52.4% | 32.4% | 15.2% | NH | 742 | 28% | 28% | 44% | 46.6% | Maine (at-large) | 747,927 | CD[e] | 357,735 | 47.83% | 2 | 335,593 | 44.87% | MA | 54.1% | 29.2% | 54.1% | 31.2% | ||||
96 | MD | 10 | 2,781 | 60.3% | 33.9% | 5.8% | 54.5% | 33.3% | 12.2% | 36.0% | 57.2% | 39.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1,592 | 1,089 | 34 | 30 | MD | 10 | 60.3% | 33.9% | 57.2% | 39.2% | 8.4% | 48.1% | 5.0% | 55.5% | 32.4% | 12.1% | NJ | 3,907 | 43% | 27% | 30% | 41.0% | Maryland | dl | 2,781,446 | WTA | 1,677,928 | 60.33% | 10 | 943,169 | 33.91% | MD | 54.5% | 31.3% | 54.5% | 33.3% | |||
97 | ME | 4 | 748 | 47.8% | 44.9% | 7.3% | 43.6% | 41.7% | 14.7% | 32.8% | 49.1% | 46.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 367 | 350 | 11 | 7 | ME | 1 | 3 | 47.8% | 44.9% | 49.1% | 46.9% | 0.8% | 35.1% | 21.6% | 45.9% | 37.7% | 16.4% | NM | 798 | 41% | 27% | 32% | 40.0% | Massachusetts | 3,325,046 | WTA | 1,995,196 | 60.01% | 11 | 1,090,893 | 32.81% | ME | 43.6% | 39.7% | 43.6% | 41.7% | |||
98 | MI | 16 | 4,799 | 47.3% | 47.5% | 5.2% | 43.7% | 40.8% | 15.5% | 32.6% | 49.4% | 46.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2,371 | 2,229 | 74 | 46 | MI | 16 | 47.3% | 47.5% | 49.4% | 46.4% | -3.2% | 36.4% | 43.2% | 48.4% | 36.1% | 15.5% | NV | 1,125 | 36% | 28% | 36% | 45.5% | Michigan | 4,799,284 | WTA | 2,268,839 | 47.27% | – | 2,279,543 | 47.50% | MI | 43.7% | 38.8% | 43.7% | 40.8% | ||||
99 | MN | 10 | 2,945 | 46.4% | 44.9% | 8.6% | 45.1% | 42.4% | 12.5% | 27.8% | 49.5% | 46.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1,459 | 1,372 | 37 | 27 | MN | 10 | 46.4% | 44.9% | 49.5% | 46.6% | -1.4% | 33.4% | 20.2% | 41.4% | 46.5% | 12.1% | NY | 7,456 | 48% | 26% | 26% | 36.7% | Minnesota | 2,944,813 | WTA | 1,367,716 | 46.44% | 10 | 1,322,951 | 44.92% | MN | 45.1% | 40.4% | 45.1% | 42.4% | ||||
100 | MO | 10 | 2,809 | 38.1% | 56.8% | 5.1% | 39.0% | 49.3% | 11.7% | 20.6% | 44.2% | 51.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1,242 | 1,455 | 33 | 23 | MO | 10 | 38.1% | 56.8% | 44.2% | 51.8% | -11.1% | 21.4% | 63.8% | 48.6% | 37.3% | 14.1% | OH | 5,496 | 34% | 37% | 29% | 51.7% | Mississippi | 1,209,357 | WTA | 485,131 | 40.11% | – | 700,714 | 57.94% | MO | 39.0% | 47.3% | 39.0% | 49.3% | ||||