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New Incentives – current states of operationNew Incentives – prospective statesNew Incentives – prospective states
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NigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeria
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Main calculationsunittypeOverallBauchiGombeJigawaKaduna - cohort 17KanoKatsinaKebbiSokotoZamfaraAbiaAdamawaAkwa IbomAnambraBayelsaBenueBornoCross RiverDeltaEbonyiEdoEkitiEnuguFCTImoKadunaKogiKwaraLagosNasarawaNigerNiger -
cohorts 32 & 36
Niger -
cohort 34
OgunOndoOsunOyoPlateauRiversTarabaYobe
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from "Main calcs" sheet for visibility)xcashcalc-21.410.819.59.713.317.831.441.532.71.84.11.71.92.73.15.11.52.21.11.61.21.11.51.25.52.22.11.13.47.89.55.52.62.41.21.82.31.66.611.5
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Baseline coverage for the target population
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7
Baseline vaccination coverage for the target population
8
Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the BCG vaccine%supp-55%72%61%63%63%49%39%35%48%91%89%86%84%79%82%65%93%84%99%92%99%99%95%95%77%92%72%94%79%67%62%77%72%75%93%83%88%90%76%65%
9
Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 1st dose of the Penta vaccine%supp-49%67%57%59%58%46%32%27%42%88%86%86%83%78%81%58%93%81%99%92%95%99%91%94%74%86%66%92%72%63%57%75%67%73%91%76%80%90%73%61%
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Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 2nd dose of the Penta vaccine%supp-45%63%51%50%50%42%23%25%33%86%79%82%75%76%75%45%92%76%99%91%94%97%87%93%67%74%64%90%65%52%45%65%58%68%88%64%78%87%67%52%
11
Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 3rd dose of the Penta vaccine%supp-36%50%39%41%38%35%14%18%23%75%70%73%74%70%63%30%75%70%99%83%85%91%80%89%58%63%55%85%54%39%33%50%41%63%82%57%65%78%56%42%
12
Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 1st dose of the PCV vaccine%supp-49%63%56%58%56%44%32%21%43%89%86%84%83%77%79%54%93%79%99%90%96%99%91%94%72%85%64%92%71%61%55%73%65%72%91%75%79%90%71%60%
13
Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 2nd dose of the PCV vaccine%supp-45%60%51%50%48%40%23%20%33%85%79%82%75%75%71%38%92%73%99%86%90%96%87%91%65%72%61%89%63%50%44%64%57%66%83%63%69%85%65%51%
14
Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 3rd dose of the PCV vaccine%supp-36%47%39%41%37%34%14%14%25%67%70%71%74%67%56%31%73%69%99%77%83%91%80%86%57%62%53%80%51%38%32%48%40%61%69%57%61%79%54%41%
15
Baseline proportion of children in the target popullation who receive the 1st dose of the rotavirus vaccine%supp-49%65%57%59%57%45%32%24%42%89%86%85%83%77%80%56%93%80%99%91%95%99%91%94%73%85%65%92%71%62%56%74%66%73%91%75%79%90%72%61%
16
Estimated proportion of children in the target population who receive the 2nd dose of the rotavirus vaccine%supp-45%61%51%50%49%41%23%22%33%86%79%82%75%76%73%42%92%74%99%88%92%96%87%92%66%73%62%89%64%51%44%64%57%67%86%63%73%86%66%51%
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Baseline proportion of children in the target population who receive the 1st dose of the measles vaccine%supp-31%37%56%57%41%44%63%19%46%75%61%72%67%66%68%39%80%73%92%80%95%80%90%75%57%72%64%86%57%55%55%55%56%66%80%61%70%85%65%71%
18
19
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities that could be prevented by each vaccine dose
20
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the BCG vaccine%feed-21%15%25%14%16%22%21%21%26%12%17%11%11%10%14%13%13%13%15%13%16%13%14%13%14%10%11%12%15%15%15%15%11%12%14%9%16%13%14%22%
21
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 1st dose of the Penta vaccine%supp-5%7%6%8%6%7%8%6%6%6%6%7%8%9%6%8%8%7%7%7%6%8%7%7%8%13%8%7%8%7%7%7%8%6%8%9%6%7%6%8%
22
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 2nd dose of the Penta vaccine%supp-8%11%10%12%9%10%12%10%10%9%9%12%13%14%10%13%12%11%11%10%9%13%10%10%12%20%13%11%12%11%11%11%12%9%12%15%10%10%9%12%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 3rd dose of the Penta vaccine%supp-2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%4%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 1st dose of the PCV vaccine%supp-12%14%11%15%14%11%11%11%9%17%15%16%18%13%14%10%16%17%16%18%17%16%17%18%15%13%15%17%15%14%14%14%16%18%15%15%15%17%15%11%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 2nd dose of the PCV vaccine%supp-19%21%18%23%23%17%17%17%14%27%24%26%28%21%22%16%25%26%26%29%27%25%27%29%23%20%23%27%23%21%21%21%25%28%24%24%24%27%24%17%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 3rd dose of the PCV vaccine%supp-3%4%3%4%4%3%3%3%3%5%4%5%5%4%4%3%4%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%4%4%4%5%4%4%4%4%4%5%4%4%4%5%4%3%
27
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 1st dose of the rotavirus vaccine%supp-20%19%14%14%19%18%17%20%20%18%18%13%9%18%21%23%12%13%13%10%12%11%12%11%14%9%13%13%14%18%18%18%15%13%13%12%16%12%19%14%
28
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 2nd dose of the rotavirus vaccine%supp-4%3%2%3%3%3%3%4%3%3%3%2%2%3%4%4%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%3%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%3%2%3%3%
29
Proportion of vaccine-preventable mortalities among people under age 5 that could be prevented by the 1st dose of the measles vaccine%supp-6%5%7%5%3%8%8%6%7%2%3%5%3%6%4%8%5%4%4%4%6%4%4%3%5%5%9%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%6%6%5%4%4%8%
30
31
Baseline vaccination coverage for the target population, aggregated across vaccines
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Proportion of children in the target population who would be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across vaccines%calc-47%62%55%55%53%44%32%25%40%86%82%82%79%76%76%50%91%77%99%88%93%96%89%92%69%79%64%90%68%57%51%68%61%69%87%69%76%87%69%59%
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Proportion of children in the target population who would not be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across vaccines - in year of baseline measurement%calc53%38%45%45%47%56%68%75%60%14%18%18%21%24%24%50%9%23%1%12%7%4%11%8%31%21%36%10%32%43%49%32%39%31%13%31%24%13%31%41%
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Effective year of baseline measurement#supp20222022.52021.520232022.52021.320232021.92021.1202120232021202120212021202120212021202120212021202120212021202320212021202120212024202420242021202120212021202120212022.72023.6
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Counterfactual change in the proportion of unvaccinated children per year in the absence of New Incentives%input-5%----------------------------------------
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Middle year of grant period#input2026
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Proportion of children in the target population who would not be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across vaccines - in middle year of grant period%calc43%32%36%39%39%44%58%61%46%11%15%14%17%19%19%39%7%18%1%9%5%3%8%6%27%17%28%8%25%39%44%28%30%24%10%24%18%10%26%37%
38
Proportion of children in the target population who would be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across vaccines - in middle year of grant period%calc57%68%64%61%61%56%42%39%54%89%85%86%83%81%81%61%93%82%99%91%95%97%92%94%73%83%72%92%75%61%56%72%70%76%90%76%82%90%74%63%
39
40
Vaccine efficacy and coverage for people under age 5, aggregated across vaccines
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42
Vaccine efficacy with universal coverage
43
BCG vaccine efficacy rate with universal coverage%supp72%----------------------------------------
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DTP vaccine efficacy rate with universal coverage (part of the Penta vaccine)%supp71%----------------------------------------
45
Hib vaccine efficacy rate with universal coverage (part of the Penta vaccine)%supp70%----------------------------------------
46
PCV vaccine efficacy rate with universal coverage%supp49%----------------------------------------
47
Rotavirus vaccine efficacy rate with universal coverage%supp39%----------------------------------------
48
Measles vaccine efficacy rate with universal coverage%supp67%----------------------------------------
49
50
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by each vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination
51
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by the BCG vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-16%11%19%11%12%16%16%16%19%8%12%8%8%7%10%10%10%10%11%10%12%10%11%10%11%8%8%9%11%11%11%11%8%9%10%7%11%10%10%17%
52
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by the DTP vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-9%12%12%13%10%12%14%11%12%7%8%12%14%15%9%15%13%11%10%9%7%14%10%9%13%26%15%10%13%12%12%12%13%9%12%17%10%10%9%15%
53
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by the Hib vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-2%3%3%4%3%2%2%2%2%2%3%4%4%3%3%2%4%4%5%5%5%5%5%5%4%3%3%5%3%3%3%3%4%4%4%4%4%5%3%3%
54
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by the PCV vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-36%41%37%46%44%34%34%34%28%50%46%51%56%41%42%31%49%52%50%57%53%51%54%56%46%42%46%53%46%41%41%41%48%55%48%48%46%53%45%34%
55
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by the rotavirus vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-32%30%24%23%29%29%27%32%32%28%28%20%15%29%33%36%20%21%21%17%19%17%19%17%23%16%21%20%23%29%29%29%23%20%21%19%25%19%29%24%
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Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated people under age 5 that are addressable by the measles vaccine, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-5%4%6%4%3%7%7%5%6%2%3%4%3%5%3%6%4%3%3%3%4%4%3%3%4%4%7%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%5%5%4%3%3%7%
57
58
Vaccine efficacy for people under age 5, aggregated across vaccines
59
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among people under age 5, aggregated across vaccines%calc-53%53%55%54%52%54%55%53%55%50%52%53%54%53%51%53%54%53%53%53%54%54%53%53%54%57%54%53%54%53%53%53%53%53%54%54%53%53%52%56%
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61
Vaccine coverage for populations under age 5 represented by GBD 2021, aggregated across doses
62
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the BCG vaccine%supp-47%56%60%74%57%54%61%32%48%86%80%81%80%75%78%62%89%79%95%88%94%94%91%90%74%88%69%90%75%63%63%63%69%71%89%79%83%86%68%72%
63
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the DTP vaccine, aggregated across doses%supp-37%48%55%65%47%46%56%20%36%82%65%79%74%72%72%46%86%73%94%86%89%92%83%89%65%73%61%86%63%50%50%50%57%66%84%64%74%83%63%68%
64
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the Hib vaccine, aggregated across doses%supp-37%48%55%65%47%46%56%20%36%82%65%79%74%72%72%46%86%73%94%86%89%92%83%89%65%73%61%86%63%50%50%50%57%66%84%64%74%83%63%68%
65
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the PCV vaccine, aggregated across doses%supp-37%45%54%63%46%44%55%16%36%80%65%78%74%71%69%41%86%71%94%82%87%92%84%87%63%72%58%85%62%49%49%49%55%64%80%63%68%82%61%66%
66
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the rotavirus vaccine, aggregated across doses%supp-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
67
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the measles vaccine%supp-29%35%53%54%39%42%60%18%44%71%58%69%64%63%65%37%76%70%88%76%90%76%85%72%54%69%61%82%54%52%52%52%53%63%77%58%67%81%62%68%
68
69
Vaccine coverage for populations under age 5 represented by GBD 2021, aggregated across vaccines
70
Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%calc-30%37%47%54%38%37%46%16%32%63%54%66%66%56%53%33%74%62%80%73%77%80%73%76%54%66%51%73%53%41%41%41%47%56%70%56%59%71%49%57%
71
72
Vaccine efficacy and coverage for older age groups, aggregated across vaccines
73
74
Effect of vaccination on disease incidence among 5-14-year-olds
75
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by BCG vaccination among 5-14-year-olds%supp65%----------------------------------------
76
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by DTP vaccination among 5-14-year-olds%supp64%----------------------------------------
77
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by Hib vaccination among 5-14-year-olds%supp63%----------------------------------------
78
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by PCV vaccination among 5-14-year-olds%supp44%----------------------------------------
79
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by rotavirus vaccination among 5-14-year-olds%supp35%----------------------------------------
80
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by measles vaccination among 5-14-year-olds%supp60%----------------------------------------
81
82
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by each vaccine
83
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by the BCG vaccine%supp-22%15%24%13%17%21%20%22%23%11%15%12%12%9%15%15%10%12%14%13%13%14%14%13%13%9%11%13%13%15%15%15%13%12%13%9%15%13%15%22%
84
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by the DTP vaccine%supp-13%16%16%19%14%16%19%17%17%11%11%14%19%19%9%15%10%14%10%12%9%11%11%9%19%33%17%9%14%15%15%15%14%11%11%21%10%12%12%15%
85
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by the Hib vaccine%supp-2%3%2%3%3%2%2%2%2%4%3%4%4%3%3%3%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%3%3%3%4%3%3%3%3%4%4%4%3%4%4%3%2%
86
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by the PCV vaccine%supp-34%41%35%46%48%33%32%32%32%54%49%54%53%40%47%38%57%55%54%57%58%53%60%60%46%39%47%63%50%44%44%44%54%56%56%46%50%57%47%33%
87
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by the rotavirus vaccine%supp-20%17%12%10%13%16%16%16%15%17%16%10%8%22%21%22%13%9%13%9%9%12%7%9%10%10%12%6%13%16%16%16%10%12%10%14%16%8%17%17%
88
Proportion of deaths from vaccine-preventable causes among unvaccinated 5-14-year-olds that are addressable by the measles vaccine%supp-10%7%11%9%6%12%11%11%11%4%5%7%5%8%4%9%5%6%6%5%7%5%4%4%9%6%9%5%6%7%7%7%5%5%6%7%6%5%6%10%
89
90
Vaccine efficacy, aggregated across vaccines
91
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 5-14-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%calc-52%51%54%52%51%53%53%53%53%49%50%50%51%50%49%50%49%51%50%50%50%50%50%50%52%53%51%50%50%51%51%51%51%49%50%51%50%50%50%52%
92
93
Vaccine coverage for 5-14-year-old populations represented by GBD 2021, aggregated across doses
94
Adjustment for lower vaccine coverage among 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates%input-50%----------------------------------------
95
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the BCG vaccine%calc-23%28%30%37%29%27%30%16%24%43%40%41%40%38%39%31%44%40%47%44%47%47%45%45%37%44%34%45%38%32%32%32%34%36%44%39%42%43%34%36%
96
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the DTP vaccine, aggregated across doses%calc-18%24%27%32%23%23%28%10%18%41%32%39%37%36%36%23%43%37%47%43%44%46%42%44%32%37%30%43%31%25%25%25%28%33%42%32%37%41%32%34%
97
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the Hib vaccine, aggregated across doses%calc-18%24%27%32%23%23%28%10%18%41%32%39%37%36%36%23%43%37%47%43%44%46%42%44%32%37%30%43%31%25%25%25%28%33%42%32%37%41%32%34%
98
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the PCV vaccine, aggregated across doses%calc-18%23%27%32%23%22%27%8%18%40%33%39%37%36%34%20%43%36%47%41%43%46%42%44%32%36%29%42%31%25%25%25%27%32%40%32%34%41%30%33%
99
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the rotavirus vaccine, aggregated across doses%calc-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
100
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the measles vaccine%calc-15%17%27%27%19%21%30%9%22%36%29%34%32%32%32%18%38%35%44%38%45%38%43%36%27%34%31%41%27%26%26%26%27%31%38%29%33%40%31%34%