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1 | http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx | 2016 4-way ELECTION MODEL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR858.html | Poll | 10 | Model | (before undecided allocation) | Ipsos/Reuters | IBD/Tipp | Clinton% Dem | Trmp%Rep | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | 1 | Pct | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | 2 | Pct | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | 88.44% | 87.78% | |||||||||||||||
4 | Ind | 40.0% | 33.8% | 43.6% | 8.0% | 5% | Ind | 16.0% | 8% | 21% | 29% | 15% | 27.0% | Ind | 37.0% | 4% | 30% | 47% | 17% | 2.0% | 81% | 82% | 21 | 29 | ||||||||||
5 | Party-ID | 1 | 1=Gallup | 2=9-polls | 3=Other | Turnout | Dem | 32.0% | 88.4% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 1% | Dem | 45.0% | 3% | 81% | 7% | 4% | 5.0% | Dem | 34.0% | 1% | 90% | 5% | 1% | 3.0% | 85% | 88% | 30 | 47 | ||||
6 | 40% | Ind | 40% | 28.8% | 43% | 100% | Rep | 28.0% | 5.0% | 87.8% | 3.0% | 1% | Rep | 38.0% | 1% | 6% | 82% | 5% | 6.0% | Rep | 29.0% | 1% | 4% | 89% | 5% | 1.0% | 89% | 87% | 30 | 42 | ||||
7 | 32% | Dem | 32% | 38.7% | 30% | 100% | Calc | 94.4% | 43.2% | 43.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | Calc | 99.0% | 3.0% | 42.1% | 39.0% | 6.1% | 9.8% | Calc | 100.0% | 2.1% | 42.9% | 44.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 90% | 90% | 37 | 42 | ||||
8 | 28% | Rep | 28% | 31.9% | 27% | 100% | Votes | 136,216 | 58,865 | 59,820 | 6,380 | 3,546 | Poll | 90% | 3.0% | 42% | 39.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | Poll | 98% | 2.0% | 43.0% | 45% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 86% | 91% | 39 | 44 | ||||
9 | EVote | 538 | 232 | 306 | 0 | 0 | GallupID | 85.9% | 4.4% | 36.0% | 36.8% | 8.7% | 14.1% | GallupID | 98.0% | 2.2% | 41.9% | 45.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 90% | 89% | 43 | 44 | ||||||||||
10 | Undecided to Trump | 75% | Total | 100.0% | 45.8% | 46.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3 | Rasmussen | 4 | Quinnipiac | 90% | 81% | 40 | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||
11 | Total | MoE | 2.5% | True Vote | 100.0% | 44.3% | 48.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | Ind | 32% | 5% | 30% | 42% | 9% | 14.0% | Ind | 26% | 2% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 11.0% | 93% | 89% | 32 | 43 | |||||||
12 | Poll | MoE | 3.0% | Total | 136,175 | 60,303 | 65,997 | 6,470 | 3,405 | Dem | 40% | 1% | 85% | 12% | 1% | 1.0% | Dem | 40% | 1% | 90% | 4% | 3% | 2.0% | 92% | 93% | 32 | 52 | |||||||
13 | Rep | 28% | 0% | 5% | 88% | 3% | 4.0% | Rep | 34% | 1% | 4% | 81% | 11% | 3.0% | 33.78 | 43.56 | ||||||||||||||||||
14 | REPORTED | Party-ID | Poll | Electoral Vote | Undecided allocated | Trump | Undecided | Calc | 100% | 2.0% | 45.0% | 42.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | Calc | 100% | 1.3% | 47.0% | 40.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | |||||||||||||
15 | POLLS | Ind | Dem | Rep | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Undecided | Clinton | Trump | Win Prob | Win Prob | Poll | 94% | 2.0% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | Poll | 95.0% | 1.0% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | |||||||
16 | 1 | Ipsos | 16% | 45% | 38% | 42.0% | 39.0% | 298 | 240 | 10.0% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 11.3% | 76.4% | GallupID | 93.0% | 2.3% | 40.6% | 45.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | GallupID | 94.1% | 1.4% | 44.7% | 40.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | ||||||
17 | 2 | IBD | 37% | 34% | 29% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 202 | 336 | 2.0% | 43.5% | 46.5% | 77.1% | 86.2% | 5 | Fox News | 6 | CNN | 42 | 39 | ||||||||||||||
18 | 3 | Rasmussen | 32% | 40% | 28% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 313 | 225 | 6.0% | 46.5% | 47.5% | 22.9% | 63.6% | Ind | 19% | 4% | 39% | 44% | 11% | 2.0% | Ind | 43% | 4% | 43% | 44% | 6% | 3.0% | 43 | 45 | ||||
19 | 4 | Quinnipiac | 26% | 40% | 34% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 378 | 160 | 5.0% | 48.3% | 43.8% | 0.4% | 5.5% | Dem | 43% | 2% | 89% | 6% | 2% | 1.0% | Dem | 31% | 1% | 93% | 6% | 0% | 0.0% | 45 | 43 | ||||
20 | 5 | Fox News | 19% | 43% | 38% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 317 | 221 | 1.0% | 48.3% | 44.8% | 7.8% | 10.9% | Rep | 38% | 1% | 6% | 87% | 5% | 1.0% | Rep | 26% | 0% | 6% | 89% | 2% | 3.0% | 47 | 40 | ||||
21 | 6 | CNN | 43% | 31% | 26% | 49.0% | 44.0% | 362 | 176 | 2.0% | 49.5% | 45.5% | 4.0% | 8.4% | Calc | 100% | 2.0% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 4.9% | 1.2% | Calc | 100% | 2.0% | 48.9% | 43.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 48 | 44 | ||||
22 | 7 | ABC | 29% | 37% | 29% | 47.0% | 45.0% | 317 | 221 | 2.0% | 47.5% | 46.5% | 23.9% | 36.4% | Poll | 99% | 2.0% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% | Poll | 98% | 2.0% | 49.0% | 44.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 49 | 44 | ||||
23 | 8 | Gravis | 27% | 40% | 33% | 47.0% | 45.0% | 294 | 244 | 4.0% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 23.9% | 50.0% | GallupID | 98.6% | 2.5% | 45.8% | 43.9% | 6.4% | 1.4% | GallupID | 98.0% | 1.9% | 48.6% | 44.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 47 | 45 | ||||
24 | 9 | LA Times | 30% | 38% | 32% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 202 | 336 | 0.0% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 85.9% | 85.9% | 7 | ABC | 8 | Gravis | 47 | 45 | ||||||||||||||
25 | Average | 28.8% | 38.7% | 31.9% | 45.8% | 43.6% | 298 | 240 | 4.7% | 46.7% | 46.2% | 16.5% | 42.6% | Ind | 29% | 4% | 40% | 49% | 7% | 0.0% | Ind | 27% | 2% | 32% | 43% | 3% | 20.0% | 44 | 47 | |||||
26 | Independents% | Adj Poll (Gallup) | Electoral Vote | Undecided allocated | Trump | Undecided | Dem | 37% | 2% | 90% | 7% | 0% | 1.0% | Dem | 40% | 1% | 92% | 7% | 0% | 0.0% | 45.78 | 43.56 | ||||||||||||
27 | Clinton | Trump | Diff | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Undecided | Clinton | Trump | Win Prob | Win Prob | Rep | 29% | 0% | 7% | 90% | 2% | 1.0% | Rep | 33% | 0% | 5% | 93% | 2% | 0.0% | ||||||||
28 | 1 | Ipsos | 21% | 29% | 8% | 36.0% | 36.8% | 239 | 299 | 14.1% | 39.5% | 47.4% | 64.0% | 99.8% | Calc | 95% | 1.9% | 46.9% | 42.9% | 2.6% | 5.7% | Calc | 100% | 0.9% | 47.1% | 45.1% | 1.5% | 5.4% | ||||||
29 | 2 | IBD | 30% | 47% | 17% | 41.9% | 45.3% | 202 | 336 | 2.0% | 42.4% | 46.9% | 89.9% | 94.7% | Poll | 98% | 2.0% | 47.0% | 45.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | Poll | 96% | 1.0% | 47.0% | 45.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | ||||||
30 | 3 | Rasmussen | 30% | 42% | 12% | 40.6% | 45.3% | 167 | 371 | 7.0% | 42.4% | 50.6% | 96.2% | 99.8% | GallupID | 99.4% | 2.2% | 46.8% | 47.0% | 3.4% | 0.6% | GallupID | 92.0% | 1.1% | 43.6% | 45.5% | 1.8% | 8.0% | ||||||
31 | 4 | Quinnipiac | 37% | 42% | 5% | 44.7% | 40.8% | 335 | 203 | 5.9% | 46.2% | 45.2% | 6.5% | 35.8% | 9 | Est. | LA Times | http://cesrusc.org/election/ | 10 | Model | ||||||||||||||
32 | 5 | Fox News | 39% | 44% | 5% | 45.8% | 43.9% | 298 | 240 | 1.4% | 46.1% | 44.9% | 24.7% | 33.6% | Ind | 30% | 5% | 32% | 52% | 10% | 1.0% | Ind | 40.0% | 5% | 33.8% | 43.6% | 8% | 9.7% | ||||||
33 | 6 | CNN | 43% | 44% | 1% | 48.6% | 44.4% | 335 | 203 | 2.0% | 49.2% | 46.0% | 7.0% | 13.7% | Dem | 38% | 1% | 86% | 6% | 2% | 5.0% | Dem | 32.0% | 1% | 88.4% | 6% | 2% | 2.6% | 89% | 6% | ||||
34 | 7 | ABC | 40% | 49% | 9% | 46.8% | 47.0% | 249 | 289 | 0.6% | 46.9% | 47.5% | 53.9% | 58.0% | Rep | 32% | 0% | 5% | 91% | 4% | 0.0% | Rep | 28.0% | 1% | 5% | 87.8% | 3% | 3.2% | 5% | 89% | ||||
35 | 8 | Gravis | 32% | 43% | 11% | 43.6% | 45.5% | 216 | 322 | 8.0% | 45.6% | 51.5% | 75.0% | 97.5% | Calc | 100% | 1.9% | 43.9% | 47.0% | 5.0% | 2.2% | Calc | 100% | 2.6% | 43.2% | 43.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | ||||||
36 | 9 | LA Times | 32% | 52% | 20% | 41.7% | 48.2% | 85 | 453 | 4.6% | 42.9% | 51.6% | 99.1% | 99.9% | Poll | 100% | 2.0% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | PollAvg | 95.3% | 2.0% | 45.8% | 43.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | ||||||
37 | Average | 33.8% | 43.6% | 9.8% | 43.3% | 44.1% | 236 | 302 | 5.1% | 44.6% | 47.9% | 92.3% | 93.0% | GallupID | 98% | 2.3% | 41.7% | 48.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | GallupID | 100.0% | 2.6% | 44.3% | 48.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% | |||||||
38 | Model EV | 232 | 306 | After UVA | 44.6% | 48.1% | 93.0% | 100.0% | True Vote | 100.0% | 2.5% | 44.6% | 48.1% | 4.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Expected EV | 242.1 | 295.9 | Model EV | 187 | 351 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 2012 | 2016 | Avg | 42.2% | 44.9% | SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Party ID and turnout | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 2016 | 40.3% | 35.4% | 24.3% | 31.8% | 28.2% | 40.1% | Wtd Avg | 2.6% | 43.2% | 43.9% | 4.7% | Vote(000) | Model | Electoral Vote | Ind | 40.0% | Dem | 32.0% | Rep | 28.0% | |||||||||||||
42 | ElecVote | Vote | Dem | Rep | Ind | Dem | Rep | Ind | Ind2pty% | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Turnout | 100% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||
43 | 538 | 136,216 | 40.5% | 35.2% | 24.2% | 32.0% | 28.0% | 40.0% | 55.6% | 2.6% | 43.2% | 43.9% | 4.7% | 3,546 | 58,865 | 59,820 | 6,380 | 0 | 232 | 306 | 0 | 94.42% | Trump | % Rep | ||||||||||
44 | AK | 3 | 319 | 12.8% | 26.7% | 60.5% | 10.1% | 21.2% | 68.7% | 87.2% | 3.7% | 33.2% | 49.1% | 6.3% | 12 | 106 | 157 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 92.42% | Trump | 83.8% | 85.8% | 87.8% | 89.8% | 91.8% | |||||
45 | AL | 9 | 2,123 | 35.0% | 49.0% | 16.0% | 27.6% | 39.0% | 33.4% | 54.7% | 2.3% | 37.7% | 50.4% | 4.4% | 50 | 800 | 1,070 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 94.81% | % Ind | Trump | |||||||||
46 | AR | 6 | 1,131 | 37.0% | 44.0% | 19.0% | 29.2% | 35.0% | 35.8% | 55.1% | 2.4% | 39.7% | 48.1% | 4.5% | 28 | 449 | 543 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 94.66% | 47.6% | 47.0% | 47.6% | 48.2% | 48.8% | 49.4% | |||||
47 | AZ | 11 | 2,573 | 28.9% | 34.4% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 27.3% | 49.8% | 68.6% | 3.0% | 38.4% | 47.1% | 5.3% | 77 | 987 | 1,212 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 93.72% | 43.6% | 45.3% | 45.9% | 46.5% | 47.1% | 47.7% | |||||
48 | CA | 55 | 14,182 | 43.3% | 28.1% | 28.6% | 34.2% | 22.3% | 43.5% | 56.0% | 2.7% | 46.0% | 40.6% | 4.8% | 388 | 6,528 | 5,758 | 685 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 94.20% | 39.6% | 43.6% | 44.2% | 44.8% | 45.4% | 46.0% | |||||
49 | CO | 9 | 2,780 | 30.9% | 32.9% | 36.2% | 24.4% | 26.2% | 49.5% | 67.0% | 3.0% | 39.6% | 46.0% | 5.2% | 83 | 1,100 | 1,278 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 93.75% | Clinton | ||||||||||
50 | CT | 7 | 1,645 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 42.8% | 28.7% | 16.5% | 54.7% | 65.6% | 3.2% | 44.7% | 40.1% | 5.4% | 52 | 736 | 659 | 90 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 93.44% | 47.6% | 45.3% | 44.7% | 44.1% | 43.5% | 42.9% | |||||
51 | DC | 3 | 313 | 80.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 63.1% | 8.0% | 28.9% | 31.4% | 2.2% | 66.0% | 23.4% | 3.8% | 7 | 206 | 73 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 95.34% | 43.6% | 47.0% | 46.4% | 45.8% | 45.2% | 44.6% | |||||
52 | DE | 3 | 442 | 47.5% | 28.0% | 24.5% | 37.5% | 22.3% | 40.2% | 51.8% | 2.6% | 47.9% | 39.3% | 4.6% | 12 | 211 | 174 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 94.43% | 39.6% | 48.7% | 48.1% | 47.5% | 46.9% | 46.3% | |||||
53 | FL | 29 | 9,420 | 38.8% | 35.0% | 26.2% | 30.6% | 27.8% | 41.5% | 57.6% | 2.7% | 42.5% | 44.4% | 4.8% | 251 | 4,005 | 4,179 | 449 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 94.30% | Vote Share Margin | ||||||||||
54 | GA | 16 | 4,115 | 39.0% | 43.0% | 18.0% | 30.8% | 34.2% | 35.0% | 53.2% | 2.4% | 40.8% | 47.1% | 4.4% | 99 | 1,677 | 1,939 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 94.73% | 47.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | |||||
55 | HI | 4 | 438 | 49.0% | 35.0% | 16.0% | 38.7% | 27.8% | 33.5% | 46.4% | 2.3% | 46.9% | 41.3% | 4.3% | 10 | 205 | 181 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 94.88% | 43.6% | -1.6% | -0.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | |||||
56 | IA | 6 | 1,566 | 31.1% | 32.0% | 36.9% | 24.5% | 25.4% | 50.0% | 67.1% | 3.0% | 39.9% | 45.6% | 5.3% | 47 | 624 | 714 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 93.72% | 39.6% | -5.0% | -3.8% | -2.6% | -1.5% | -0.3% | |||||
57 | ID | 4 | 690 | 27.0% | 52.0% | 21.0% | 21.3% | 41.3% | 37.3% | 63.7% | 2.5% | 33.5% | 53.8% | 4.7% | 17 | 231 | 372 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 94.51% | Vote Margin (000) | ||||||||||
58 | IL | 20 | 5,536 | 47.0% | 35.0% | 18.0% | 37.1% | 27.8% | 35.1% | 48.6% | 2.4% | 46.0% | 41.9% | 4.4% | 133 | 2,549 | 2,321 | 243 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 94.76% | 47.6% | 2,405 | 4,020 | 5,636 | 7,252 | 8,868 | |||||
59 | IN | 11 | 2,741 | 37.0% | 44.0% | 19.0% | 29.2% | 35.0% | 35.8% | 55.1% | 2.4% | 39.7% | 48.1% | 4.5% | 67 | 1,087 | 1,317 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 94.66% | 43.6% | -2,212 | -596 | 1,020 | 2,635 | 4,251 | |||||
60 | KS | 6 | 1,184 | 24.7% | 44.1% | 31.2% | 19.5% | 35.1% | 45.4% | 70.0% | 2.8% | 34.3% | 51.7% | 5.1% | 33 | 407 | 613 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 93.98% | 39.6% | -6,829 | -5,213 | -3,597 | -1,981 | -365 | |||||
61 | KY | 8 | 1,924 | 53.4% | 38.8% | 7.8% | 42.1% | 30.8% | 27.0% | 39.1% | 2.1% | 47.9% | 41.4% | 3.9% | 40 | 922 | 796 | 76 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 95.32% | |||||||||||
62 | LA | 8 | 2,029 | 27.1% | 27.7% | 45.2% | 21.4% | 22.0% | 56.6% | 72.6% | 3.3% | 39.1% | 45.3% | 5.6% | 66 | 794 | 918 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 93.27% | |||||||||||
63 | MA | 11 | 3,325 | 35.3% | 10.9% | 53.8% | 27.9% | 8.7% | 63.5% | 69.5% | 3.5% | 46.5% | 36.9% | 5.9% | 118 | 1,547 | 1,228 | 196 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 92.87% | |||||||||||
64 | MD | 10 | 2,781 | 54.9% | 25.7% | 19.4% | 43.3% | 20.4% | 36.2% | 45.5% | 2.4% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 4.4% | 68 | 1,435 | 1,010 | 122 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 94.73% | |||||||||||
65 | ME | 4 | 748 | 31.9% | 27.1% | 41.0% | 25.2% | 21.5% | 53.3% | 67.9% | 3.1% | 41.3% | 43.6% | 5.4% | 23 | 309 | 326 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 93.51% | 136,216 | 58,865 | 59,820 | ||||||||
66 | MI | 16 | 4,799 | 44.0% | 37.0% | 19.0% | 34.7% | 29.4% | 35.9% | 50.8% | 2.4% | 44.3% | 43.5% | 4.4% | 117 | 2,126 | 2,089 | 213 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 94.70% | 12,286 | 6,528 | 5,758 | CA | |||||||
67 | MN | 10 | 2,945 | 44.0% | 39.0% | 17.0% | 34.7% | 31.0% | 34.3% | 49.7% | 2.4% | 43.8% | 44.2% | 4.4% | 70 | 1,291 | 1,302 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 94.80% | 6,481 | 3,699 | 2,782 | NY | |||||||
68 | MO | 10 | 2,809 | 39.0% | 44.0% | 17.0% | 30.8% | 35.0% | 34.2% | 52.7% | 2.4% | 40.5% | 47.5% | 4.4% | 67 | 1,139 | 1,333 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 94.78% | 117,449 | 48,638 | 51,281 | NET | |||||||
69 | MS | 6 | 1,209 | 38.0% | 46.0% | 16.0% | 30.0% | 36.6% | 33.4% | 52.7% | 2.3% | 39.6% | 48.5% | 4.4% | 28 | 479 | 586 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 94.82% | 41.41% | 43.66% | |||||||||
70 | MT | 3 | 497 | 33.0% | 51.0% | 16.0% | 26.0% | 40.5% | 33.4% | 56.2% | 2.3% | 36.3% | 51.7% | 4.4% | 12 | 181 | 257 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 94.80% | |||||||||||
71 | NC | 15 | 4,742 | 41.7% | 30.4% | 27.9% | 32.9% | 24.2% | 42.9% | 56.6% | 2.7% | 44.8% | 41.9% | 4.8% | 129 | 2,125 | 1,986 | 228 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 94.23% | |||||||||||
72 | ND | 3 | 344 | 36.0% | 47.0% | 17.0% | 28.4% | 37.4% | 34.2% | 54.6% | 2.4% | 38.6% | 49.4% | 4.4% | 8 | 133 | 170 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 94.76% | |||||||||||
73 | NE | 5 | 844 | 30.9% | 48.3% | 20.8% | 24.4% | 38.4% | 37.2% | 60.4% | 2.5% | 36.1% | 51.4% | 4.6% | 21 | 304 | 434 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 94.54% | |||||||||||
74 | NH | 4 | 742 | 27.2% | 30.1% | 42.7% | 21.5% | 23.9% | 54.6% | 71.8% | 3.2% | 38.6% | 46.1% | 5.5% | 24 | 287 | 342 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 93.40% | |||||||||||
75 | NJ | 14 | 3,907 | 32.7% | 19.7% | 47.6% | 25.8% | 15.7% | 58.5% | 69.4% | 3.3% | 43.4% | 40.8% | 5.7% | 131 | 1,695 | 1,594 | 221 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 93.18% | |||||||||||
76 | NM | 5 | 798 | 46.6% | 31.2% | 22.2% | 36.8% | 24.8% | 38.4% | 51.1% | 2.5% | 46.7% | 40.7% | 4.6% | 20 | 373 | 325 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 94.55% | |||||||||||
77 | NV | 6 | 1,125 | 39.7% | 34.6% | 25.7% | 31.3% | 27.5% | 41.2% | 56.8% | 2.6% | 43.0% | 44.0% | 4.7% | 30 | 484 | 495 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 94.33% | |||||||||||
78 | NY | 29 | 7,455 | 49.4% | 23.9% | 26.7% | 39.0% | 19.0% | 42.0% | 51.9% | 2.7% | 49.6% | 37.3% | 4.7% | 200 | 3,699 | 2,782 | 351 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 94.33% | |||||||||||
79 | OH | 18 | 5,496 | 41.0% | 42.0% | 17.0% | 32.4% | 33.4% | 34.2% | 51.4% | 2.4% | 41.9% | 46.2% | 4.4% | 130 | 2,301 | 2,538 | 241 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 94.79% | |||||||||||
80 | OK | 7 | 1,453 | 43.7% | 43.6% | 12.7% | 34.5% | 34.7% | 30.8% | 47.2% | 2.2% | 42.7% | 45.9% | 4.2% | 32 | 620 | 667 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 95.02% | |||||||||||
81 | OR | 7 | 2,001 | 37.8% | 29.9% | 32.3% | 29.8% | 23.8% | 46.4% | 60.9% | 2.9% | 43.2% | 43.5% | 5.0% | 57 | 865 | 871 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 94.62% | |||||||||||
82 | PA | 20 | 6,115 | 49.5% | 36.7% | 13.8% | 39.1% | 29.2% | 31.8% | 44.8% | 2.3% | 46.7% | 41.8% | 4.2% | 139 | 2,858 | 2,555 | 257 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 94.99% | |||||||||||
83 | RI | 4 | 414 | 41.5% | 10.9% | 47.6% | 32.8% | 8.7% | 58.6% | 64.1% | 3.3% | 49.2% | 35.1% | 5.6% | 14 | 204 | 145 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 93.22% | |||||||||||
84 | SC | 9 | 2,103 | 39.0% | 44.0% | 17.0% | 30.8% | 35.0% | 34.2% | 52.7% | 2.4% | 40.5% | 47.5% | 4.4% | 50 | 853 | 998 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 94.78% | |||||||||||
85 | SD | 3 | 370 | 33.8% | 46.2% | 20.0% | 26.7% | 36.7% | 36.6% | 57.8% | 2.5% | 37.8% | 49.8% | 4.6% | 9 | 140 | 184 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 94.60% | |||||||||||
86 | TN | 11 | 2,508 | 35.0% | 47.0% | 18.0% | 27.6% | 37.4% | 35.0% | 55.9% | 2.4% | 38.1% | 49.7% | 4.5% | 60 | 956 | 1,247 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 94.71% | |||||||||||
87 | TX | 38 | 8,969 | 37.0% | 41.0% | 22.0% | 29.2% | 32.6% | 38.2% | 56.7% | 2.5% | 40.4% | 47.0% | 4.6% | 227 | 3,620 | 4,216 | 414 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 94.51% | |||||||||||
88 | UT | 6 | 1,131 | 26.0% | 59.0% | 15.0% | 20.5% | 46.9% | 32.6% | 61.3% | 2.3% | 31.5% | 56.6% | 4.4% | 26 | 356 | 640 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 94.82% | |||||||||||
89 | VA | 13 | 3,983 | 40.0% | 42.0% | 18.0% | 31.6% | 33.4% | 35.0% | 52.6% | 2.4% | 41.4% | 46.5% | 4.4% | 96 | 1,650 | 1,851 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 94.73% | |||||||||||
90 | VT | 3 | 320 | 47.0% | 31.0% | 22.0% | 37.1% | 24.6% | 38.3% | 50.8% | 2.5% | 47.0% | 40.5% | 4.5% | 8 | 151 | 130 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 94.56% | |||||||||||
91 | WA | 12 | 3,184 | 45.0% | 45.0% | 10.0% | 35.5% | 35.8% | 28.7% | 44.7% | 2.1% | 42.9% | 46.0% | 4.1% | 68 | 1,366 | 1,466 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 95.16% | |||||||||||
92 | WI | 10 | 2,976 | 43.0% | 41.0% | 16.0% | 33.9% | 32.6% | 33.5% | 49.6% | 2.3% | 43.0% | 45.2% | 4.3% | 70 | 1,278 | 1,346 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 94.85% | |||||||||||
93 | WV | 5 | 713 | 49.4% | 28.9% | 21.7% | 39.0% | 23.0% | 38.0% | 49.4% | 2.5% | 48.5% | 39.1% | 4.5% | 18 | 346 | 279 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 94.59% | |||||||||||
94 | WY | 3 | 256 | 19.8% | 66.7% | 13.5% | 15.6% | 53.0% | 31.3% | 66.7% | 2.3% | 27.1% | 61.1% | 4.4% | 6 | 69 | 156 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 94.86% | |||||||||||
95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | 2012 | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Ind | Dem | Rep | Clinton | Trump | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | Obama | 48% | 5% | 75% | 10% | 10% | Nov04 | 27 | 35 | 38 | Poll | 45.8% | 43.6% | 2016 ELECTION MODEL | ||||||||||||||||||||
98 | Romney | 40% | 3% | 5% | 85% | 7% | Nov08 | 37 | 33 | 28 | Undecided | 46.7% | 46.2% | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045 | ||||||||||||||||||||
99 | New | 12% | 10% | 25% | 45% | 20% | Nov12 | 33 | 35 | 30 | Gallup | 43.3% | 44.1% | 9 POLL SUMMARY | Prob | |||||||||||||||||||
100 | Total | 100% | 4.80% | 41.00% | 44.20% | 10.00% | July16 | 42 | 28 | 28 | Undecided | 44.6% | 48.1% | EVote | Trump | WinProb |
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