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Patriot One Technologies Inc. DCF-analysis
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Symbol
PAT.V/PTOTF
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Current price$1,21 CAD
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Shares Out. (M)60M
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Market Cap. (M)$83M CAD
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Fair value (low estimates)$4,92 CAD
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Upside price potential (%)406%
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Valuation Date:10/20/2017
Price per unit: $10.000
Yearly sales projections:
20172018201920202021
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Share Price on Valuation Date:$1,43
Installation fees: $500
Units:300200050001000020000
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Diluted Shares Outstanding:91.904,0
Monthly subscription fees: $50
Intalation fees:1501.000,002.500,005.000,0010.000,00
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Fair price value per share:$4,92
Monthly subscription fees:
1801.200,003.000,006.000,0012.000,00
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Total3302.200,005.500,0011.000,0022.000,00
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Operating Data
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Projected Annual Forecast
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2016A2017P2018P2019P2020P2021P
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Revenue$0,0 $3.330,0 $22.200,0 $55.500,0 $111.000,0 $222.000,0
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Revenue Growth Rate (%)672,0% 250,0% 200,0% 200,0%
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EBITDA$0,0 $1.998,0 $13.320,0 $33.300,0 $66.600,0 $133.200,0
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EBITDA Margin (%)60,0% 60,0% 60,0% 60,0% 60,0%
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EBIT0,0 $1.665,0 $11.100,0 $27.750,0 $55.500,0 $111.000,0
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EBIT Margin (%)50,0% 50,0% 50,0% 50,0% 50,0%
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Depreciation & Amortization $0,0 $186,5 $1.176,6 $2.275,5 $5.217,0 $9.768,0
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D&A as a % of revenue5,6% 5,3% 4,1% 4,7% 4,4%
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Balance Sheet And Other Data
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Projected Annual Forecast
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2016A2017P2018P2019P2020P2021P
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Cash$2.100,0 12.500,0 12.500,0 12.500,0 12.500,0 12.500,0
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Accounts Receivable118,0 129,8 144,1 161,4 182,3 206,0
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Inventories0,0
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Prepaid Expenses44,0 52,6 62,5 72,2 81,6 94,1
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Accounts Payable$356,0 $361,3 $381,2 $415,9 $457,1 $502,3
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Accrued Expenses0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
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Debt0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
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Capital Expenditures0,0 100,0 111,0 124,3 140,5 158,7
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Accounts Receivable Growth (%)10,0% 11,0% 12,0% 13,0% 13,0%
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Inventories Growth (%)1,5% 5,5% 9,1% 9,9% 9,9%
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Prepaid Expenses Growth (%)19,6% 18,7% 15,6% 13,0% 15,3%
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Accounts Payable Growth (%)1,5% 5,5% 9,1% 9,9% 9,9%
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Accrued Expenses Growth (%)10,0% 11,0% 12,0% 13,0% 13,0%
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Capital Expenditures Growth (%)10,0% 11,0% 12,0% 13,0% 13,0%
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Free Cash Flow Buildup
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$mmProjected Annual Forecast
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2016A2017P2018P2019P2020P2021P
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Period12345
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Total Revenues$3.000,0 $20.000,0 $50.000,0 $100.000,0 $200.000,0
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EBITDA1.998,0 13.320,0 33.300,0 66.600,0 $175.000,0
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EBIT$1.665,0 $11.100,0 $27.750,0 $55.500,0 $111.000,0
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Tax rate40,0% 40,0% 40,0% 40,0% 40,0%
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EBIAT$999,0 $6.660,0 $16.650,0 $33.300,0 $66.600,0
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Depreciation & Amortization186,5 1.176,6 2.275,5 5.217,0 9.768,0
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Accounts receivable(11,8)(14,3)(17,3)(21,0)(23,7)
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Inventories0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
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Prepaid expenses(8,6)(9,8)(9,7)(9,4)(12,5)
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Accounts payable5,3 19,9 34,7 41,2 45,3
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Accrued expenses0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
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Capital expenditures100,0 111,0 124,3 140,5 158,7
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Unlevered free cash flows$1.270,4 $7.943,4 $19.057,5 $38.668,3 $76.535,8
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Discount Rate (WACC)15,0%15,0%15,0%15,0%15,0%
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Present value of free cash flows$1.104,7 $6.006,3 $12.530,6 $22.108,7 $38.051,8
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Sum of present values of FCFs$79.802,2
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Terminal Value
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Growth in perpetuity method:
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Long term growth rate4,0%
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WACC15,0%
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Free cash flow (t+1)79.597,2
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Terminal Value723.611,3
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Present Value of Terminal Value$359.762,7
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WACC
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Share Price$1,43
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Diluted Shares Outstanding91.904,0
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Cost of Debt5,2%
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Tax Rate40,0%
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After-tax Cost of Debt3,1%
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Cost of Equity15,0%
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Total Debt ($)$0,0
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Total Equity ($) 131.422,7
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Total Capital$131.422,7
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Debt Weighting0,0%
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Equity Weighting100,0%
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WACC =15,0%
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Enterprise Value to Equity Value