ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
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PostedDays WaitingETAPostedDays WaitingETAPostedDays WaitingETAPostedDays WaitingETAPostedDays WaitingETA
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12/1/20201344/14/20211/1/2021152.66/2/20212/1/2021203.28/23/20213/1/2021246.411/2/20214/1/2021272.2512/29/2021
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12/2/2020134.64/15/20211/2/2021153.26/4/20212/2/20212129/2/20213/2/2021247.711/4/20214/2/2021273.512/31/2021
Areas background in light green are manual adjustments.
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12/3/2020135.24/17/20211/3/2021153.86/5/20212/3/2021213.259/4/20213/3/202124911/7/20214/3/2021274.751/2/2022
This was done to correct the future forecasting.
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12/4/2020135.84/18/20211/4/2021154.46/7/20212/4/2021214.59/6/20213/4/2021250.311/9/20214/4/20212771/6/2022
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12/5/2020136.44/20/20211/5/20211556/9/20212/5/2021215.759/8/20213/5/2021251.611/11/20214/5/2021278.251/8/2022
Note the area appearing in blue is where the exchange has
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12/6/20201374/22/20211/6/2021155.66/10/20212/6/20212179/11/20213/6/2021252.911/13/20214/6/2021279.51/10/2022
frozen after January 21st postings.
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12/7/2020137.64/23/20211/7/2021156.26/12/20212/7/2021218.29/13/20213/7/2021254.211/16/20214/7/2021280.751/12/2022
This was caused by a massive increase of orders on that
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12/8/2020138.24/25/20211/8/2021156.86/13/20212/8/2021219.49/15/20213/8/2021255.511/18/20214/8/20212821/15/2022
date, total addition of 8 million to backlog.
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12/9/2020138.84/26/20211/9/20211486/6/20212/9/2021220.69/17/20213/9/202125311/17/20214/9/2021283.251/17/2022
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12/10/2020139.44/28/20211/10/2021148.66/7/20212/10/2021221.89/19/20213/10/2021254.311/19/20214/10/20212791/14/2022
As of January 22nd, 2022, I calculated the following:
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12/11/20201404/30/20211/11/2021149.26/9/20212/11/20212219/20/20213/11/2021255.611/21/20214/11/2021280.251/16/2022
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12/12/2020140.65/1/20211/12/2021149.86/10/20212/12/2021222.29/22/20213/12/2021256.911/23/20214/12/20212781/15/2022
Taking the range from request 4/16/2021 back to 2/11/2021,
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12/13/2020141.25/3/20211/13/2021150.46/12/20212/13/2021223.49/24/20213/13/2021258.211/26/20214/13/2021279.251/17/2022
a total of 74 days. Then a ratio of the additional time waited,
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12/14/2020141.85/4/20211/14/20211516/14/20212/14/2021224.69/26/20213/14/2021259.511/28/20214/14/2021280.51/19/2022
of 66 days. I came to the current formula of +0.9 days per day
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12/15/2020142.45/6/20211/15/2021151.66/15/20212/15/2021225.89/28/20213/15/2021260.811/30/20214/15/2021281.751/21/2022
added to the wait time.
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12/16/20201455/10/20211/16/2021152.26/17/20212/16/202122710/1/20213/16/2021262.112/3/20214/16/20212791/20/2022
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12/17/2020145.65/11/20211/17/2021152.86/18/20212/17/2021228.210/3/20213/17/2021263.412/5/20214/17/2021279.91/21/2022
The older values of +1.25 has been replaced for the remainder of
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12/18/2020146.25/13/20211/18/2021153.46/20/20212/18/2021229.410/5/20213/18/2021264.712/7/20214/18/2021280.81/23/2022
this sheet and the forecast ahead.
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12/19/2020146.85/14/20211/19/20211566/24/20212/19/2021230.610/7/20213/19/202126612/10/20214/19/2021281.71/25/2022
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12/20/2020147.45/16/20211/20/2021156.66/25/20212/20/2021231.810/9/20213/20/2021267.312/12/20214/20/2021282.61/27/2022
Additional dates beyond April 30th, can be seen in the pages
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12/21/20201485/18/20211/21/20211767/16/20212/21/202123610/15/20213/21/202126312/9/20214/21/2021283.51/29/2022
by clicking on the tabs at the bottom left. As of the 20th of July,
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12/22/2020148.65/19/20211/22/20211827/23/20212/22/2021237.310/17/20213/22/2021264.312/11/20214/22/20212831/30/2022
last year the backlog has been over a 1 year wait period.
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12/23/2020149.25/21/20211/23/20211887/30/20212/23/2021238.610/19/20213/23/202126312/11/20214/23/2021283.91/31/2022
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12/24/2020149.85/22/20211/24/20211898/1/20212/24/2021239.910/21/20213/24/2021264.312/13/20214/24/2021284.82/2/2022
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12/25/2020150.45/24/20211/25/20211928/5/20212/25/2021241.210/24/20213/25/2021265.612/15/20214/25/2021285.72/4/2022
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12/26/20201515/26/20211/26/20211938/7/20212/26/2021242.510/26/20213/26/2021266.912/17/20214/26/2021286.62/6/2022
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12/27/2020151.65/27/20211/27/20211948/9/20212/27/2021243.810/28/20213/27/2021268.212/20/20214/27/20212842/5/2022
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12/28/2020152.25/29/20211/28/20211998/15/20212/28/2021245.110/31/20213/28/2021269.512/22/20214/28/2021284.92/6/2022
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12/29/2020152.85/30/20211/29/2021199.68/16/20213/29/2021270.812/24/20214/29/2021285.82/8/2022
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12/30/2020153.46/1/20211/30/20212028/20/20213/30/2021272.112/27/20214/30/2021286.72/10/2022
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12/31/20201546/3/20211/31/2021202.68/21/20213/31/202127112/27/2021
Older notes
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Notes are located in column Q
This sheet is best viewed in 1080p
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Growth:0.66666666671.6666666671.5518518520.820.4982758621DateRatioChangeComment
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12/1/2020
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12/16/20200.75N/A
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1/9/20210.16-0.59
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1/19/20210.810.65
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2/2/20213.82.99
Extreme Change
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2/6/20211.2-2.6
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2/11/20210.83-0.37
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2/21/20211.450.62
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2/24/20211.25-0.2
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Average1.280.07
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Overall1.24
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As a result from the study above the best possible forcasting
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value to use at present is 1.28. As of 10/23/2021, I have pushed
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all future values to 1.3 (rounding up the value). This should keep
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the forcast more accurate.
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This may appear as a small sample of time, the more incoming
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data poinits, make for a better forecast projection.
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