Estimating Coronavirus Prevalence from Mortality

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S
1	date	region used as starting point	deaths in region	est true mortality rate	cases (when fatal cases were contracted)	est days till mortality	est days per doubling	est cases now in region	pop of region	est rate in region	1 per ___ in region	confirmed cases in region	confirmed cases in bay (9 counties)	est cases now in bay	pop of bay	est rate in bay	1 per __ in bay	smoothed implied rate (1 per __)	comment

2
3	3/11/20	bay+	3	0.016	188	19	4	5,045	11,000,000	0.000459	2,180			3,578	7,800,000	0.000459	2,180		median estimate 1
4	3/11/20	usa	37	0.016	2,313	19	4	62,226	330,000,000	0.000189	5,303	1281	108	5,246	7,800,000	0.000673	1,487		median estimate 2
5	3/11/20													4,332		0.000555	1,800	1,732
6
7	3/10/20	bay+	3	0.016	188	19	4	5,045	11,000,000	0.000459	2,180			3,578	7,800,000	0.000459	2,180		median estimate 1
8	3/10/20	usa	28	0.016	1,750	19	4	47,090	330,000,000	0.000143	7,008	1037	99	4,496	7,800,000	0.000576	1,735		median estimate 2
9	3/10/20													4,010		0.000514	1,945	2,005
10
11	3/9/20	bay+	2	0.016	125	19	4	3,364	11,000,000	0.000306	3,270			2,385	7,800,000	0.000306	3,270		median estimate 1
12	3/9/20	usa	27	0.016	1,688	19	4	45,408	330,000,000	0.000138	7,267	754	93	5,601	7,800,000	0.000718	1,393		median estimate 2
13	3/9/20													3,655		0.000469	2,134	2,432
14
15	3/8/20	bay+	1	0.016	63	19	4	1,682	11,000,000	0.000153	6,541	84	74	1,193	7,800,000	0.000153	6,541		median estimate 1
16	3/8/20	usa	21	0.016	1,313	19	4	35,318	330,000,000	0.000107	9,344	554	74	4,718	7,800,000	0.000605	1,653		median estimate 2
17	3/8/20													2,372		0.000304	3,289	3,129
18
19	3/7/20	bay+	1	0.016	63	19	4	1,682	11,000,000	0.000153	6,541	73	64	1,193	7,800,000	0.000153	6,541		median estimate 1
20	3/7/20	usa	17	0.016	1,063	19	4	28,590	330,000,000	0.000087	11,542	416	64	4,399	7,800,000	0.000564	1,773		median estimate 2
21	3/7/20													2,290		0.000294	3,406	3,406	geometric mean of 2 median estimates
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