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http://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/01/25/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-7-toolbox
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http://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/08/29/google-sheet-updates-swr-series-part-28
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You cannot edit this version. Please go to File > Make a Copy to save your own version! Please read the Disclaimers. All rights reserved. When sharing with others please give credit! Thanks!
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Parameters:Results:
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Portfolio:Failure Probabilities of different initial withdrawal ratesFailure Probabilities Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown
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Stocks80%SWRAllSince 1926Since 1950CAPE<=20CAPE>20CAPE>30
S&P500 High
Drdwn 0-10%
Drdwn 10-20%
Drdwn 20-30%
Drdwn>30%
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Bonds20%3.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Cash0%3.25%0.06%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.24%1.69%0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Custom Series (not yet used!)
0%3.50%0.46%0.65%0.51%0.00%1.93%10.17%1.89%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Gold0%3.75%5.29%6.11%7.58%1.36%17.83%38.98%11.35%8.45%0.34%0.00%0.00%
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Fama-French Style Factors. Only post Jul-19264.00%9.83%9.81%11.49%3.63%29.64%50.85%17.84%16.21%3.45%0.47%0.00%
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Small Stocks (SMB)0.00%4.25%16.79%16.39%19.19%8.84%42.17%71.19%24.05%27.07%13.45%3.30%0.00%
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Value Stocks (HML)0.00%4.50%21.91%20.93%23.86%13.67%48.19%88.14%29.73%31.03%24.48%7.55%1.39%
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Expense Ratio (p.a.)0.05%4.75%29.10%26.39%29.42%21.07%54.70%96.61%37.03%37.76%36.55%16.51%3.14%
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Project Future Real Returns 2018 and forward
5.00%37.67%34.07%39.14%29.08%65.06%100.00%45.68%47.24%43.79%33.02%5.23%
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Stocks for next 10Y3.75%SWRs to target different Failure RatesSWR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown
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Stocks after that5.00%
Failure Rates
AllSince 1926Since 1950CAPE<=20CAPE>20CAPE>30
S&P500 High
Drdwn 0-10%
Drdwn 10-20%
Drdwn 20-30%
Drdwn>30%
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Bonds for next 10Y0.25%0.00%3.25%3.25%3.46%3.53%3.25%3.25%3.25%3.38%3.74%3.99%4.32%
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Bonds after that1.50%1.00%3.57%3.55%3.55%3.71%3.47%3.32%3.48%3.58%3.82%4.10%4.48%
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Cash for next 10Y0.00%2.00%3.62%3.61%3.60%3.86%3.52%3.39%3.52%3.63%3.91%4.18%4.70%
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Cash after that1.00%5.00%3.74%3.71%3.68%4.04%3.58%3.46%3.60%3.69%4.09%4.42%4.99%
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Custom Series for next 10Y
0.00%10.00%4.01%4.01%3.88%4.35%3.66%3.52%3.70%3.78%4.20%4.58%5.25%
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Custom Series after that0.00%25.00%4.63%4.70%4.58%4.88%3.84%3.66%4.33%4.16%4.51%4.90%6.09%
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Gold1.00%50.00%5.52%5.83%5.62%6.06%4.58%3.96%5.23%5.09%5.22%5.68%7.02%
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Failsafe WRs around 5 Prominent Market Peaks
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Retirement Horizon (Months)
720
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Final Value Target (%of initial)
25%19293.25%
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1964-693.46%
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Supplemental Income/Expenses: Additional Cash Flow in % of initial Net Worth: >0 means income, <0 means additional withdrawal1972/733.88%
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Month% of initial NW1999-20003.46%
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10.0000%2008/094.58%
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20.0000%
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30.0000%
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40.0000%
35
50.0000%
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60.0000%
37
70.0000%
38
80.0000%
39
90.0000%
40
100.0000%
41
110.0000%
42
120.0000%
43
130.0000%
44
140.0000%
45
150.0000%
46
160.0000%
47
170.0000%
48
180.0000%
49
190.0000%
50
200.0000%
51
210.0000%
52
220.0000%
53
230.0000%
54
240.0000%
55
250.0000%
56
260.0000%
57
270.0000%
58
280.0000%
59
290.0000%
60
300.0000%
61
310.0000%
62
320.0000%
63
330.0000%
64
340.0000%
65
350.0000%
66
360.0000%
67
370.0000%
68
380.0000%
69
390.0000%
70
400.0000%
71
410.0000%
72
420.0000%
73
430.0000%
74
440.0000%
75
450.0000%
76
460.0000%
77
470.0000%
78
480.0000%
79
490.0000%
80
500.0000%
81
510.0000%
82
520.0000%
83
530.0000%
84
540.0000%
85
550.0000%
86
560.0000%
87
570.0000%
88
580.0000%
89
590.0000%
90
600.0000%
91
610.0000%
92
620.0000%
93
630.0000%
94
640.0000%
95
650.0000%
96
660.0000%
97
670.0000%
98
680.0000%
99
690.0000%
100
700.0000%
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