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https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/01/25/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-7-toolbox
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https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/08/29/google-sheet-updates-swr-series-part-28
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You cannot edit this version. Please go to File > Make a Copy to save your own version! Please read the Disclaimers. All rights reserved. When sharing with others please give credit! Thanks!
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Parameters:Results:
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Portfolio:Failure Probabilities of different initial withdrawal ratesFailure Probabilities Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown
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Stocks80%SWRAllSince 1926Since 1950CAPE<=20CAPE>20CAPE>30
S&P500 High
Drdwn 0-10%
Drdwn 10-20%
Drdwn 20-30%
Drdwn>30%
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Bonds20%3.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Cash0%3.25%0.06%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.24%1.69%0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Custom Series0%3.50%0.29%0.37%0.13%0.00%1.20%5.08%1.08%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Gold0%3.75%5.12%5.83%7.20%1.36%17.11%33.90%11.35%7.93%0.34%0.00%0.00%
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Fama-French Style Factors. Only post Jul-19264.00%9.78%9.72%11.36%3.63%29.40%49.15%17.84%16.21%3.10%0.47%0.00%
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Small Stocks (SMB)0.00%4.25%16.56%16.02%18.69%8.76%41.45%66.10%23.78%27.07%13.10%2.36%0.00%
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Value Stocks (HML)0.00%4.50%21.51%20.28%22.98%13.67%46.51%76.27%29.19%30.86%24.48%5.66%1.39%
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Expense Ratio (p.a.)0.05%4.75%28.58%25.56%28.28%21.07%52.53%94.92%36.76%37.24%35.52%16.51%2.44%
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Project Future Real Returns5.00%36.06%31.48%35.61%29.08%58.31%98.31%44.32%45.86%42.76%27.36%5.23%
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Stocks for next 10Y3.50%SWRs to target different Failure RatesSWR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown
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Stocks after that5.00%
Failure Rates
AllSince 1926Since 1950CAPE<=20CAPE>20CAPE>30
S&P500 High
Drdwn 0-10%
Drdwn 10-20%
Drdwn 20-30%
Drdwn>30%
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Bonds for next 10Y0.00%0.00%3.25%3.25%3.47%3.53%3.25%3.25%3.25%3.38%3.74%3.99%4.32%
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Bonds after that1.50%1.00%3.58%3.56%3.56%3.71%3.50%3.32%3.51%3.61%3.86%4.10%4.48%
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Cash for next 10Y0.00%2.00%3.63%3.62%3.62%3.86%3.54%3.39%3.54%3.64%3.93%4.20%4.73%
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Cash after that1.00%5.00%3.74%3.73%3.69%4.04%3.61%3.51%3.61%3.70%4.09%4.44%5.00%
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Custom Series for next 10Y
0.00%10.00%4.01%4.02%3.89%4.35%3.68%3.58%3.73%3.78%4.20%4.60%5.28%
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Custom Series after that0.00%25.00%4.64%4.72%4.62%4.88%3.86%3.72%4.33%4.17%4.51%4.97%6.11%
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Gold for next 10Y1.00%50.00%5.55%5.89%5.71%6.06%4.63%4.02%5.34%5.11%5.23%5.75%7.07%
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Gold after that1.00%Failsafe WRs around 5 Prominent Market PeaksFailsafe by Equity Drawdown
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Retirement Horizon (Months)
720
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Final Value Target (%of initial)
25%19293.25%DrawdownSWRRelative
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1964-693.47%0%3.25%100.00
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Supplemental Income/Expenses: Additional Cash Flow in % of initial Net Worth: >0 means income, <0 means additional withdrawal1972/733.89%5%3.66%112.59
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Month% of initial NW1999-20003.52%10%3.74%115.17
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10.0000%2008/094.69%15%3.74%115.17
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20.0000%Failsafe WRs by Decade20%3.99%122.69
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30.0000%25%4.10%126.06
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40.0000%1920s3.25%30%4.32%132.97
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50.0000%1930s3.74%35%4.62%142.16
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60.0000%1940s5.27%40%4.93%151.73
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70.0000%1950s4.41%45%5.25%161.68
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80.0000%1960s3.47%50%6.35%195.45
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90.0000%1970s3.89%
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100.0000%1980s6.18%
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110.0000%1990s3.63%
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120.0000%2000s3.52%
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130.0000%
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140.0000%
45
150.0000%
46
160.0000%
47
170.0000%
48
180.0000%
49
190.0000%
50
200.0000%
51
210.0000%
52
220.0000%
53
230.0000%
54
240.0000%
55
250.0000%
56
260.0000%
57
270.0000%
58
280.0000%
59
290.0000%
60
300.0000%
61
310.0000%
62
320.0000%
63
330.0000%
64
340.0000%
65
350.0000%
66
360.0000%
67
370.0000%
68
380.0000%
69
390.0000%
70
400.0000%
71
410.0000%
72
420.0000%
73
430.0000%
74
440.0000%
75
450.0000%
76
460.0000%
77
470.0000%
78
480.0000%
79
490.0000%
80
500.0000%
81
510.0000%
82
520.0000%
83
530.0000%
84
540.0000%
85
550.0000%
86
560.0000%
87
570.0000%
88
580.0000%
89
590.0000%
90
600.0000%
91
610.0000%
92
620.0000%
93
630.0000%
94
640.0000%
95
650.0000%
96
660.0000%
97
670.0000%
98
680.0000%
99
690.0000%
100
700.0000%
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