2016 Presidential Election Model
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1
INPUT IN GREY CELLS
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/10/13/trump-2016-landslide-do-the-math/
CNN exit-polls
Gallup national party affiliation trend
2
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/did-trump-actually-win-by-13-million-votes/
Rand Polling Methodology
Gallup: GOP-maintains edge state party affiliation
3
Shares1PartyID (1-4)4
https://sarmaticusblog.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/deux-ex-machina-presidential-election-electoral-map-the-forecast/
RCP 2016 presidential election
Political party strength inU.S._states
4
NEP1State9 PollsElecDayTrump
2016 ELECTION MODEL - REVISION 1
Pre-election Polls
Party-ID code=1 (Model). else actual Poll
5
Pre-elect2Gallup1
Pre-elec
GallupNEP
Adjusted
NEP
NEP shares
Party-ID
Ipsos/Reuters
IBD/Tipp
6
Turnout1234SharesVotesParty-IDClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther PollClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther PollClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherClinton% DemClinton% RepClinton% IndTrump%DemTrump%RepTrump% Ind
Pre-Elect Poll
Pre-elec Calc
7
Dem100%44.1%38.7%32%36%49,18636.0%90.7%7.8%0.0%1.5%0.0%Dem45.0%84%7%3%2%4.0%Dem34.0%86%7%0%3%4.0%88.22%6.56%30.89%7.11%86.67%43.44%ClintonTrumpClintonTrump
8
Rep100%42.4%31.2%28%33%45,08733.0%8.0%88.0%4.0%0.0%0.0%Rep32.0%5%86%3%2%4.0%Rep29.0%6%85%5%0%4.0%Ipsos84%5%11%7%86%36%42.0%39.0%44.1%39.2%
9
Ind100%13.6%30.1%40%31%42,35531.0%42.0%46.0%6.0%2.0%4.0%Ind23.0%11%36%15%13%25.0%Ind37.0%31%48%16%3%2.0%IBD86%6%31%7%85%48%43.0%45.0%43.1%45.0%
10
Enter code 1-4 for Party-ID
GallupCurCalc100.0%48.3%46.1%3.18%1.16%1.24%Calc100.0%41.9%39.0%5.8%4.5%8.8%Calc100.0%42.5%44.8%7.4%2.1%3.3%Rasmussen87%5%28%8%87%48%45.0%43.0%45.2%42.9%
11
Enter code 1 for NEP shares; code 2 for Pre--election shares
31%32%Votes136,62866,00862,9964,3451,5851,694Poll100.0%42.0%39.0%5.0%4.0%10.0%Poll100.0%43.0%45.0%8.0%2.0%2.0%Quinnipiac90%7%33%4%81%43%47.0%40.0%46.4%40.3%
12
Enter turnout as a % of Party-ID
29%28%Margin-3,011
Post UVA
100.0%45.5%44.2%5.8%4.5%0.0%
Post UVA
100.0%43.8%46.7%7.4%2.1%0.0%Fox News91%8%35%8%89%36%48.0%44.0%47.9%44.1%
13
Enter % adjustments to Trump's recorded vote shares
40%40%Gallup1100.0%49.1%47.0%1.36%0.93%1.69%CNN91%7%42%6%89%44%48.0%44.0%47.8%43.9%
14
According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided votes were flipped
Votes136,62867,02264,1621,8551,2742,315 Poll
Rasmussen
Poll
Quinnipiac
ABC87%8%37%8%85%45%47.0%43.0%47.1%43.1%
15
by Google to Clinton. Gallup Independents (40% of the electorate)
Margin-2,860260278Dem40.0%87%8%1%1%3.0%Dem40.0%90%4%3%1%2.0%Gravis92%5%32%7%88%42%47.0%43.0%47.1%46.5%
16
are a proxy for the NEP 40% who decided after Sept.1.
Recorded
100.0%48.19%46.10%3.29%1.07%1.35%Rep28.0%5%87%5%1%2.0%Rep34.0%7%81%11%1%0.0%LA Times86%8%29%9%90%49%44.0%47.0%44.5%47.0%
17
A 6.5 million flip requires a 10% increase in Trump's 46% NEP share of Votes136,62865,84562,9804,4971,4621,845Ind32.0%28%48%7%4%13.0%Ind26.0%33%43%8%2%14.0%Average88.22%6.56%30.89%7.11%86.67%43.44%45.67%43.11%45.91%43.57%
18
Independents to 56%. As the challenger. Trump would expect a solid majorityMargin-2,865232306Calc100.0%45.2%42.9%4.0%2.0%5.9%Calc100.0%47.0%40.3%7.0%1.3%4.4%
19
of undecided Independents as the de-facto "incumbent" Clinton was unpopular.Poll100.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%2.0%6.0%Poll100.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%1.0%5.0%
20
Trump UVA
60%MoE3.0%3.0%
Post UVA
100.0%47.5%46.5%4.0%2.0%0.00%
Post UVA
100.0%48.7%43.0%7.0%1.3%0.0%
21
Party-ID
Pre-Elect Poll
NEPCalcJohnson/
Post UVA
Pre UVA
Post UVA
22
Pre-election
DemRepIndClintonTrumpClintonTrumpSteinClintonTrump
Trump pop vote win prob
Fox News
CNN%Ind%Dem%Rep
23
1
Ipsos/Reuters
45%32%23%42.0%39.0%41.9%39.0%10.3%45.5%44.2%11%33% PollClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther PollClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
24
2IBD/Tipp34%29%37%43.0%45.0%42.5%44.8%9.5%43.8%46.7%77%86%Dem43.0%91%8%0%0%1.0%Dem31.0%91%6%2%1%0.0%115%8%4%3%1%1%4239
25
3
Rasmussen
40%28%32%45.0%43.0%45.2%42.9%6.0%47.5%46.5%23%36%Rep38.0%8%89%2%1%0.0%Rep26.0%7%89%2%0%2.0%216%3%0%3%5%0%4345
26
4Quinnipiac40%34%26%47.0%40.0%47.0%40.3%8.3%48.7%43.0%0%2%Ind19.0%35%36%22%7%0.0%Ind43.0%42%44%4%4%6.0%34%2%1%1%3%0%4543
27
5Fox News43%38%19%48.0%44.0%48.8%44.1%6.7%49.0%44.4%8%5%Calc100.0%48.8%44.1%4.9%1.7%0.4%Calc100.0%48.1%43.9%2.9%2.0%3.1%48%2%3%1%11%1%4740
28
6CNN31%26%43%48.0%44.0%48.1%43.9%4.9%49.3%45.8%8%11%Poll100.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%Poll100.0%48.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%3.0%511%4%2%2%5%1%4844
29
7
WaPo/ABC
37%29%34%47.0%43.0%47.1%42.9%5.1%49.1%45.9%7%14%
Post UVA
100.0%49.0%44.4%4.9%1.7%0.0%
Post UVA
100.0%49.3%45.8%2.9%2.0%0.0%66%4%0%1%2%0%4844
30
8Gravis40%33%27%47.0%43.0%47.1%43.2%3.9%49.4%46.7%7%17%77%4%0%2%2%0%4743
31
9LA TImes38%32%30%44.0%47.0%43.9%47.0%6.9%44.8%48.3%86%89% Poll
WaPo/ABC
PollGravis83%2%0%1%2%0%4743
32
Average38.67%31.22%30.11%45.7%43.1%45.7%43.1%6.9%47.5%45.7%17.4%27.1%Dem37.0%87%8%0%2%3.0%Dem40.0%92%7%0%1%0.0%910%5%2%1%4%0%44.0047.00
33
Rep29.0%8%85%2%0%5.0%Rep33.0%5%88%5%0%2.0%8.89%3.78%1.33%1.67%3.89%0.33%45.6743.11
34
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Ind34.0%37%45%10%1%7.0%Ind27.0%32%42%5%2%19.0%
35
Increments above current scenario shares:
NEP shares
Calculate Adjusted Party-ID
Calc100.0%47.1%42.9%4.0%1.1%4.9%Calc100.0%47.1%43.2%3.0%0.9%5.8%
36
Party IDDemRepIndDemRepIndTotalPoll100.0%47.0%43.0%4.0%1.0%5.0%Poll100.0%47.0%43.0%3.0%1.0%6.0%
37
NEP36.0%33.0%31.0%
NEP shares
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0%
Post UVA
100.0%49.1%45.9%4.0%1.1%0.0%
Post UVA
100.0%49.4%46.7%3.0%0.9%0.0%
38
Base Case
Trump%7.8%88.0%46.0%
Turnout
100%100%100%Polling Data
39
EVoteClinton 260Trump278
NEP*Turnout
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0% Poll
LA TImes
PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
40
Vote share
48.3%46.1%
Adj NEP Turnout
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0%Dem38.0%86%9%2%1%2.0%Final Results------48.246.13.31.1Clinton +2.1
41
Votes66,00862,996Base
Normalize Adj
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0%Rep32.0%8%90%2%0%0.0%RCP Average11/2 - 11/7----45.542.24.71.9Clinton +3.3
42
Ind30.0%29%49%12%5%5.0%Bloomberg11/4 - 11/6799 LV3.5444142Clinton +3
43
Trump % Republicans
Calc100.0%43.9%46.9%5.0%1.9%2.3%IBD/TIPP11/4 - 11/71026 LV3.1434582Trump +2
44
Trump88.0%89.0%90.0%91.0%92.0%Poll100.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%2.0%0.0%Econ/YouGov11/4 - 11/73677 LV--454152Clinton +4
45
% IndTrump
Post UVA
100.0%44.8%48.3%5.0%1.9%0.0%ABC/Wash Post 11/3 - 11/62220 LV2.5474341Clinton +4
46
54%48.6%48.9%49.2%49.6%49.9%ClintonTrumpClintonTrumpFOX News11/3 - 11/61295 LV2.5484432Clinton +4
47
52%48.0%48.3%48.6%49.0%49.3%PreUVA49.1%47.0%
PostUVA
49.9%47.8%Monmouth11/3 - 11/6748 LV3.6504441Clinton +6
48
50%47.3%47.7%48.0%48.3%48.7%EV260278EV262276Party
National Exit Poll
Gravis11/3 - 11/616639 RV1.0474332Clinton +4
49
48%46.7%47.1%47.4%47.7%48.0%Exp. EV275.3262.7Exp. EV275.5262.5NEPIDClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherNBC/WSJ11/3 - 11/51282 LV2.7444062Clinton +4
50
46%46.1%46.4%46.8%47.1%47.4%
Pop Vote WinProb
23.8%
Pop Vote WinProb
24.2%Dem36%90.7%7.8%0.0%1.5%0.0%Reuters/Ipsos11/2 - 11/62196 LV2.3423963Clinton +3
51
ClintonRep33%8%88%4%0%0.0%Rasmussen Reports11/2 - 11/61500 LV2.5454342Clinton +2
52
54%45.8%45.5%45.2%44.8%44.5%
Summary stats (no fraud assumed)
Ind31%42%46%6%2%4.0%CBS News11/2 - 11/61426 LV3.0454152Clinton +4
53
52%46.5%46.1%45.8%45.5%45.1%
Pre-Elect shares
217321EVoteCalc100.0%48.31%46.11%3.2%1.2%1.2%
54
50%47.1%46.7%46.4%46.1%45.8%
Gallip1 party ID
44.644.1
EVote state calc
All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Polling Data
55
48%47.7%47.4%47.0%46.7%46.4%
Pre-elect party ID
46.243.0Party
9 Pre-election poll average
56
46%48.3%48.0%47.7%47.3%47.0%
Gallup party-ID
43.643.5
National Voter affiliation
9 Poll avg
IDClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther
57
Vote Share Margin
NEP party ID
44.444.4Dem38.7%88.2%7.1%0.0%1.5%3.2%
58
54%2.8%3.4%4.1%4.7%5.4%
Average
44.743.8Rep31.2%6.6%86.7%3.0%0.0%3.8%
59
52%1.5%2.2%2.8%3.5%4.2%Ind30.1%30.9%43.4%8.0%2.0%15.7%
60
50%0.3%0.9%1.6%2.3%2.9%
NEP shares
291247EVoteCalc100.0%45.5%42.9%3.3%1.2%7.1%
61
48%-1.0%-0.3%0.4%1.0%1.7%
Gallip1 party ID
48.545.6
EVote state calc
9PollAvg
100.0%45.7%43.1%3.2%1.2%6.9%
62
46%-2.2%-1.5%-0.9%-0.2%0.4%
Pre-elect party ID
49.944.6
Post UVA
100.0%47.5%45.7%3.3%1.2%2.3%
63
Vote Margin (000)
Gallup party-ID
48.545.8
National Voter affiliation
64
54%3,7654,6675,5696,4717,372
NEP party ID
48.246.1
Recorded vote
Clinton% Dem
Trump%Rep
Clinton% Ind
Trump% Ind
Trump%Dem
Clinton% Rep
65
52%2,0712,9733,8754,7775,678
Average
48.845.588.67%87.44%31.11%42.56%7.22%6.11%
66
50%3771,2792,1813,0823,984
67
48%-1,317-4154861,3882,290NEP
Vote Shares
68
46%-3,011-2,110-1,208-306596
National Party ID
National Pty ID *
NEP shares
69
DemRepIndClintonTrumpJohnsonStein
2012 Party ID
70
36.0%33.0%31.0%48.3%46.1%3.2%1.2%DemRepInd
71
Adjusted
-2.00%2.00%
State Party ID *
NEP shares
38.0%32.0%29.0%
72
2016State42.4%44.5%13.1%Avg47.5%48.5%1.3%0.9%43.5%41.3%15.1%44.51%
73
Recorded
Party-ID
44.1%42.4%13.6%Wtd49.1%47.0%1.4%0.9%
Model Weighted Vote
Model Evote
Recorded
ModelDTChgDTModDTRec44.5%39.9%15.6%Adjustment0.02
74
ElecVote
2016Vote
ClintonTrumpOtherDemRepIndInd/TrumpClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpClinton
Trump
ClintonTrump Margin%Ind%IndDemRepIndActual GallupAdjusted Gallup
75
538136,21648.4%46.1%5.5%44.1%42.4%13.6%28.3%49.1%47.0%1.4%0.9%66,82063,9681,8491,27026027848.4%46.1%49.1%47.0%0.2%44.5%27.8%44.5%39.9%15.6%136,216,67765,719,39862,889,892DemRepDemRep
76
AK331936.6%51.3%12.2%36.9%47.4%15.7%30.6%43.9%51.8%1.6%0.9%14016553AK336.6%51.3%43.9%51.8%-6.8%28.1%24.7%34.3%46.5%19.2%
Final CNN 2016 exit poll (reported)
Alabama2,123,372WTA729,54734.36%1,318,25562.08%AK36.9%45.4%36.9%47.4%
77
AL92,12334.4%62.1%3.6%34.8%53.8%11.4%18.4%40.7%55.3%1.1%0.8%8631,1742416AL934.4%62.1%40.7%55.3%-13.1%13.2%72.6%35.7%50.3%14.0%28 states onlyAlaska318,608WTA116,45436.55%163,38751.28%AL34.8%51.8%34.8%53.8%
78
AR61,13133.7%60.6%5.8%34.3%50.6%15.1%24.9%41.5%54.1%1.5%0.8%469612179AR633.7%60.6%41.5%54.1%-14.3%23.5%66.0%40.8%42.2%17.0%VotesShareDemocratRepubIndTrumpArizona2,573,165WTA1,161,16745.13%1,252,40148.67%AR34.3%48.6%34.3%50.6%
79
AZ112,57345.1%48.7%6.2%41.4%43.7%14.9%30.6%47.3%48.5%1.5%0.9%1,2171,2493824AZ1145.1%48.7%47.3%48.5%-2.3%32.5%33.4%40.5%44.0%15.5%Avg110,70235.29%32.50%32.21%46.73%Arkansas1,130,635WTA380,49433.65%684,87260.57%AZ41.4%41.7%41.4%43.7%
80
CA5514,18261.7%31.6%6.7%50.3%34.0%15.7%49.7%54.9%41.1%1.6%1.1%7,7915,824223152CA5561.7%31.6%54.9%41.1%16.2%45.0%-15.2%48.4%33.5%18.1%Wtd Avg37.46%31.76%30.78%45.20%Californiadl14,181,595WTA8,753,78861.73%554,483,81031.62%CA50.3%32.0%50.3%34.0%
81
CO92,78048.2%43.3%8.6%42.4%45.0%12.6%29.1%47.3%48.7%1.3%0.9%1,3161,3543525CO948.2%43.3%47.3%48.7%6.3%29.4%-13.9%41.3%43.7%15.0%AZ2,57328%32%40%48.7%Coloradodl2,780,220WTA1,338,87048.16%91,202,48443.25%CO42.4%43.0%42.4%45.0%
82
CT71,64554.6%40.9%4.5%51.1%34.8%14.1%34.4%55.1%41.1%1.4%1.0%9066762317CT754.6%40.9%55.1%41.1%-0.3%44.7%43.5%50.9%33.9%15.2%CA14,18247%23%30%31.6%Connecticutdl1,644,920WTA897,57254.57%7673,21540.93%CT51.1%32.8%51.1%34.8%
83
DC331390.5%4.1%5.4%77.4%15.3%7.3%-74.5%22.9%0.7%1.3%2337124DC390.5%4.1%74.5%22.9%34.8%--77.4%13.3%9.3%CO2,78032%24%44%43.3%Delawaredl441,590WTA235,60353.35%3185,12741.92%DC77.4%13.3%77.4%15.3%
84
DE344253.4%41.9%4.7%53.4%36.1%10.5%25.0%55.7%40.8%1.1%1.0%24618054DE353.4%41.9%55.7%40.8%-3.5%44.4%55.4%50.6%34.1%15.3%FL9,42032%33%35%49.0%
District of Columbia
dl312,575WTA282,83090.48%312,7234.07%DE53.4%34.1%53.4%36.1%
85
FL299,42047.8%49.0%3.2%42.5%43.4%14.1%28.8%47.9%48.0%1.4%0.9%4,5164,52113387FL2947.8%49.0%47.9%48.0%-1.1%32.6%39.9%44.7%40.2%15.1%GA4,11534%36%30%50.8%Florida9,420,039WTA4,504,97547.82%4,617,88649.02%FL42.5%41.4%42.5%43.4%
86
GA164,11545.6%50.8%3.6%41.9%45.1%13.0%25.6%47.1%48.9%1.3%0.9%1,9372,0145337GA1645.6%50.8%47.1%48.9%-3.3%29.5%43.6%40.4%45.1%14.5%IA1,56631%34%35%51.1%Georgia4,114,732WTA1,877,96345.64%2,089,10450.77%GA41.9%43.1%41.9%45.1%
87
HI443861.0%29.4%9.6%49.8%33.1%17.1%58.1%55.0%40.9%1.7%1.1%24117975HI461.0%29.4%55.0%40.9%17.4%45.5%-21.4%53.6%29.6%16.8%IL5,53645%30%25%38.8%Hawaiidl437,664WTA266,89160.98%4128,84729.44%HI49.8%31.1%49.8%33.1%
88
IA61,56641.7%51.2%7.1%39.5%47.3%13.2%25.8%45.2%50.8%1.3%0.9%7077952113IA641.7%51.2%45.2%50.8%-3.8%26.3%29.2%44.6%40.3%15.1%IN2,74134%39%27%56.8%Idaho690,255WTA189,76527.49%409,05559.26%IA39.5%45.3%39.5%47.3%
89
ID469027.5%59.3%13.3%29.4%57.6%13.0%21.9%36.7%59.0%1.3%0.7%25440795ID427.5%59.3%36.7%59.0%-9.5%10.5%12.8%28.4%56.0%15.6%KY1,92438%44%18%62.5%Illinoisdl5,536,424WTA3,090,72955.83%202,146,01538.76%ID29.4%55.6%29.4%57.6%
90
IL205,53655.8%38.8%5.4%51.5%35.6%12.9%33.3%55.0%41.3%1.3%1.0%3,0442,2857157IL2055.8%38.8%55.0%41.3%3.4%44.0%24.5%50.4%33.7%15.9%ME74832%27%41%44.9%Indiana2,740,958WTA1,039,12637.91%1,557,28656.82%IL51.5%33.6%51.5%35.6%
91
IN112,74137.9%56.8%5.3%37.2%47.2%15.6%27.5%44.1%51.6%1.6%0.9%1,2081,4154324IN1137.9%56.8%44.1%51.6%-11.4%28.3%61.7%39.9%44.2%15.9%MI4,79940%31%29%47.5%Iowa1,566,031WTA653,66941.74%800,98351.15%IN37.2%45.2%37.2%47.2%
92
KS61,18436.1%56.7%7.3%33.9%52.8%13.3%23.5%40.6%55.2%1.3%0.8%480654169KS636.1%56.7%40.6%55.2%-5.9%18.2%28.9%34.8%51.1%14.1%MN2,94537%35%28%44.9%Kansas1,184,402WTA427,00536.05%671,01856.65%KS33.9%50.8%33.9%52.8%
93
KY81,92432.7%62.5%4.8%39.9%51.1%9.0%14.4%44.1%52.2%0.9%0.8%8481,0051715KY832.7%62.5%44.1%52.2%-21.7%12.4%126.9%44.4%42.9%12.7%MO2,80934%39%27%56.8%Kentucky1,924,149WTA628,85432.68%1,202,97162.52%KY39.9%49.1%39.9%51.1%
94
LA82,02938.5%58.1%3.5%41.1%47.5%11.4%19.6%45.9%50.2%1.1%0.8%9311,0202317LA838.5%58.1%45.9%50.2%-15.3%24.1%92.9%41.7%43.0%15.3%NC4,74235%31%34%49.8%Louisiana2,029,032WTA780,15438.45%1,178,63858.09%LA41.1%45.5%41.1%47.5%
95
MA113,32560.0%32.8%7.2%54.1%31.2%14.7%44.8%57.7%38.4%1.5%1.1%1,9201,2784937MA1160.0%32.8%57.7%38.4%7.9%49.2%11.0%52.4%32.4%15.2%NH74228%28%44%46.6%
Maine (at-large)
747,927CD[e]357,73547.83%2335,59344.87%MA54.1%29.2%54.1%31.2%
96
MD102,78160.3%33.9%5.8%54.5%33.3%12.2%36.0%57.2%39.2%1.2%1.1%1,5921,0893430MD1060.3%33.9%57.2%39.2%8.4%48.1%5.0%55.5%32.4%12.1%NJ3,90743%27%30%41.0%Marylanddl2,781,446WTA1,677,92860.33%10943,16933.91%MD54.5%31.3%54.5%33.3%
97
ME474847.8%44.9%7.3%43.6%41.7%14.7%32.8%49.1%46.9%1.5%0.9%367350117ME1347.8%44.9%49.1%46.9%0.8%35.1%21.6%45.9%37.7%16.4%NM79841%27%32%40.0%
Massachusetts
3,325,046WTA1,995,19660.01%111,090,89332.81%ME43.6%39.7%43.6%41.7%
98
MI164,79947.3%47.5%5.2%43.7%40.8%15.5%32.6%49.4%46.4%1.6%1.0%2,3712,2297446MI1647.3%47.5%49.4%46.4%-3.2%36.4%43.2%48.4%36.1%15.5%NV1,12536%28%36%45.5%Michigan4,799,284WTA2,268,83947.27%2,279,54347.50%MI43.7%38.8%43.7%40.8%
99
MN102,94546.4%44.9%8.6%45.1%42.4%12.5%27.8%49.5%46.6%1.3%0.9%1,4591,3723727MN1046.4%44.9%49.5%46.6%-1.4%33.4%20.2%41.4%46.5%12.1%NY7,45648%26%26%36.7%Minnesota2,944,813WTA1,367,71646.44%101,322,95144.92%MN45.1%40.4%45.1%42.4%
100
MO102,80938.1%56.8%5.1%39.0%49.3%11.7%20.6%44.2%51.8%1.2%0.8%1,2421,4553323MO1038.1%56.8%44.2%51.8%-11.1%21.4%63.8%48.6%37.3%14.1%OH5,49634%37%29%51.7%Mississippi1,209,357WTA485,13140.11%700,71457.94%MO39.0%47.3%39.0%49.3%