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BeninAngolaChadNigeriaTogoUgandaSourceArchiveNotes
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Below, we estimate all-cause mortality in the population participating in VAS programs (6- to 59-month olds in the specified countries) based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Project (GBD).
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Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data
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Number of under-5 deaths (per year), 201941,95558,76585,575773,09515,01091,702GBD 2019
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Number of "Early neonatal" (0-6 days) deaths (per year), 201913,03820,69519,471222,3585,10833,675GBD 2019
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Number of "Late neonatal" (7-27 days) deaths (per year), 20192,3723,2765,93554,8298197,104GBD 2019
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Number of "Post neonatal" (28-364 days) deaths (per year), 201911,43517,13327,388207,6453,68725,134GBD 2019
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Mortality rate in each month of life for 1-5 month olds compared to 6-11 month olds1.01.01.01.01.01.0Assumption
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Number of annual deaths in post-neonatal period in each monthly age bracket, 20191,0401,5582,49018,8773352,285Calculation
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Number of deaths in 1-5 month olds (per year), 20195,1987,78812,44994,3841,67611,424Calculation
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Number of remaining deaths in 6-59 months olds (per year), 201921,34827,00747,720401,5247,40839,500Calculation
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Percentage of annual under-5 deaths that occur in 6-59 month olds, 201951%46%56%52%49%43%Calculation
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Under-5 mortality rate (per 100,000 child years), 20191,8831,1422,5682,3061,3461,293
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Estimated population of 6-59 month olds2,039,2364,710,9513,050,23730,680,8211,020,3766,488,924
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Deaths per 1,000 child years for children 6 months to 59 months of age10.55.715.613.17.36.1Calculation
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Relative risk of all-cause mortality for children aged 6- to 59-months participating in VAS programs0.760.760.760.760.760.76Imdad et al. 2017
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Effectiveness of past VAS programs at reducing child mortality, relative to mortality effects found in VAS randomized controlled trials in Imdad et al. 201750%50%50%50%50%50%GiveWell's guess
It is our understanding that VAS programs have been implemented in these countries fairly regularly over the past decade (or longer). We would guess that these programs have had some impact on rates of child mortality as of 2016. It seems unlikely, however, that these programs reduced child mortality rates as much as child mortality rates were reduced in randomized controlled trials of VAS included in Imdad et al. 2017—implementation of these programs at a national scale likely resulted in lower coverage than under experimental conditions. We roughly guess that past VAS programs led to a child mortality reduction effect 50% as large as the effect found in Imdad et al. 2017.
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Estimated deaths per 1,000 child-years for 6 months to 59 months of age, in absence of past vitamin A supplementation programs11.96.517.814.98.26.9
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Calculations
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Deaths per 1,000 child-years for children 6 months to 59 months of age, in absence of past vitamin A supplementation programs, 201911.96.517.814.98.26.9
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Relative to 10.6 deaths per 1,000 child-years112%61%168%140%78%65%
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