KPG Valuation Model.xlsm

	A	B	C	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
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3				Input
4				Actuals
5				Estimates
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7		Modeling Inputs — 5 Years			-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	5-Yr CAGR
8		Revenue Growth Rate (FY26–FY28)	25.0%		FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E
9		Long-Term Revenue Growth Rate (FY29–FY30)	20.0%	Revenue ($m AUD)	83.7	108.1	134.6	168.3	210.3	262.9	315.5	378.6	23.0%
10		EBITDA Margin — Near Term (FY26–FY28)	26.2%	Underlying EBITDA ($m, pre AASB 16)	19.0	30.0	34.4	44.1	55.1	68.9	91.5	109.8	26.1%
11		EBITDA Margin — Long Term (FY29–FY30)	29.0%	EBITDA Margin %	22.7%	27.8%	25.6%	26.2%	26.2%	26.2%	29.0%	29.0%
12		Parent NPATA Margin — Near Term (FY26–FY28)	7.4%	Parent Underlying NPATA ($m)	5.3	8.0	9.1	12.5	15.6	19.5	24.3	29.1	26.2%
13		Parent NPATA Margin — Long Term (FY29–FY30)	7.7%	Parent NPATA Margin %	6.3%	7.4%	6.8%	7.4%	7.4%	7.4%	7.7%	7.7%
14		Average Annual Share Count Growth Rate	0.0%	Shares Outstanding (millions)	45.0	45.0	45.3	45.3	45.3	45.3	45.3	45.3
15				EPS — Underlying NPATA (cents per share)	12.01	17.84	20.19	27.48	34.36	42.94	53.62	64.35	26.1%
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17		Summary Stats
18		Implied Revenue CAGR (FY25→FY30)	23.2%	Discount Rate	10.0%
19		Implied Parent NPATA CAGR (FY25→FY30)	24.0%	Margin of Safety Discount	30.0%
20		Implied Weighted Average Exit Multiple	22.9x	Fair Value (excl. Margin of Safety)	$9.15
21				Implied IRR from Current Price	24.6%
22				Implied IRR from Buy Target	18.1%
23				Buy Target (Margin of Safety)	$6.40
24				Current Stock Price (AUD)	$4.90
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26						Estimated Returns By Entry Price			Start	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30
27						$5.50	21.8%		-$5.50	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
28						$6.00	19.7%		-$6.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
29						$6.50	17.8%		-$6.50	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
30						$7.00	16.1%		-$7.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
31						$7.50	14.5%		-$7.50	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
32						$8.00	13.0%		-$8.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
33						$8.50	11.6%		-$8.50	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
34						$9.00	10.4%		-$9.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	$14.74
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37				Range of Exit P/NPATA Multiple Analysis
38				FY30E P/NPATA Multiple	Weighting	Present Equity Value
39				10x	2.5%	$4.00
40				13x	5.0%	$5.19
41				16x	10.0%	$6.39
42				19x	17.5%	$7.59
43				22x	20.0%	$8.79
44				25x	17.5%	$9.99
45				28x	15.0%	$11.19
46				31x	7.5%	$12.39
47				34x	2.5%	$13.58
48				37x	2.5%	$14.78
49				Weighting Balance:	100.0%	(Adjust multiples and weightings — must balance to 1.0)
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