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http://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/01/25/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-7-toolbox
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http://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/08/29/google-sheet-updates-swr-series-part-28
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You cannot edit this version. Please go to File > Make a Copy to save your own version! Please read the Disclaimers. All rights reserved. When sharing with others please give credit! Thanks!
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Parameters:Results:
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Portfolio:Failure Probabilities of different initial withdrawal ratesFailure Probabilities Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown
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Stocks80%SWRAllSince 1926Since 1950CAPE<=20
20<CAPE<=30
CAPE>30
S&P500 High
Drdwn 0-10%
Drdwn 10-20%
Drdwn 20-30%
Drdwn>30%
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Bonds20%3.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Cash0%3.25%0.06%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.75%0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Gold0%3.50%0.46%0.65%0.51%0.00%0.84%8.77%1.88%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Fama-French Style Factors. Only post Jul-19263.75%5.41%6.30%7.83%1.36%14.80%40.35%12.10%8.26%0.34%0.00%0.00%
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Small Stocks (SMB)0.00%4.00%9.89%9.91%11.62%3.70%25.98%52.63%18.55%15.83%3.42%0.48%0.00%
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Value Stocks (HML)0.00%4.25%16.79%16.39%19.19%8.91%37.15%71.93%24.46%26.68%13.36%3.38%0.00%
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Expense Ratio (p.a.)0.05%4.50%21.97%21.02%23.99%13.67%41.62%91.23%30.11%30.64%25.00%7.25%1.39%
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Project Future Real Returns 2018 and forward
4.75%29.84%27.59%31.19%20.92%51.96%98.25%37.90%38.38%37.67%16.91%3.48%
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Stocks for next 10Y3.75%5.00%38.07%34.72%40.03%29.00%61.73%100.00%46.24%47.16%45.21%32.85%5.57%
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Stocks after that5.00%SWRs to target different Failure RatesSWR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown
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Bonds for next 10Y0.25%
Failure Rates
AllSince 1926Since 1950CAPE<=20
20<CAPE<=30
CAPE>30
S&P500 High
Drdwn 0-10%
Drdwn 10-20%
Drdwn 20-30%
Drdwn>30%
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Bonds after that1.50%0.00%3.25%3.25%3.43%3.53%3.46%3.25%3.25%3.38%3.74%3.99%4.32%
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Cash for next 10Y0.00%1.00%3.56%3.54%3.54%3.71%3.52%3.32%3.46%3.60%3.82%4.10%4.48%
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Cash after that1.00%2.00%3.61%3.60%3.59%3.86%3.55%3.38%3.52%3.62%3.91%4.15%4.68%
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Gold1.00%5.00%3.74%3.70%3.66%4.04%3.61%3.44%3.58%3.68%4.07%4.40%4.98%
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10.00%4.00%4.01%3.87%4.34%3.68%3.53%3.69%3.78%4.20%4.61%5.23%
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Retirement Horizon (Months)
72025.00%4.63%4.68%4.53%4.88%3.94%3.63%4.26%4.17%4.50%4.88%6.09%
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Final Value Target (%of initial)
25%50.00%5.52%5.78%5.59%6.06%4.73%3.91%5.18%5.08%5.18%5.76%7.02%
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Failsafe WRs in 5 Prominent Market Peaks
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Supplemental Income/Expenses: Additional Cash Flow in % of initial Net Worth: >0 means income, <0 means additional withdrawal
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Month% of initial NW19293.25%
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10.0000%1964-693.46%
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20.0000%1972/733.88%
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30.0000%1999-20003.43%
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40.0000%2008/094.52%
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50.0000%
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60.0000%
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70.0000%
35
80.0000%
36
90.0000%
37
100.0000%
38
110.0000%
39
120.0000%
40
130.0000%
41
140.0000%
42
150.0000%
43
160.0000%
44
170.0000%
45
180.0000%
46
190.0000%
47
200.0000%
48
210.0000%
49
220.0000%
50
230.0000%
51
240.0000%
52
250.0000%
53
260.0000%
54
270.0000%
55
280.0000%
56
290.0000%
57
300.0000%
58
310.0000%
59
320.0000%
60
330.0000%
61
340.0000%
62
350.0000%
63
360.0000%
64
370.0000%
65
380.0000%
66
390.0000%
67
400.0000%
68
410.0000%
69
420.0000%
70
430.0000%
71
440.0000%
72
450.0000%
73
460.0000%
74
470.0000%
75
480.0000%
76
490.0000%
77
500.0000%
78
510.0000%
79
520.0000%
80
530.0000%
81
540.0000%
82
550.0000%
83
560.0000%
84
570.0000%
85
580.0000%
86
590.0000%
87
600.0000%
88
610.0000%
89
620.0000%
90
630.0000%
91
640.0000%
92
650.0000%
93
660.0000%
94
670.0000%
95
680.0000%
96
690.0000%
97
700.0000%
98
710.0000%
99
720.0000%
100
730.0000%
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