ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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DRCGuineaMalawiUgandaTogoBurkina FasoChadNigeria
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Priors
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Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace AMF costs20%20%20%20%20%---
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Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs-----25%25%25%
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Considerations that were informally informing priors, with guess of contribution to priors
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Global funding gaps are relatively small (though GiveWell-funded SMC is a large portion of overall SMC)40%40%40%40%40%30%30%30%
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Surveys show major gaps in LLIN coverage-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%---
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AMF as funder of last resort-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%---
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Other funders taking over philanthropically-funded areas in SMC------5%-5%-5%
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Newly added considerations, with percentage point update on priors
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Malaria funding has been increasing0%5%10%10%30%20%15%10%
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Global Fund allocations are more dynamic than we realized15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%
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Other funders are taking AMF and Malaria Consortium in account15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%
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More funding leads to more room for funding-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%
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AMF is relatively thoughtful about crowding out others, but less so for DRC5%-5%-5%-5%-5%---
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DRC may be relatively underfunded-10%0%0%0%0%---
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Nigeria may be relatively underfunded----0%0%0%-15%
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New values
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace AMF costs30%35%40%40%60%---
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs----70%60%55%35%
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