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The next sheet contains estimates of different career paths Benjamin Todd is considering, taken from (<https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Zpu03iuqmGtmt5mT-vo1wP6PWIlS1YPyQtlV29mYoVQ/edit#>).

I spent ~1h creating these, at the request of Ozzie Gooen. They are pretty rough. In particular, I used monetary amounts, because I didn't want to take the time to estimate stuff in basis points of reduction in x-risk, QALYs, or similar. I think this might be possible in the future, but right now I just don't have the templates for this.

I am more confident in the rough conclusion that all opportunities seem to be within ~1 order of magnitude in their mean. I am not very confident that the first row estimates are particularly correct, and the fact that they are ~4x the next best estimate is probably a result of the estimation estrategy, and I wouldn't put all that much weight into it.

I think that the rough order of magnitude seems about right.

The estimations are written in Squiggle. You could use this Google Sheet (<https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uKtQDlOQ0UYJznlzDNAwSdvwIB6bYv4tT8Z5gIQi7Fc/edit#gid=0>) to translate from Google Sheets to Squiggle, but because this is a tiny spreadsheet, you might as well input them into the Squiggle playground (<https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground/>) directly and visualize the distribution rather than the mean

Estimates for personal fit have a default value of 1, but could be changed. The "chance of success" column is also pretty generic.

— Nuño Sempere.
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