Estimate of non EA donations during #EAGivingTuesday

	A	B
1	Estimate of non EA donations
2	Estimate Calculations
3	Number of fundraisers	448
4	Sum surplus on fundraisers whose funding exceeded pledged amount, excluding fundraisers with most of the surplus likely attributable to EA donors	$10,999
5	For fundraisers that undershot pledges, sum of estimated donation amounts from non-EA donors	$488
6	Total estimated donations from non-EA donors	$11,487
7	Total donations for all fundraisers	$379,400
8	Percent of estimated donations from non-EA donors	3%
9	Sum in donations to fundraisers conducted after Nov 29, 2017 (based on the manual checks conducted by team members)	$6,670
10
11
12	Idea and Methodology
13	- Recorded donations to fundraisers above what was pledged on this fundraiser matching sheet could be potentially be considered 'non EA' donations.
14	- However, some EAs who pledged donations here did not or were unable to fulfill their pledged amounts (which might mean that total funding falls below the pledged funding).
15	- We very crudely estimate the amount of potentially non-EA donations by summing the surplus donations on fundraisers whose actual funding amount exceeded their pledged funding amount, and extrapolating over the total number of fundraisers on this sheet.
16	- We also dropped fundraisers that were deleted from our sample (since we could not see the total amount donated for those fundraisers)
17	- In addition, after examining fundraisers with surplus donations as calculated above, we noticed a number of fundraisers with large surpluses (>$500), and a large number of fundraisers where it looked like most of the surplus donations were probably from EA's. To avoid overestimating non-EA donations, we manually checked all the fundraisers with surplus donations, made a subjective judgment about whether the surplus donations were probably mostly from EA's, and removed those fundraisers from our sample. (Whether a donor was EA or not was mostly judged based on whether we recognized their names as EA's, whether their names were in the fundraisers spreadsheet, or whether they had more than a few mutual Facebook friends with Avi.)
18	- To try to find more non-EA donations, we also looked at fundraisers with donations that undershot their pledges (but were > $0), based on the view that a discrepancy of any kind could be an indicator of donations made off the spreadsheet. For each of these, we made a subjective judgment on the donation amounts we thought originated from non-EA's.
19	- The resulting estimate can be taken as a crude ballpark measure of non EA donations.
20
21	Potential biases
22	That bias these estimates upwards
23	- As noted above, many donations, including some very large ones, could not have been verified as coming from either EAs or non EAs. If we've incorrectly judged that some EA donations to be non-EA, then our $11k estimate may be an overestimate.
24	- Fundraisers where the amount donated >= the amount pledged were more likely to have any donations to them at all. This means Facebook's algorithm was probably more likely to show these fundraisers to non-EAs, thus enticing further donations.
25
26	That bias these estimates downwards
27	- As noted above, many donations, including some very large ones, could not have been verified as coming from either EAs or non EAs. If we've incorrectly judged that some non-EA donations to be EA, then our $11k estimate may be an underestimate.
28	- It's likely that not all fundraisers where the amount donated >= the amount pledged were ones where EAs donated all that they had pledged. One important reason is that some EA's may have seen some early donations from non-EA's, and may have reduced their donations by the same amount to avoid going over the $1000 match limit. If so, the difference between the amount donated and amount pledged in those cases underestimates the amount non-EAs pledged.
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100