Simple ARR Projection Template

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	Q
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2		Historical	Historical	Historical	Historical	Historical	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
3		6/30/21	9/30/21	12/31/21	3/31/22	6/30/22	9/30/22	12/31/22	3/31/23	6/30/23	9/30/23	12/31/23	3/31/24	6/30/24
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5	Total ARR	$114	$137	$157	$171	$188	$207	$228	$250	$273	$299	$327	$358	$390
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7	Total Revenue	$27	$32	$35	$37	$42	$47	$52	$57	$62	$68	$74	$81	$89	= Rev % * average (Current Q ARR, Last Q ARR) / 4
8	Rev. % of Avg. ARR		102.1%	95.5%	90.4%	93.7%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	= Revenue / ( average (Current Q ARR, Last Q ARR) / 4)
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10	S&M	$17	$21	$22	$23	$23	$26	$29	$30	$32	$35	$40	$41	$42
11	CAC	$50,746	$45,652	$58,667	$73,016	$65,714	$70,000	$72,000	$74,000	$76,000	$78,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000
12	Magic Number		1.18	0.57	0.36	0.87	0.85	0.73	0.70	0.72	0.73	0.73	0.70	0.72	= (Current Q Rev - Last Q Rev) * 4 / Last Q S&M
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14	Core ARR Build
15	Beg Customer	2570	2835	3235	3510	3710	3945	4202	4483	4758	5041	5344	5689	6036
16	(+) New	335	460	375	315	350	371	403	405	421	449	500	513	525	= S&M / CAC * 1,000,000
17	(-) Churned	(70)	(60)	(100)	(115)	(115)	(114)	(122)	(130)	(138)	(146)	(155)	(165)	(175)	= Beg Customer Count * Churn
18	End Customers	2835	3235	3510	3710	3945	4202	4483	4758	5041	5344	5689	6036	6386
19	% Churned	(2.7%)	(2.1%)	(3.1%)	(3.3%)	(3.1%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)	(2.9%)
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22	Beg. Core ARR	$97	$114	$137	$157	$171	$188	$207	$228	$250	$273	$299	$327	$358
23	(+) New Logo	8	11	9	8	9	10	10	11	11	12	14	14	14	= New Customers * Avg ARR per New Land / 1,000,000
24	(+) Expansion	11	13	14	10	12
25	(-) Downsell	(1)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(2)
26	(-) Churned	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)
27	(+) Net Expansion	9	11	11	6	8	9	10	11	12	14	15	16	18	= (Beg ARR * % NRR) - Beg ARR
28	End. Core ARR	$114	$137	$157	$171	$188	$207	$228	$250	$273	$299	$327	$358	$390
29	% Churn	(0.9%)	(0.7%)	(1.1%)	(1.0%)	(0.9%)
30	% NRR	109.6%	109.8%	108.3%	103.8%	104.7%	105.0%	105.0%	105.0%	105.0%	105.0%	105.0%	105.0%	105.0%
31	Avg. ARR per New Land ($)	$23,881	$23,913	$24,000	$25,397	$25,714	$25,800	$26,000	$26,250	$26,500	$26,750	$27,000	$27,000	$27,000
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