Groger Ranks 2019-20 Midseason Poll (Responses)
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1/5/2020 18:33:39University Lab AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AHunter AMillburn APhillips Academy ASaratoga AAdlai E. Stevenson AMission San Jose ACanyon Crest ABeavercreek A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Stanford Online AGeorgetown Day ARichard Montgomery AWestview AStrake Jesuit ALASA AChattahoochee A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Wayzata AEast Chapel Hill AEd W. Clark AMounds View A
Detroit Catholic Central A
NOTE: this is a resubmission since I made some glaring errors in the last submission. Please disregard any previous submissions. Please also not include this sentence in the final spreadsheet. I mostly mirrored Groger Ranks, with a couple key exceptions. –I included Blair at 3rd since they're looking to be pretty good in the upcoming season, but I feel the loss of Anson keeps them from breaking into top 2. –I was hesitant to include Ithaca cause I want to wait for other tournament stats. –I put Saratoga ahead of Stevenson cause I think their performances on college sets have been impacted by the hard fields (playing Stanford and Berkeley four times at Penn Bowl doesn't do wonders for your Groger score), and plus Jason had a lot of powers on Penn Bowl considering the field strength. –I put Canyon Crest at 10th cause many have said that the team members have had other priorities. –I put Creek ahead of TJ cause I feel like Creek has a stronger base in History which will benefit them at HSNCT –I put SOHS ahead of both GDS and RM, and then put GDS ahead of RM since OHS hasn't played an mACF set as a full team yet. GDS is ahead of RM since I think GDS has a much better chance at PACE due to their high aggressiveness, and plus I like Siff. –I put Westview ahead of both Strake and LASA since I think they haven't had a chance to show their true strength just yet. –I put Mounds View at 24th since I think they will do really well at PACE due to a strong base in History and Fine Arts, and they did really well at WAIT.
Avinash IyerMission San JoseNo
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12/25/2019 20:16:50University Lab AHunter AMiami Valley AAdlai E. Stevenson AMontgomery Blair ACanyon Crest AMillburn APhillips Academy AMission San Jose ASaratoga A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Ithaca ARichard Montgomery ABeavercreek AStrake Jesuit AGeorgetown Day AStanford Online AChattahoochee AWestview ALASA AWayzata AEast Chapel Hill A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
High Tech A
Detroit Catholic Central A
I looked at ranks and then added my own opinions
Also added where I think CCA and Blair will be
Josh RubelGreenhillNo
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12/25/2019 20:49:11University Lab AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AHunter APhillips Academy ARichard Montgomery AAdlai E. Stevenson ASaratoga AGeorgetown Day AMillburn AIthaca AStanford Online ACanyon Crest AMission San Jose AChattahoochee A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Beavercreek AStrake Jesuit ALASA AWestview AWayzata AEd W. Clark AHigh Tech AMounds View AEast Chapel Hill A
stats+the infamous "who would you rather play" test
Dean Ah NowMillburnNo
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12/30/2019 7:19:36University Lab AMontgomery Blair APhillips Academy AHunter AMillburn AMiami Valley AMission San Jose ASaratoga AAdlai E. Stevenson ARichard Montgomery A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Stanford Online AStrake Jesuit AGeorgetown Day ACanyon Crest AWestview AWayzata AMontgomery Blair BIthaca AChattahoochee ABeavercreek ALASA A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Arcadia A
I feel like there are just so many really good teams this year that I can conceivably see someone else ranking any of these teams up to seven spots lower or higher than they currently are, for some reason or another. If I were to rank up to 30, I'd probably go High Tech, Mounds View, Wayzata B, Greenhill, and Del Norte. So many of these teams have put up really strong performances this year, and I'd really be interested to see how each team does at the national level on harder-difficulty sets.
Rohan VenkateswaranWestviewNo
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12/25/2019 21:22:52University Lab AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AMillburn AMission San Jose AWestview APhillips Academy AHunter AAdlai E. Stevenson ASaratoga ABeavercreek AStanford Online AChattahoochee ARichard Montgomery A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Wayzata AStrake Jesuit AMontgomery Blair BArcadia AIthaca ALASA AGeorgetown Day AWayzata BWestview BCanyon Crest A
The main hot take of this poll is putting Westview B so high up there, above Canyon Crest A and Del Norte A. However, I justify this by citing that Westview B is popping at practice, but is never able to get full teams at tournaments, so we always end up with B team being composed entirely of by soloqueue randoms. Honorable Mentions: Del Norte, High Tech, TJ B, Ed W Clark and St. Mark.
Nicholas DaiWestview High SchoolNo
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12/31/2019 1:34:55Hunter AUniversity Lab AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AMillburn AAdlai E. Stevenson APhillips Academy ASaratoga A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Mission San Jose ARichard Montgomery AStanford Online AIthaca ACanyon Crest AStrake Jesuit ABeavercreek AWayzata AWestview AGeorgetown Day AHigh Tech AHunter B
Detroit Catholic Central A
LASA ABarrington AGreenhill A
Hunter, Uni Lab, Miami Valley, and Blair are all obviously top four teams. I didn't rank Ithaca within the top ten because it was a weak field and it could just have been an anomaly judging from the other tournaments that they've played. I relied on stats for much of the rest of my rankings.
Yes
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12/26/2019 0:10:31University Lab AHunter AMiami Valley AAdlai E. Stevenson AMillburn ASaratoga AMission San Jose AMontgomery Blair AGeorgetown Day ARichard Montgomery APhillips Academy AWestview AStanford Online ABeavercreek AIthaca A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Strake Jesuit ALASA A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Canyon Crest AWayzata AHigh Tech AChattahoochee AEd W. Clark ADel Norte A
A intentionally gave advantageous rankings to teams who haven't played a high difficulty or college tournament yet with these (especially if the majority of a team's good rankings are coming from a college tournament). Obviously the rankings are subjective so I'm not trying to bash teams that have played college sets. I also ranked Blair and CCA comparatively low just because we haven't seen them in action yet, although I suspect their final rankings will probably be higher than where I have them.
Shahar SchwartzWestview High SchoolNo
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12/26/2019 0:12:17University Lab AMiami Valley AHunter AMontgomery Blair APhillips Academy AMillburn ASaratoga AGeorgetown Day AAdlai E. Stevenson ARichard Montgomery AMission San Jose A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Westview AStanford Online ACanyon Crest AStrake Jesuit AChattahoochee ABeavercreek AIthaca AWayzata A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B
Montgomery Blair BLASA A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Detroit Catholic Central A
no hot takes lmaoAbhinav Karthikeyan
Richard Montgomery High School
No
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12/26/2019 1:41:26University Lab AAdlai E. Stevenson AMiami Valley AHunter AMontgomery Blair AMillburn APhillips Academy AMission San Jose ASaratoga A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Georgetown Day AIthaca ARichard Montgomery AStanford Online ABeavercreek ACanyon Crest AStrake Jesuit ALASA ACistercian A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Westview AChattahoochee AWayzata A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Greenhill A
Most of these are just guesses. I can only say confidently that Stevenson is better than Miami Valley, Strake is better than LASA, and Cistercian is better than St. Mark's because game results are the only stats with predictive rather than anti-predictive power.
Ned Tagtmeier
St. Mark's School of Texas
No
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12/26/2019 1:41:28University Lab AMiami Valley APhillips Academy AMillburn AAdlai E. Stevenson AGeorgetown Day AHunter ASaratoga AMission San Jose AWestview ARichard Montgomery AStanford Online AMontgomery Blair A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Canyon Crest AIthaca AChattahoochee AWayzata AStrake Jesuit ABeavercreek AEd W. Clark A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
East Chapel Hill ALASA AMounds View A
Stats surfing + knowing people
Shawn Zhao
Montgomery Blair High School
No
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12/26/2019 4:03:39University Lab AMiami Valley AHunter AAdlai E. Stevenson AMission San Jose AMillburn ASaratoga APhillips Academy AStanford Online AWestview ARichard Montgomery AGeorgetown Day AMontgomery Blair AStrake Jesuit ABeavercreek A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Chattahoochee AWayzata A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
LASA A
Bellarmine College Prep A
Canyon Crest A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Del Norte AHarker A
stats, feelings, nats performances, irl performances
Yes
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12/26/2019 5:15:13University Lab AHunter AMillburn AMontgomery Blair AMiami Valley AAdlai E. Stevenson APhillips Academy AIthaca ASaratoga ACanyon Crest AMission San Jose A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Georgetown Day ABeavercreek AStrake Jesuit ARichard Montgomery AStanford Online AChattahoochee AWestview ALASA AWayzata A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Ed W. Clark AHigh Tech ALexington A
Honorable Mentions: Barrington A, Detroit Catholic Central A, Ladue A, Hunter B, Santa Monica A

This list is honestly pretty close to these teams’ actual rankings. There are some deviations, though. I tended to favor teams that could scale up better while having admittedly a small amount of anti-NAQT bias. Therefore, these rankings are probably more a reflection of probable NSC performance than HSNCT, but I feel that, for the most part, these rankings should accurately reflect the result of a game between teams on this list at least more than half of the time.

While I won't justify every single place in the ranking, I'll elaborate on some:

1. University Lab A: No surprise here—this place simply couldn't have gone to anyone else at this point in the season. Expect them to be the favorites to capture the NSC title this year. They've effortlessly put up hundred power tournaments on regular sets and have also scaled up very well on harder sets (including a 16.04 PPB on Penn Bowl without Jonathan).
2. Hunter A: They’ve done a terrific job rebounding from the loss of Daniel Ma. With Pedro and Cerulean, this team is excellent at history coverage and at all things NAQT-related (especially on current events). They may even be an improvement from last year in terms of their ability on housewrites as well (putting up a highly impressive statline on EFT with 49 powers!). Their aggressiveness however (34 negs at the same tournament) may have the potential to lead to trap games, but I expect this team to be more than capable of annihilating anyone at HSNCT.
3. Millburn A: Both Hunter and Millburn seem so evenly matched in terms of stats they could easily be interchanged here. However, Hunter does currently seem to have a leg up in their head-to-head matches, hence the ranking. Nevertheless, Millburn is a fantastic team that revolves around their key player Dean, easily one of the top players in the nation, and their excellent science specialist Benjamin Hu (who respectively posted an 91/30/7 and 36/2/1 statline on WAIT). They do seem to be appreciably less aggressive than Hunter, a double edged sword (less negs vs. getting beat to the buzzer more often), though their strong power numbers certainly don’t show it at first glance.
4. Montgomery Blair A: I’m puzzled why they haven’t gone to a tournament as of yet with their team at full strength. The stats, however, show that they have an unbelievable surplus of impact players that will make them a juggernaut of a team when they finally decide to come out in full strength. I can’t place them any higher than fourth because of the lack of tournaments, but I’m confident that once that happens, they’ll be fighting for first with Uni Lab.
5. Miami Valley A: The Groger brothers are both amazing players who both have taken a tremendous step forward this season. Their stats on regular and hard HS difficulty sets are outrageous. At one tournament, both of them broke the 100 PPG threshold (one was playing solo for a time, but still). The reason why they are ranked fifth for me is that they haven’t been able to establish the same consistency at difficulties above hard HS. For example, they had 19 powers in 11 games at EFT, which, while not bad, is quite a ways below other teams such as Hunter, Millburn, and Ithaca. That being said, they seem to be excellent at handling high-difficulty bonuses (17.99 PPB at EFT), proving their depth on a wide variety of subjects, and I expect an amazing run from them this year at HSNCT.
6. Adlai E. Stevenson A: This team, like Hunter, is incredible at history, with a powerful one-two punch in Govind Prabhakar and Arjun Nageswaran. Initially, I’m not quite sure about their coverage in other places such as literature, but judging by their stats on Penn Bowl (15.89 PPB) and at lower difficulties, it seems like they should have great all-round knowledge of the canon.
7. Phillips Academy A: Karsten Rynearson is definitively the best sophomore player in the nation, specializing in the humanities. Along with captain Vincent Fan, they have excellent coverage across the board. While Phillips has proven to be excellent at every difficulty level, their stats on regular difficulty sets are absolutely unbelievable. Their amazing 130/35/28 statline on WAIT coupled with a 24.73 PPB is already enough to justify their ranking. Their performance at higher levels is also pretty impressive, although not quite at the level of some other teams on this list, with a 39/96/42 statline across 12 games with a 17.19 PPB.
8. Ithaca A: After a strong top five finish at HSNCT and graduating all but one member of the A team, it initially looked like this would be a rebuilding year for Ithaca, with no one ranking them in the preseason poll nationally or regionally. However, Ithaca seems to have retooled extremely well. With the full team together on the EFT set, Ithaca put up a strong 32/92/19 statline with a solid 17.50 PPB across nine rounds of play. As this tournament is a relatively small sample size, I was a bit cautious of our ranking, although with more competitions with our full team, I fully expect us to cement ourselves as a top ten team. With yet another dual threat in science and audio fine arts specialist Kaelan Imani and literature/myth/history specialist Raymond Wang (yours truly), along with history specialist and noted gamer Aidan Uckun and geography/history/trash player Rohit Lal, this team looks primed for an encore performance.
9. Saratoga A: Although I admittedly don’t know very much about them, their stats more than illustrate that this is a true four-player team capable of scaling up effortlessly. Saratoga had the highest PPB out of any HS team on EFT at a very impressive mark of 18.91, and also posted a very strong 15.41 PPB on Penn Bowl while as a three player team. Like us, however, they may be stronger on housewrites, as three of their four A team players combined for just a 22.15 PPB on an IS set.
10. Canyon Crest A: Another team that I can’t rank any lower than this spot simply based on their potential. Like Montgomery Blair, they have yet to attend a tournament with their full A team intact. I expect that since they retained a talented body of juniors last year and lost no one, however, that they’ll wreck havoc this year once they get the full squad together.
Raymond WangIthacaNo
14
12/26/2019 18:38:08Montgomery Blair AUniversity Lab AHunter AMiami Valley APhillips Academy AMillburn AAdlai E. Stevenson AMission San Jose ASaratoga A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Richard Montgomery AStanford Online AGeorgetown Day AWestview ABeavercreek ALASA AChattahoochee AStrake Jesuit AWayzata A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Ed W. Clark AHigh Tech AEast Chapel Hill AMounds View ACentennial A
Uni is still #1 as of now, but I would argue that based on their stats, they don't seem to be overly dominant over the other teams on this list. While Ethan and Dylan are very consistent players, Jonathan has not been a very reliable history player and often has hot and cold streaks, suffering especially when playing against teams with top history players. Fortunately, Sasha provides much-needed support in history, and since Jonathan and Sasha have not played together very much so far, their performance will definitely improve as the season goes on. Blair has Kat and Chris, who are both top-5 science players as well as capable generalists in their own right. I don't know much about their A team lineup and what holes they have, but Sophia/Matthew/Shawn also provide good support in the rest of the distribution despite the loss of Anson. I don't know much about Hunter, but their stats on EFT are good and that alone is enough to put them at third. Miami Valley is fourth because they are very good and have almost no holes. They beat Uni Lab handily at Penn Bowl, and can be outright unstoppable on easier sets, but they lost to Stevenson twice at Penn Bowl, showing that they may not be as strong when scaling up to college sets. They also lost to Dylan and Jonathan twice at WUFAT, despite the absence of Uni's top scorer Ethan Ashbrook. For the rest of the list, I mostly went off of stats and experiences playing these teams at nats, but since many rosters have changed and many people have improved, the rankings may not be accurate. I excluded #4 Groger Ranks team Ithaca because I want to see more evidence that they are capable of replicating the amazing stats they put up at EFT, but they seem to have bounced back quite well from the loss of Isaiah, Julian, and Vanyu.
Yes
15
12/26/2019 19:51:31University Lab AHunter AAdlai E. Stevenson AMiami Valley APhillips Academy AMillburn ASaratoga AMontgomery Blair A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Richard Montgomery AMission San Jose AIthaca ACanyon Crest ABeavercreek AStrake Jesuit ALASA AWestview AChattahoochee AStanford Online AGeorgetown Day AWayzata A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
East Chapel Hill A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Ed W. Clark A
Mostly looked at this year's stats and Groger Ranks. Had to look at last year's HSNCT and PACE for teams that haven't played at full strength this year.
Teams with substantial contribution from three or four players got a boost because of the stability and predictability that more balanced scoring gives.
Robert CondronStrake JesuitNo
16
12/27/2019 1:03:52University Lab APhillips Academy AMiami Valley AHunter AAdlai E. Stevenson A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Millburn AMission San Jose ASaratoga AIthaca AWayzata AGeorgetown Day AStanford Online AMontgomery Blair ARichard Montgomery ABeavercreek AWestview AStrake Jesuit AChattahoochee ABrophy College Prep AEd W. Clark ALASA ALexington A
North Carolina Science and Math A
Wayzata B
University Lab A. University Lab has put up some really impressive numbers despite not having all of their full team. The consensus in the preseason was that they were the top team and I see no reason to change it. Phillips A. Phillips has really lived up to their promise this year, as Karsten and Vincent have had ridiculously good performances throughout the season. Their team seems to scale well, putting up great numbers on both an A set, WAIT and EFT, and they have a balance of scoring, which should help them at the very long national tournaments. Miami Valley A. The Grogers are the best duo of HS players in the country right now, and their teammates can make them one of the best teams in the country when they come. I’d rank them second if it were clearer that their teammates would come to tournaments, since they often compete as a two-person team. Hunter A. This is another good and balanced team, which includes members of the Hunter team that won MSNCT last year. They finished top bracket at an EFT stacked with great college teams. They may be better than this on just NAQT, as others have pointed out; their NAQT finishes generally seem more impressive than their mACF finishes, although both are good. Adlai E Stevenson A. Stevenson has racked up an impressive record on the Illinois circuit, including winning a New Trier tournament held on the very hard Penn Bowl set. Their performances on easier sets also are incredibly successful, and they look to achieve about another 4th place finish at HSNCT, despite the graduation of literature player Olivia Lamberti. Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A. TJ has always been a very deep team, and this year is no exception. They can play well on hard questions and look to be a consistent and strong team at the national tournaments. Now that I’ve justified my top 5, my justifications are going to be shorter. Millburn A. Millburn A has played well overall, including finishing in that same top bracket with Hunter at EFT. Mission San Jose A. One of the best Californian teams, especially with Avinash having good teammates such as Pareekshith. Saratoga A. I’m not really sure which Californian team is the best and should be ranked here, but Saratoga A has the top Groger Rank and the most balanced performance, which I think is a good predictor of success at long national tournaments. Ithaca A. It’s hard to tell how good Ithaca is. Their performance at Columbia Fall does not seem impressive, but at least some of this is due to playing without a complete team. Their EFT stats, however, are very impressive even with a weaker field, and they have reliably beaten local teams by huge margins. While they did lose a lot of their players from last year’s HSNCT performance, they still have a possibility of making top 5 again. Wayzata A. Wayzata’s performance on ACF Fall makes clear that they are one of the country’s top teams. They are also an incredibly deep team; their G team not only exists but wins games, and their B team is one of the top teams in Minnesota. Georgetown Day A. It’s not easy to tell what Georgetown Day can do, because they haven’t played with a full team, but their full team was impressive last year. Stanford Online A. The third of the top Californian teams, they resemble Georgetown Day in that they have not played with what is really their full team, but their performances point towards success when they assemble all their components. Montgomery Blair A. A third team, Montgomery Blair, has also put up great numbers with parts of its A team, but I’m not sure how they will do when they are all put together. They may be a top-5 team or this ranking may be too optimistic, and either seems equally possible. Beavercreek A. Beavercreek doesn’t have Hari Parameswaran any more, but they have shown that they are still a top team, albeit not a top candidate to win HSNCT. Richard Montgomery A. Richard Montgomery has played well and seems like a consistent team. I’m not really sure of the quality of their performances, since some of the other top DC area teams have mostly sent partial teams. Westview A. Westview has made a name for themselves as a consistently good team in Southern California. Strake Jesuit A. Strake Jesuit returns many players from a good team at HSNCT last year, and their Texas performances this year have been good, having won two tournaments. Chattahoochee A. Chattahoochee, surprisingly, already went to an out-of-state tournament at New Trier, where they showed they can compete with competition stronger than what they face on the Georgia circuit. Brophy College Prep A. Kris Noori solo finished just behind Ed W. Clark at an EFT mirror in Arizona, and, as a team, they seem even stronger, putting up 7.88 powers per game on HFT. The Arizona circuit seems to be fairly isolated, but their results deserve attention on the national stage. Ed W. Clark A. Eshaan Vakil has been a great player and their team has been the only team from Nevada that has potential for quite a good finish at Nationals. Many of their results are just Eshaan and their teammate Blu, which means that their performance could be much better with their full team. LASA A. The strength of the Texas circuit relative to other circuits can puzzle me, but LASA looks to be a good team by any margin. Lexington A. Lexington seems like the second-best team in New England, behind Phillips, but this could be prone to change. Their performances seem impressive, though the New England thread rightly noted that their power counts sometimes seem to lag behind their ppbs. NCSSM A. NCSSM hasn’t been that well known a team on a national stage, but Kevin Lu is a great history and science player with a strong base of support, though I’m not sure who the rest of their A team is. When I played them, they seem like a cautious team, which could be a good strategy at nationals to avoid the upsets that some of the teams above and below them may be prone to. Wayzata B. As I already noted, Wayzata is very deep. Their B team has been almost as impressive as their A, though I’m not sure how they will split their B and A come nationals.
Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford
East Chapel Hill High School
No
17
12/28/2019 21:54:05University Lab AHunter AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair APhillips Academy ASaratoga AMission San Jose ARichard Montgomery AStanford Online AMillburn AIthaca AGeorgetown Day ACanyon Crest AAdlai E. Stevenson A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Chattahoochee AWayzata AWestview ABeavercreek AStrake Jesuit ALASA A
Detroit Catholic Central A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
East Chapel Hill AMontgomery Blair B
Uni Lab far and away best team. Hunter had very good stats on EFT (especially powers-wise), while Miami Valley has had consistently good performances across sets (HFT, 186, 188, Scottie, etc.) Blair is a wildcard as they haven’t actually played yet but even as they graduate Anson, Sophia and Katherine should be suitable replacements for literature and the team generally has strong history science coverage. Phillips has exceeded expectations with Karsten definitely one of the best literature players and generalists in general in HSQB with Vincent & co providing significant support. Saratoga A has had strong performances on EFT and Penn Bowl in hard fields, including college teams. The other teams after these 6 could be reasonably rearranged in any way. The main departure from the posted rankings is accounting for CCA, RM, OHS and GDS not having played a tournament with full team, the small sample size of Ithaca’s performances making their ranking possibly inflated from only one tournament, and Stevenson’s lack of non history/science coverage.
Yes
18
12/28/2019 23:22:39University Lab AMontgomery Blair AMiami Valley AMillburn ASaratoga AMission San Jose AAdlai E. Stevenson AHunter AGeorgetown Day A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Stanford Online AIthaca APhillips Academy ACanyon Crest ARichard Montgomery AWestview AChattahoochee ALASA ABeavercreek AWayzata A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Ed W. Clark A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B
Strake Jesuit AMontgomery Blair B
My preseason ballot adjusted based on performance this season
Jonathan ShaufTJ ClassicalNo
19
12/29/2019 0:55:06University Lab AMontgomery Blair APhillips Academy AMiami Valley AMillburn AAdlai E. Stevenson AHunter ARichard Montgomery AMission San Jose AStanford Online ASaratoga AGeorgetown Day ACanyon Crest AStrake Jesuit A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
LASA AIthaca AChattahoochee ABeavercreek AWestview AEd W. Clark AWayzata A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
East Chapel Hill ALexington A
Tier 1: Top Nats Contenders
1. UniLab is the national favorite and the team to beat. With their trifecta of insane specialist players, it's hard to argue they're the best team in the country. 2. Blair has a plethora of amazing players, and a lot of people to choose from. While we still haven't seen them play, they have the talent, especially on mACF sets.
3. Phillips Academy has put up great stats on every set they've played. Karsten is an excellent generalist, with especially strong lit knowledge and Vincent's science/humanities knowledge is superb. Together, they are one of the best duos in the country, and with support from Max and Irura, they'll emerge from nats with a top finish.
4. Probably THE best duo in the country, the brothers Groger have played quite well at every tournament thus far. However, they are ranked fourth due to choking at nats in the past and their comparatively low EFT power rate.
5. Dean Ah Now is a very good generalist, and possibly the best history player in the country. With support from his teammates, especially the excellent science provided by Ben Hu, this team will go far at nationals.
6. The only competition to the title of best history player is, of course, Govind, who continues to be a force to be reckoned with, and now that Arjun has come into his stride (outscoring Govind at several tournaments), this team is quite fearsome, however, their lit hole at high levels still has yet to be addressed as far as I know.
7. Hunter MURDERED EFT, and their depth is quite impressive. I am not entirely sure what to expect from them at nats, as they could take a top finish or fall into the t12 range depending on how the day goes, thus this feels like an appropriate ranking.
8. RM just looks super impressive. Their deep history knowledge was already there, but with the team's push to expand, they will come into nats as quite a strong team.
9. Avinash Iyer is quite the supergeneralist, with specialist-level knowledge across the canon. With the help of his teammates, they'll do quite well, but I'm wary of what'll happen if he tilts.
10. sOHS has all the necessary tools to kill it at nats. Karan Gurazada is a top tier science-based generalist, Shiva is a strong history player, and their teammates provide support as well (Josh's geography is excellent).
11. Saratoga's stats are good, but I can't say much else, as I don't know much about them.
Tier 2: Nats Contenders
12. Georgetown Day is excellent, but inconsistent. They do neg quite a bit, which may impede their run at HSNCT, but PACE looks to be a place where they'll thrive. Matt Siff is an excellent player.
13. CCA could be amazing, or they could be lackluster, but they have yet to play this season. I feel like putting them here is the right choice, and I will happily move them up for prenats poll once they play as a team.
14. Strake seems good. I don't have much else to say.
15. TJ just doesn't seem like they're playing at close to the same level as in years past. Their EFT stats were not as good as I'd have expected. That said, they're still a force to be reckoned with, and I'm sure they'll improve for nats.
16. LASA is anchored by Chinmay, who is a top-level generalist (he's really good at geography if I'm correct). They could upset a lot of teams, or they could go into the t20 pack. I'll be interested to see which is the case.
17. Ithaca did quite well on EFT, but the field was comparatively much weaker to any other HS team that played the set, thus I can't rank them as highly as their Groger Score. However, they do look strong, and I want to see what other stats they put up, especially against other northeast teams like Hunter or Phillips.
Tier 3: Potential Upsets
18.Chattahoochee has put up solid stats, and they seem like they'll do well at nats.
19. Beavercreek did really well on BLAST, and they know how to play at the top levels of nats, so I think they could do quite well.
20. Westview has done solidly well in their circuit, putting up good stats, and their players (Shahar especially) seem to be improving, however their negging issue keeps them here for now.
21. Eshaan Vakil has been excellent for quite a while, and they could perform well, provided he gets the right packets.
22. Wayzata played well on the sets they played, and I think t20 is a reasonable placing for them.
23. St. Mark's is a very good team, but they have been upset several times this season by teams like Cistercian, thus I think this ranking is justified.
24. East Chapel Hill is a young team, and a quite good team, as seen by their EFT stats. With a few years, they'll be close to the top of this poll.
25. Lexington is very slept-on, but their best player, Charles Yang, has been quite busy. Once he resumes his study grind, I predict they'll surprise people.
Yes
20
12/29/2019 8:53:49University Lab AMillburn AMiami Valley AAdlai E. Stevenson APhillips Academy AHunter ASaratoga AIthaca AMontgomery Blair AWestview ARichard Montgomery AMission San Jose AStanford Online AStrake Jesuit A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Beavercreek AGeorgetown Day AWayzata AChattahoochee ALASA ACanyon Crest AEd W. Clark A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
High Tech ADel Norte A
1-6 All really good, nationally competitive teams, a reasonable person could switch them around in a number of ways without me seeing too much of a problem with it. Some might judge me for putting Millburn so high, but they got 2nd at NHBB last year, and experience with a deep playoff nats run seems important, and in conjunction with the fact that both Ben and Dean really seem to want to win/study gets them second place. On a side note, Uni Lab's most notorious weakness (compared to their strength in other categories) is currently history, which is the strongest core area of 3-4 of the other teams in this tier (idk what MVS's best category is). I can see this potentially hurting them if they don't patch it somewhat, particularly at PACE in the top bracket, where bouncebacks are a thing and can make the difference in competitive games.
7-20 You could also mix these around a good deal as well, I may have a bit of bias towards teams with players that I know (via SoCal or Discord), but I think I stayed largely subjective and just used what I know and what I've seen. Some may say that I ranked Westview rather high, however knowing several members of their team, I can say most of their A and B teams have a strong desire to get better and do well at nats, which I foresee translating to studying, and then better performance. Additionally, I expect Montgomery Blair to rise, but will wait till they actually play a rankable tournament as a full team before judging them. If any of these teams study binge hard, they can definitely break into the next tier.
21-25 It was hard to decide who to put, and there's many teams that you could put here, but all the ones that I put have either notably impressive stats or some other factor, like at least one player who I feel has quite a chance to improve, particularly since 2nd semester of senior year should theoretically be a great chance to study, if they care to. On a mild side note I do think that despite all their depreflexing CCA will end up ultimately being higher on the rankings, but idrk, since I haven't played their real A team in over a year despite being in their region, I just remember them being pretty good ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. (If you're interested in CCA's state, I'd recommend reading Raymond Song's post in the SoCal discussion forum if you haven't: https://www.hsquizbowl.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=52&p=364278#p364278).
Sorry if I left someone out, or seriously underranked them, but if it makes you feel any better, you shouldn't worry about my relatively uninformed opinion, as stats and ranks never tell the whole story. Thanks for reading!
Frederic O'Hara
Scripps Ranch High School
No
21
1/10/2020 6:56:46University Lab AHunter AMiami Valley AMission San Jose AMontgomery Blair APhillips Academy ASaratoga AStrake Jesuit AAdlai E. Stevenson ARichard Montgomery AMillburn A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Ithaca AWestview ACanyon Crest AStanford Online AEd W. Clark AChattahoochee AGeorgetown Day A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Beavercreek A
Detroit Catholic Central A
LASA AEast Chapel Hill AHoover A
I think Uni Lab will win HSNCT based on their performance last year and their prowess on NAQT questions.
Shohom ChakrabortyMira LomaNo
22
12/30/2019 17:24:08University Lab AMiami Valley AHunter AAdlai E. Stevenson AMontgomery Blair ARichard Montgomery A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Chattahoochee AGeorgetown Day AMission San Jose APhillips Academy AWayzata AWestview AStrake Jesuit ACanyon Crest ASaratoga AMillburn AStanford Online ALASA AEd W. Clark ABeavercreek AIthaca AHoover ADorman AHigh Tech A
1) Uni clearly front runner for this year, has done very well on both HS and college sets
2) Grogers make one of the strongest duos in the country, John John is one of the best individual as seen by his insane stats on both HS and college-level sets
3) Hunter always is very strong, Pedro (JV USHB winner) leads a team with both HSNCT and PACE experience, they're insane on NAQT and mACF. Not to mention, they're all juniors
4) Govind won Scobol Solo and along with Arjun and David, won New Trier Varsity against UniLab, who was without Jonathan but that is still extremely impressive nonetheless.
5) MB again has really impressive stats, still have Katherine Lei who is the best science player in the country right now, and they return many impressive players especially in science and history.
7) Abhinav got amazing at lit over the summer, and along with Justin and Derek, take up all of the humanities, with double (triple?) history coverage, with Abhinav being one of the top 3 geo players in the country right now.
8) Their B team has become their A team, and I don't know how much Discord can be trusted for packet readings, but Stefan is insane at science, so watch this team to do great at both nats.
9) Matthew Siff is phenomenal at the humanities, and Arthur provides great history backup.
10) Avinash is insane at everything, and he's adding Pareekshith, who, even though there is a lot of overlap, this team has an insane one-two punch as Avinash is one of the top 10 players in the country.
11) Karsten and Vincent cover everything, with Karsten being insane on any difficulty, including EFT Fall where he came close to beating Yale, and MIT Fall, where he got 150 ppg on WAIT. Vincent is really good at science and even better at math, giving this team a definite potential to do extremely well at both nats.
12) Wayzata still returns everyone except Geoffrey, and they did really well at ACF Fall mirror and other college and NAQT sets.
13) Shahar is really good, and so are his teammates. Any combination that Westview puts together has the potential to do really well at both nats.
14) Strake is the best team in TX without William Golden, and they're insane on NAQT and mACF.
15) CCA took out William Golden at PACE and still have their entire A team and they've done well at SoCal tourneys
16) Saratoga is really good this year and is one of the top teams in NorCal.
17) Dean is one of the top 10 history players in the country and a good generalist, while Ben picks up science and fine arts really well despite the super shadow.
18) Karan got really good at the humanities, still has his science knowledge, and Shiva adds phenomenal history knowledge.
19) Chinmay has really good history knowledge, and is probably the best geo + ce player in the country, and Schuyler adds fine arts.
20) Eshaan is good at everything
21) Even without Hari, they're still good because they have Tegan, Abby, and Tiffany who cover basically everything, with a few additions to their team
22) Ithaca is really good
23) Might be a little high but I think this is where Hoover is- Kapil has good general knowledge, and seems to have double sci and lit backup.
24) Dorman has done very well at SE regional tournaments
25) Hitek is really good.

Ignore all previous ballots- TAKE THIS ONE
Yes
23
1/6/2020 1:19:00University Lab AHunter AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AAdlai E. Stevenson APhillips Academy AMillburn AIthaca AMission San Jose ASaratoga AGeorgetown Day A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Beavercreek ARichard Montgomery AWestview AChattahoochee AStanford Online ACanyon Crest AWayzata AStrake Jesuit ALASA A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Lexington AEast Chapel Hill AEd W. Clark A
only going to provide justification for my "hot takes," or takes otherwise different from groger ranks I ranked hunter 2nd because their EFT stats proved they're able to scale up; since I ranked these teams based on how well I think they'll do at nationals, I considered more difficult sets a much greater indicator of skill I ranked stevenson 4th because it seems that the main thing holding them back right now is mainly just holes which I assume will be at least partly filled by the time nats rolls around. being ranked 7th despite having large subject-area holes is very impressive phillips academy 5th because karsten seems to enjoy studying more than most people. plus he has more support this time with vincent and co who all seem to be improving as well georgetown day school in 10th because matt siff seems to be very good at nats difficulty so i doubt they'll have their best performance until they play a nats difficulty set westview in 14th because their bench is deep and shahar is improving lexington A in 21st because they recently beat phillips academy A which means either 1) they have great upset potential or 2) are underranked those are most of the largest deviations from groger ranks so i am done with justification ig
Keaton Martin
Woodford County High School
No
24
1/12/2020 1:50:41University Lab AAdlai E. Stevenson AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AHunter AMillburn APhillips Academy ASaratoga AMission San Jose AIthaca A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Stanford Online ARichard Montgomery ABeavercreek AWestview AGeorgetown Day ACanyon Crest AStrake Jesuit AChattahoochee ALASA A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Wayzata AEast Chapel Hill AEd W. Clark AMounds View A
1. Uni Lab: duh, Ethan is the best lit player in the nation, yet the rest of the team still beat Miami Valley to win WUFAT without him (!!!)
2. Stevenson: Only team to come close to beating a full Uni Lab; Govind + Arjun = insane history coverage, and they had a dominant NTV performance
3. Miami Valley: Very consistent with high ppbs and low neg rates, had a strong NTV showing and even got 2nd at ACF Fall (and the highest ppb out of anyone playing the set) with only John John
4. Blair: Haven't played their full team yet, but they have Katherine - the best sci player - along with strong history and FA coverage, so they're definitely up there
5. Hunter: Put up insane EFT stats and have done very well on IS sets; could potentially contend for the HSNCT title this year, despite losing Daniel Ma
6. Millburn: Nearly as good as Hunter, with less powers but also less negs; Dean is OP and Ben is quite strong at science
7. Phillips: Very good stats, Karsten is OP but also has solid teammates like Vincent
8. Saratoga: Close one but Saratoga has slightly more consistency and balanced coverage than MSJ
9. MSJ: Avinash op and Pareeksith is strong support who will only get better, very good stats but haven't surpassed Saratoga yet
10. Ithaca: Very strong EFT stats, but it was in a weaker field and they haven't played their full team yet outside of that, remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance
11. TJ: very good team with strong well-rounded coverage combined with a amazing science player in Stefan; also got the highest Penn Bowl ppb, above Uni and Stevenson (albeit while playing online)
12. sOHS: Somewhat lackluster this season compared Saratoga or MSJ, but they're still quite strong; and Shiva has yet to join Karan on the A team at any tournament
13. RM: High stats, best performance so far in DC area tournaments (albeit due to Blair A's absence)
14. Beavercreek: Slightly lower than RM stat-wise but they've shown their ability to beat strong teams like DCC despite losing Hari
15. Westview: Has put up high stats despite playing split at every tournament - Shahar is so good that their A team can win tournaments even when Rohan is on the B team
16. GDS: Very strong but their inconsistency and high neg rate will likely limit their placement at nats... "We can beat any team in the nation, but we can also lose to any team in the nation" - Matt Siff
17. CCA: Despite having a strong team (which notably hasn't played with all 4 members yet), CCA likely won't place as highly at nats as they could, unless they can get their act together and actually start trying at quizbowl again instead of doing stuff like trying to get a 100% power rate
18-24: a bunch of solid teams, ordered according to Groger Rank; LASA's notably 9th in the NAQT-only rankings (so will should scary at HSNCT), while East and Clark got their high score from EFT (so should scale up well at PACE)
25. Mounds View: Shardul's high stats and strong performances (including a win over Ed W. Clark at WAIT) put Mounds View ahead of teams like High Tech and DCC (who both seem to struggle on non-NAQT sets relative to their Groger Rank, while not quite reaching LASA-like NAQT dominance to compensate)
Honorable Mentions: Lexington A (low power rate but is able to beat teams like Phillips), High Tech A and DCC A (see above), Barrington A (high Groger Score from NAQT sets), Ladue A (high stats but our tournament performance LUL), Wayzata B and Hunter B (HOW DO THEY HAVE SO MANY GOOD PLAYERS)
Eric YinLadue High SchoolNo
25
1/9/2020 3:35:22University Lab AMiami Valley AMontgomery Blair AHunter APhillips Academy AAdlai E. Stevenson ASaratoga AMillburn AMission San Jose ACanyon Crest ABeavercreek ARichard Montgomery AGeorgetown Day AStanford Online AIthaca AWayzata AChattahoochee AWestview A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Ed W. Clark A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Mounds View AStrake Jesuit ALASA ABarrington A
Uni Lab beat Miami Valley at WUFAT and is the best team in a country with their Big 3. Montgomery Blair has a lot of promise and performed well, albeit on an A-set, this year. Hunter, Phillips, Saratoga, MSJ, and Millburn have put up great stats on the year, and Stevenson has surprised with how well they've been doing after losing Olivia, winning NTV. The rest is based off of stats and scaling up and how well they will be able to keep it up.
Yes
26
1/11/2020 19:55:21Hunter AMiami Valley AUniversity Lab ARichard Montgomery AMillburn AMission San Jose A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Adlai E. Stevenson ALASA ABeavercreek AWestview AStrake Jesuit AWayzata AMontgomery Blair ACanyon Crest ABarrington AWayzata B
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Detroit Catholic Central A
High Tech AGeorgetown Day ADel Norte ASaratoga AHunter BStanford Online A
I think the top two positions are almost a tossup, but I give the edge to Hunter. I think Richard Montgomery And University Lab are scarily balanced again.
Yes
27
1/11/2020 18:40:45University Lab APhillips Academy AAdlai E. Stevenson ALASA AHunter AStanford Online AMiami Valley AStrake Jesuit AWayzata AMission San Jose A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Millburn AIthaca AChattahoochee AWestview ARichard Montgomery AMontgomery Blair ABeavercreek AGeorgetown Day ACanyon Crest A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Saratoga A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Lexington ADel Norte A
I went off experience and the Groger Rankings, HSNCT 2019 stats, and personal experience where applicable.
Yes
28
1/11/2020 22:16:26University Lab AHunter APhillips Academy AMontgomery Blair AAdlai E. Stevenson AMiami Valley ASaratoga AStanford Online AMillburn AGeorgetown Day AIthaca ARichard Montgomery AMission San Jose AWestview A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Canyon Crest AStrake Jesuit AEd W. Clark A
Detroit Catholic Central A
LASA AChattahoochee AWayzata A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
Lexington ABeavercreek A
Uni is good. I think hunter and uni are top 2. phillips is very threatening but they have some coverage issues, nonetheless solid in literature. blair is also good despite having not played, I think that they'll probably do better at pace than hsnct but depending on how much they've studied in the past like 7 months they could be higher or lower. stevenson and mv are about tied in my eyes but I gave it to stevenson since they beat mv twice at ntv. saratoga had good penn bowl stats. stanford online hasn't played together yet but I mean they seem like they're going to do well at hsnct judging by their strong science/history/geo coverage. millburn is like stevenson but more reliant on 2 players in my eyes, still a top 10 team and very threatening. gds hasn't played as a full team yet but I think they seem good enough. ithaca is an unknown but they had good eft :shrug:. rm is good at humanities but apparently they suck at science so that puts a cap on their performance. msj is good but I think that it'll be hard for avinash to keep up stamina at nats. good ppb though. westview is good at lit and I think they have that same factor from last year where they put up underwhelming numbers on regs but scale up quite well especially on naqt stuff. tj put up good ppb on penn bowl but apparently they might've cheated and their power numbers outside of stefan were pretty meh so I don't think they'll scale up too well, or at least well enough to beat all the teams above them. cca lul. strake seems good ig. idrk about any of these other teams but uhhhh lex seems good. uni winnats
Dylan BowmanUniversity LabNo
29
1/11/2020 23:21:29University Lab AMontgomery Blair AMiami Valley AHunter AAdlai E. Stevenson AMillburn APhillips Academy ASaratoga ACanyon Crest AGeorgetown Day AStanford Online ARichard Montgomery AMission San Jose A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Westview AIthaca AStrake Jesuit ABeavercreek ALASA AChattahoochee ALexington AWayzata AEd W. Clark AMounds View A
Detroit Catholic Central A
More or less based on Groger Ranks. I inserted Canyon Crest and Blair where I think they would be if they played their full A teams. I gave boosts to teams live GDS and sOHS since they haven't played full yet. I also favored teams that had more consistent performances and more balanced scoring.
Yes
30
1/12/2020 3:38:31University Lab AMiami Valley APhillips Academy AHunter AMillburn AMission San Jose ACanyon Crest AMontgomery Blair ASaratoga AAdlai E. Stevenson A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Ithaca AGeorgetown Day AStanford Online ABeavercreek ARichard Montgomery AStrake Jesuit AWestview AChattahoochee ALASA AWayzata AEd W. Clark AEast Chapel Hill A
Detroit Catholic Central A
St. Mark's School of Texas A
stats don't care about your feelings
Yes
31
1/12/2020 5:39:43University Lab AMontgomery Blair AMiami Valley AAdlai E. Stevenson AHunter AMission San Jose AMillburn AIthaca ASaratoga AStanford Online A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Georgetown Day ACanyon Crest APhillips Academy AStrake Jesuit AWestview AWayzata ABeavercreek AChattahoochee ALASA AMounds View AEd W. Clark A
Detroit Catholic Central A
East Chapel Hill AWayzata B
Uni Lab is still #1 for me when they are playing at full strength. I put MVS at 2 because they are scary and I feel that Blair is kinda unproven. They should still be scary so I will throw them in at number 3. Getting a chance to play against Stevenson, they impressed me a lot and Hunter has been putting up really good stats this year.Number 6-10 are kinda interchangeable for me, I think MVS is the best of the bunch. I think TJ is just a tier below 6-10 and GDS is inconsistent so I cant really put them in the top 10. Matthew is still very good though and on the right questions I think they can nearly been anybody. CCA should be good but we haven't seen them play hence my dropping them since the preseason, Phillips is also very good, just a bit inconsistent from what I have seen. Strake and Westview have been putting up very good stats and I think both teams are slightly better than us. I put my own team next since I think that we edge out the rest of the teams in both stats and having had the opportunity to play against common opponents. I may be overranking us a little bit, but I think we belong somewhere in the 15-20 range. Creek and Hooch are about at the same level as us, LASA a tier below them and pretty even with Mounds View who is also very scary. Having played against them and seen them play, I can confirm, Mounds View is a scary team. They edged Clark at the WAIT main site, so I gave them the upper spot, I was not terribly impressed by DCCA playing against them at ACF Fall. Maybe we just caught them on a bad packet. ECH has been putting up good stats and I ranked Wayzata B 25th since I do think they are the best B team in the country, and can definitely beat us on the right packet.
Ben WeinerWayzata HSNo
32
1/12/2020 6:30:49University Lab AHunter AMontgomery Blair APhillips Academy AAdlai E. Stevenson AMiami Valley AMission San Jose ASaratoga ARichard Montgomery AStanford Online AMillburn AWayzata A
Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A
Beavercreek AChattahoochee AGeorgetown Day AWestview ACanyon Crest AIthaca AStrake Jesuit ALASA AEd W. Clark A
Detroit Catholic Central A
Hunter BStanton College Prep A
Writeup for top 6, hopefully nothing later is super controversial. I used stats and feelings, with my personal feelings having heavier emphasis. Honestly there’s not that many points of comparison, since at this point most teams (unless you’re Miami Valley or Northmont) haven’t played all the sets, but I would have liked to put in more time to research so there’s definitely a possibility that some of my thoughts might be dubious. There are a lot of good teams out there!

Uni Lab’s performances, mostly without full teams, are good enough that I anticipate them being a near-unanimous #1 pick, and they should be considered favorites for both nationals. I feel like having faith in my own team -- our EFT performance was far and away the best performance of any team so far (as the number 1 team in the mACF rankings, Hunter is further away from the 2nd place team than the 2nd place team is from the 10th place team), and I have confidence in our NAQT abilities as well (we’re apparently 2nd on NAQT ranks and it didn’t even feel like a particularly good set for us). Blair might be better than us, but they haven’t played anything yet so it’s hard to tell. Phillips 4th might be a little high but they scare me, I have a 0-2 record both against Karsten’s Greens Farms and against Phillips before Karsten. Stevenson is scary, won New Trier. Miami Valley is probably the best team on IS-level sets but I worry about their ability to scale to nats, especially in powers. The next 12 or so teams are also national contenders, we’ll see how well everyone does over the remainder of the year! (One thing to point out -- I’m going to trust Raymond Song’s analysis of his own team (Canyon Crest) for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up in the top 5 when they actually play some things.)
Cerulean Ozarow
Hunter College High School
No
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