2016 Presidential Election Model
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO
1
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/10/24/cnn.poll.pdf
2016 ELECTION MODEL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
3
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR858.html
4
Party-ID
Vote shares >>>>
9 PollsAdjustPoll ID
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll ID
IBD/Tipp
5
GallupPctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClinton1PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther2PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherClinton% DemTrump%RepClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% DemTrump%RepTrump%DemClinton% Rep
6
INPUT IN GREY CELLS BELOW
Ind40.0%33.78%43.56%8.89%3.78%0%Ind17%21%29%15%8%27.0%Ind37%30%47%16%3%4.0%88.11%87.78%33.78%43.56%33.78%44.67%88.00%87.33%
7
Party-ID
Gallup9 pollsEDayNEPDem32.0%88.11%6.89%1.33%1.67%0%Dem45%81%7%4%3%5.0%Dem34%87%7%0%3%3.0%Ipsos81%86%21%29%21%29%81%86%7%6%
8
Poll Shares
11234TurnoutRep28.0%5.56%87.78%3.89%0.33%0%Rep32%6%86%5%1%2.0%Rep29%6%85%5%0%4.0%IBD87%85%30%47%30%47%87%88%7%6%
9
Poll ID10Ind40%28.9%38.0%31%100%
PreUVA
94.7%43.26%44.20%5.07%2.14%Calc86.5%41.9%35.6%6.0%3.0%13.5%Calc96.3%42.4%44.4%7.4%2.1%3.7%Rasmussen85%88%30%42%30%52%89%87%12%5%
10
NEP11Dem32%38.7%30.5%36%100%Votes128,96355,79257,0076,5402,757Poll90.0%42.0%39.0%6.0%3.0%10.0%Poll98.0%43.0%45%8.0%2.0%2.0%Quinnipiac90%81%37%42%37%42%90%90%4%4%
11
9 Polls10Rep28%29.3%27.0%33%100%EVote537231306
GallupID
85.9%36.0%36.8%8.7%4.4%14.1%
GallupID
98.0%41.9%45.3%8.5%2.2%2.0%Fox News89%87%39%44%39%44%86%91%6%6%
12
StateWtdUVA100.0%44.33%48.43%5.07%2.14%CNN93%89%43%44%43%44%86%85%6%6%
13
UVA Trump
75%GallupIndDemRepVotes136,21660,38765,9676,9082,9123
Rasmussen
4
Quinnipiac
ABC90%90%40%49%40%49%90%81%7%7%
14
TotalMoE2.5%Nov1-636%31%27%Evote538182356Ind32%30%42%4%2%22.0%Ind26%37%42%8%2%11.0%Gravis92%93%32%43%32%43%93%89%7%5%
15
PollMoE3.0%
Nov9-13
40%30%27%
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%Dem40%85%12%1%1%1.0%Dem40%90%4%3%1%2.0%LA Times86%91%32%52%32%52%92%93%6%5%
16
EDay38%30.5%27%Votes136,21665,71962,8904,4831,454Rep19%5%88%3%0%4.0%Rep34%4%81%11%1%3.0%88.11%87.78%33.78%43.56%33.78%44.67%88.22%87.78%6.89%5.56%
17
NEP31%36%33%EVote538232306Calc82.8%44.6%35.0%2.3%1.0%17.2%Calc95.3%47.0%40.1%7.0%1.3%4.7%
18
9Polls28.89%38.67%29.33%
(View Pre UVA Sensitivity analysis in cell X45)
Poll94.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%2.0%6.0%Poll95.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%1.0%5.0%
19
Pre-election
Party-ID
Poll
Electoral Vote
75%
Post UVA Reported
Pre UVA
Post UVA
GallupID
93.0%40.6%45.3%4.8%2.3%7.0%
GallupID
94.1%44.7%40.8%7.2%1.4%5.9%
20
PollsIndDemRepClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob
%Ind%Dem%Rep
21
1Ipsos17%45%32%42.0%39.0%29824010.0%44.5%46.5%11.3%76.4%5
Fox News
6CNNJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
22
2IBD37%34%29%43.0%45.0%2023362.0%43.5%46.5%77.1%86.2%Ind19%39%44%11%4%2.0%Ind43%43%44%6%4%3.0%115%8%4%3%1%1%4239
23
3
Rasmussen
32%40%19%45.0%43.0%3132256.0%46.5%47.5%22.9%63.6%Dem43%89%6%2%2%1.0%Dem31%93%6%0%1%0.0%216%3%0%3%5%0%4345
24
4
Quinnipiac
26%40%34%47.0%40.0%3781605.0%48.3%43.8%0.4%5.5%Rep29%6%87%5%1%1.0%Rep26%6%89%2%0%3.0%34%2%1%1%3%0%4543
25
5Fox News19%43%29%48.0%44.0%3172211.0%48.3%44.8%7.8%10.9%Calc89.9%47.4%36.2%4.4%1.9%10.1%Calc97.9%48.9%43.9%3.1%2.0%2.1%48%2%3%1%11%1%4740
26
6CNN43%31%26%49.0%44.0%3621762.0%49.5%45.5%4.0%8.4%Poll99.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%Poll98.0%49.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%511%4%2%2%5%1%4844
27
7ABC29%37%30%47.0%44.0%3172213.0%47.8%46.3%14.1%30.1%
GallupID
98.6%45.8%43.9%6.4%2.5%1.4%
GallupID
98.0%48.6%44.4%3.0%1.9%2.0%66%4%0%1%2%0%4944
28
8Gravis27%40%33%47.0%45.0%2942444.0%48.0%48.0%23.9%50.0%77%4%0%2%2%0%4744
29
9LA Times30%38%32%44.0%47.0%2023360.0%44.0%47.0%85.9%85.9%7ABC8Gravis83%2%0%1%2%0%4745
30
Average28.89%38.67%29.33%45.78%43.44%298.1239.95.4%46.7%46.2%15.3%41.6%Ind29%40%49%7%4%0.0%Ind27%32%43%3%2%20.0%910%5%2%1%4%0%4447
31
ADJUSTED
Indep %-Pre-elec polls
Adj Poll (Gallup)
ElecVote pre UVA
75%
Post UVA Gallup
Pre-UVA
Post UVA
Dem37%90%7%0%2%1.0%Dem40%92%7%0%1%0.0%8.89%3.78%1.33%1.67%3.89%0.33%45.7843.44
32
GALLUPClintonTrumpDiffClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob
Rep30%7%90%2%0%1.0%Rep33%5%93%2%0%0.0%
33
1Ipsos21%29%8%36.0%36.8%23929914.1%39.5%47.4%64.0%99.8%Calc95.3%47.0%43.8%2.6%1.9%4.7%Calc94.6%47.1%45.1%1.5%0.9%5.4%
34
2IBD30%47%17%41.9%45.3%2023362.0%42.4%46.9%89.9%94.7%Poll97.0%47.0%44.0%4.0%2.0%3.0%Poll96%47.0%45.0%3.0%1.0%4.0%
35
3
Rasmussen
30%42%12%40.6%45.3%1673717.0%42.4%50.6%96.2%99.8%
GallupID
99.4%46.8%47.0%3.4%2.2%0.6%
GallupID
92%43.6%45.5%1.8%1.1%8.0%
36
4
Quinnipiac
37%42%5%44.7%40.8%3352035.9%46.2%45.2%6.5%35.8%
37
5Fox News39%44%5%45.8%43.9%2982401.4%46.1%44.9%24.7%33.6%9
LA Times
http://cesrusc.org/election/
10Gallup9 Polls
38
6CNN43%44%1%48.6%44.4%3352032.0%49.2%46.0%7.0%13.7%Ind30%32%52%10%5%1.0%Ind40.0%33.8%43.6%8.9%3.8%10.0%
39
7ABC40%49%9%46.8%47.0%2492890.6%46.9%47.5%53.9%58.0%Dem38%86%6%2%1%5.0%Dem32.0%88.1%6.9%1.3%1.7%2.0%
40
8Gravis32%43%11%43.6%45.5%2163228.0%45.6%51.5%75.0%97.5%Rep30%5%91%4%0%0.0%Rep28.0%5.6%87.8%3.9%0.3%2.4%
41
9LA Times32%52%20%41.7%48.2%854532.0%42.2%49.7%99.1%99.6%Calc95.8%43.8%45.2%5.0%1.9%4.2%Calc94.7%43.26%44.20%5.07%2.14%5.3%
42
Average33.78%43.56%9.78%43.31%44.13%236.2301.84.8%44.50%47.72%64.5%91.4%Poll100.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%2.0%0.0%
9PollAvg
94.6%43.31%44.13%5.07%2.14%5.4%
43
Before UVA
PostUVA44.33%48.43%-95.8%
GallupID
98.0%41.7%48.2%5.8%2.3%2.0%UVA100.0%44.33%48.43%5.07%2.14%0.0%
44
Snapshot EV
231306
StateWtd
182356
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%
45
Expected EV
232.0306.0Exp. EV176.8361.2
46
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
47
20122016
VOTE SHARES BEFORE UVA
9 Polls
48
Average38.3%36.3%25.3%30.4%29.0%40.7%57.1%42.11%45.24%5.15%2.14%75%IndDemRep
49
Wtd Avg39.9%35.3%24.8%31.6%28.1%40.3%55.6%43.18%44.25%5.09%2.14%
Vote(000)
Electoral Vote
UVA Trump
Party ID40.0%32.0%28.0%
50
ElecVoteVoteDemRepIndDemRepIndInd2pty%ClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
PostUVA
Turnout100%100%100%
51
538136,21640.5%35.2%24.2%32.0%28.0%40.0%55.6%43.18%44.25%5.09%2.14%58,82060,2736,9342,92223130635694.42%Trump% Rep
52
AK331912.8%26.7%60.5%10.1%21.2%68.7%87.2%33.3%49.2%7.1%2.8%1061572393392.42%Trump83.8%85.8%87.8%89.8%91.8%
53
AL92,12335.0%49.0%16.0%27.6%39.0%33.4%54.7%37.8%50.7%4.9%1.9%8021,076103399994.81%% IndTrump
54
AR61,13137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%39.8%48.3%4.9%2.0%45054656226694.66%44.6%43.5%44.0%44.6%45.2%45.7%
55
AZ112,57328.9%34.4%36.7%22.8%27.3%49.8%68.6%38.5%47.3%5.8%2.4%9891,21714961111193.72%43.6%43.1%43.6%44.20%44.8%45.3%
56
CA5514,18243.3%28.1%28.6%34.2%22.3%43.5%56.0%46.0%40.9%5.2%2.3%6,5295,8017363245594.20%42.6%42.7%43.2%43.8%44.4%44.9%
57
CO92,78030.9%32.9%36.2%24.4%26.2%49.5%67.0%39.6%46.2%5.7%2.4%1,1021,284160669993.75%Clinton
58
CT71,64536.4%20.8%42.8%28.7%16.5%54.7%65.6%44.7%40.3%5.9%2.6%7366639743793.44%44.6%42.9%42.9%42.9%42.9%42.9%
59
DC331380.0%10.0%10.0%63.1%8.0%28.9%31.4%65.8%23.9%3.7%2.2%20675127395.34%43.6%43.3%43.3%43.26%43.3%43.3%
60
DE344247.5%28.0%24.5%37.5%22.3%40.2%51.8%47.9%39.7%4.9%2.2%2111752210394.43%42.6%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%
61
FL299,42038.8%35.0%26.2%30.6%27.8%41.5%57.6%42.6%44.6%5.2%2.2%4,0094,204488205292994.30%
Vote Share Margin
62
GA164,11539.0%43.0%18.0%30.8%34.2%35.0%53.2%40.9%47.4%4.9%2.0%1,6811,95020080161694.73%44.6%0.6%1.2%1.7%2.3%2.9%
63
HI443849.0%35.0%16.0%38.7%27.8%33.5%46.4%46.9%41.7%4.6%2.0%205182209494.88%43.6%-0.2%0.4%0.94%1.5%2.1%
64
IA61,56631.1%32.0%36.9%24.5%25.4%50.0%67.1%39.9%45.8%5.8%2.4%62571790376693.72%42.6%-1.0%-0.4%0.1%0.7%1.3%
65
ID469027.0%52.0%21.0%21.3%41.3%37.3%63.7%33.7%54.0%5.2%1.9%23337336134494.51%
Vote Margin (000)
66
IL205,53647.0%35.0%18.0%37.1%27.8%35.1%48.6%46.1%42.3%4.7%2.0%2,5512,3402601132094.76%44.6%8021,5252,2472,9693,691
67
IN112,74137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%39.8%48.3%4.9%2.0%1,0901,32413554111194.66%43.6%-2294931,2151,9372,660
68
KS61,18424.7%44.1%31.2%19.5%35.1%45.4%70.0%34.5%51.9%5.7%2.2%40861567266693.98%42.6%-1,261-5391839061,628
69
KY81,92430.0%30.0%40.0%23.7%23.9%52.5%68.9%39.9%45.4%5.9%2.5%768874114478895.32%
70
LA82,02927.1%27.7%45.2%21.4%22.0%56.6%72.6%39.2%45.5%6.2%2.6%795922125528893.27%
71
MA113,32535.3%10.9%53.8%27.9%8.7%63.5%69.5%46.5%37.2%6.4%2.9%1,5451,236211961192.87%
72
MD102,78154.9%25.7%19.4%43.3%20.4%36.2%45.5%51.6%36.7%4.6%2.2%1,4341,021128601094.73%
73
ME474831.9%27.1%41.0%25.2%21.5%53.3%67.9%41.4%43.9%5.9%2.5%30932844193193.51%136,21658,82060,273
74
MI164,79944.0%37.0%19.0%34.7%29.4%35.9%50.8%44.3%43.8%4.8%2.0%2,1282,10423097161694.70%12,3306,5295,801CA
75
MN102,94544.0%39.0%17.0%34.7%31.0%34.3%49.7%43.9%44.5%4.7%2.0%1,2931,31113958101094.80%6,5053,6982,808NY
76
MO102,80939.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%40.6%47.7%4.8%1.9%1,1411,34113554101094.78%117,38048,59351,664NET
77
MS61,20938.0%46.0%16.0%30.0%36.6%33.4%52.7%39.8%48.7%4.8%1.9%48158958236694.82%41.40%44.01%
78
MT349733.0%51.0%16.0%26.0%40.5%33.4%56.2%36.5%51.9%4.9%1.8%1812582493394.80%
79
NC154,74241.7%30.4%27.9%32.9%24.2%42.9%56.6%44.8%42.2%5.2%2.3%2,1262,000246107151594.23%
80
ND334436.0%47.0%17.0%28.4%37.4%34.2%54.6%38.7%49.7%4.9%1.9%1331711773394.76%
81
NE584430.9%48.3%20.8%24.4%38.4%37.2%60.4%36.2%51.6%5.1%1.9%30643643165594.54%
82
NH474227.2%30.1%42.7%21.5%23.9%54.6%71.8%38.7%46.3%6.1%2.5%28734345194493.40%
83
NJ143,90732.7%19.7%47.6%25.8%15.7%58.5%69.4%43.4%41.0%6.2%2.7%1,6951,602240105141493.18%
84
NM579846.6%31.2%22.2%36.8%24.8%38.4%51.1%46.8%41.0%4.9%2.1%3733283917594.55%
85
NV61,12539.7%34.6%25.7%31.3%27.5%41.2%56.8%43.0%44.2%5.1%2.2%48449858246694.33%
86
NY297,45549.4%23.9%26.7%39.0%19.0%42.0%51.9%49.6%37.7%5.0%2.3%3,6982,8083721712994.33%
87
OH185,49641.0%42.0%17.0%32.4%33.4%34.2%51.4%41.9%46.5%4.8%1.9%2,3052,554262107181894.79%
88
OK71,45343.7%43.6%12.7%34.5%34.7%30.8%47.2%42.7%46.2%4.5%1.9%62167266277795.02%
89
OR72,00137.8%29.9%32.3%36.0%28.0%36.0%50.0%45.4%43.5%4.8%2.1%90987195417794.62%
90
PA206,11549.5%36.7%13.8%39.1%29.2%31.8%44.8%46.8%42.1%4.5%1.9%2,8602,5772741192094.99%
91
RI441441.5%10.9%47.6%32.8%8.7%58.6%64.1%49.1%35.4%6.0%2.8%2031462512493.22%
92
SC92,10339.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%40.6%47.7%4.8%1.9%8541,004101409994.78%
93
SD337033.8%46.2%20.0%26.7%36.7%36.6%57.8%37.9%50.0%5.0%1.9%1401851973394.60%
94
TN112,50835.0%47.0%18.0%27.6%37.4%35.0%55.9%38.2%50.0%4.9%1.9%9591,25312448111194.71%
95
TX388,96937.0%41.0%22.0%29.2%32.6%38.2%56.7%40.4%47.3%5.1%2.0%3,6284,239453183383894.51%
96
UT61,13126.0%59.0%15.0%20.5%46.9%32.6%61.3%31.7%56.8%5.0%1.7%35964256206694.82%
97
VA133,98340.0%42.0%18.0%31.6%33.4%35.0%52.6%41.5%46.7%4.8%2.0%1,6531,86219378131394.73%
98
VT332047.0%31.0%22.0%37.1%24.6%38.3%50.8%47.0%40.9%4.9%2.1%151131167394.56%
99
WA123,18445.0%45.0%10.0%35.5%35.8%28.7%44.7%43.0%46.4%4.4%1.8%1,3681,47614157121295.16%
100
WI102,97643.0%41.0%16.0%33.9%32.6%33.5%49.6%43.0%45.5%4.7%1.9%1,2801,35514058101094.85%
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ForecastModel
Unadj-Rep-True
EP/Party-ID
DecidedSept
TVMNational
ModelSens
Pre-election Trend
TVM2 Party-ID
IllegalUnctdFlip
2016Vote
2012-2016
NEPvsTVM
StateExitGender
NEPRace
GallupPartyID
RCP PollTrend
DecidedOct
DecidedCNN
Approval Ratings
Approval vs. vote
CallAmerica
Battleground polls
2016 CENSUS 4A
2016 CENSUS 4B
NEP1988-2012
Primary Exit Polls
RaceVote2014
ClintonVsObama
2004 vs 2016
Illinois CVS
Michigan CVS
CALvotes
Humboldt
CA Exit
CA CVS