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OwnerSiebe Rozendal
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Email
sieberozendal@gmail.com
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Summary and explanation
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NyZ-FPzv5ridCoWlhs8wDpyVbrh3OiPCSS5p7AW0dQ4/edit?usp=drivesdk
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Main figuresRough number
Actual estimate
Date updatedFormulaCaveats
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Estimated global population with LC > 12 weeks540,000,000544,610,61814/10/2025[UK prevalence per age group] * [amount of people in age group globally - China] for each age groupDemographics not adjusted for newest population growth
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Estimated amount of children under 17 with LC13 million13,050,860May 1st, 2022same as above, for age groups 2-11 and 12-16
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Growth graph
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Long list
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Percentage of working population with LC > 12 weeks
1 in 402.78%May 1st, 2022Prevalence in age groups 25 to 34 and 35 to 49
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Recovery rate11%11%May 1st, 2022AVERAGE of ( 1 - [# people with LC > 12 months] / [# of people with LC > 12 weeks, 9 months earlier] ) This number is likely quite skewed due to changing responses (some intervals had a negative recovery rate - more people became sick over time). Not valid for actual recovery, but useful for forecasting this dataset.
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