Primary Target List

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G
1	Political Primary: Constituency Suitability Assessment
2	Target Shortlist
3	Subject to local knowledge
4	1=Perfect \| 2= Good \| 3 = OK \| 4 = Unlikely
5	We consider primaries to be suitable in seats where the Conservatives are still expected to win, but where
6	no one progressive party is far ahead of the others - i.e. where the progressive vote is split
7	You can see the latest voting predictions for your seat (new boundaries) here:			Election Maps UK		Also:	Stonehaven MRP
8	If one prog party is significantly ahead of the rest, we think it's best to push the tactical voting recommendation:						https://stopthetories.vote
9
10	We have adapted the primary model to be able to operate without the need for candidate participation.
11	This is in response to Labour and the Lib Dems barring their PPCs from participating. Our fantastic colleagues at East Wight Primary have developed
12	an excellent workaround involving running a single event closer to the election, collating and sharing the candidates' output and then inviting everyone
13	to one even (or several) to vote for their preferred candidate.
14			Our suitability rating Rated Oct 2023		A = Assess	Latest Situation
15	Constituency	Name	Election Maps UK	Electoral Calculus	Target seat?
16	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	1	2	Y
17	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	1	1	Y
18	Bicester and Woodstock	New	1	2	Y
19	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	3	3	No	Labour lead - and clearly ahead of rest. Recommend a tactical campaign for Labour
20	Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	Jo Churchill	3	4	No	Labour lead - and clearly ahead of rest. Recommend a tactical campaign for Labour
21	Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	Dr Dan Poulter	1	2	No	Labour lead - and clearly ahead of rest. Recommend a tactical campaign for Labour
22	Chelmsford	Vicky Ford	1	2	A	Conservatives now behind but all v close. Probably difficult to call tactically. Could be suitable
23	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	1	2	A	Mixed. EC show Labour win, but EM Tory win.
24	Christchurch	Sir Christopher Chope	2	2	A	Big challenge due to large Tory lead.
25	East Grinstead and Uckfield	New	1	2	Y
26	East Hampshire	Damian Hinds	2	1	Y
27	East Surrey	Claire Coutinho	1	2	Y	Very keen to see a primary here. Claire Coutinho (our energy minister) is linked to the oil-funded Policy Exchange lobby group
28	East Wiltshire	Danny Kruger	3	2	Y	Live primary
29	Ely and East Cambridgeshire	Lucy Frazer	2	2	A	Mixed. Lib Dem ahead in one poll, but Tory win in others. Primary potentially suitable
30	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	1	2	Y
31	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	2	2	Y	Primary set up and ready for local volunteers to lead - but ready to pivot to tactical campaign with Labour looking like the key challenger
32	Farnham and Bordon	New	3	1	Y
33	Frome and East Somerset	New	1	1	A	Mixed predictions: Labour / LidDem win. Unclear. Primary could resolve.
34	Godalming & Ash	Jeremy Hunt			No	Live primary - but switched to a tactical campaign with the Tories now behind
35	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	1	1	Y
36	Hinckley & Bosworth	Luke Evans	2	3	A	Now borderline - could be a straight tactical call for Labour
37	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	1	2	Y	Live primary
38	Isle of Wight East	New seat			Y	Live primary
39	Kenilworth and Southam	Sir Jeremy Wright	3	3	A	Labour pulling ahead in polls. Looking like tactical call for Labour
40	Maidenhead	Mrs Theresa May	1	3	Y
41	Melksham and Devizes	Michelle Donelan	3	2	Y	Live primary
42	Mid Buckinghamshire	Greg Smith	1	1	Y	Live primary
43	Mid Dorset and North Poole	Michael Tomlinson	3	3	A	Looking more likely to be tactical recommendation for Lib Dem
44	Mid Sussex	Mims Davies	2	2	Y	New primary about to launch
45	New Forest East	Dr Julian Lewis	2	2	Y
46	New Forest West	Sir Desmond Swayne	2	2	Y
47	Newton Abbot	Anne Marie Morris	1	1	Y	Live primary
48	North Cornwall	Scott Mann	3	3	A	Looking more likely to be tactical recommendation for Lib Dem
49	North Cotswolds	New	2	2	A	Possibly shift to tactical recommendation for Lib Dem - but prediction sites mixed
50	North Dorset	Simon Hoare	2	2	Y
51	North East Hampshire	Mr Ranil Jayawardena	2	1	Y	Very mixed across the prediction sites, but looks doable
52	North Herefordshire	Sir Bill Wiggin	2	2	Y
53	North West Essex	Kemi Badenoch	1	2	Y	Live primary
54	North West Hampshire	Kit Malthouse	2	3	Y
55	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	3	3	A
56	Runnymede and Weybridge	Dr Ben Spencer	2	3	Y
57	Salisbury	John Glen	3	3	A
58	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	1	2	Y
59	South Cotswolds	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	3	2	Y
60	South East Cornwall	Mrs Sheryll Murray	3	2	No	No longer suitable. Labour predicted to win, and far out ahead
61	South Shropshire	Philip Dunne	2	2	Y
62	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	New	1	No	A
63	Stratford-on-Avon	Nadhim Zahawi	2	1	Y
64	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	2	1	Y
65	Sussex Weald	Ms Nusrat Ghani	2	2	Y
66	Tewkesbury	Mr Laurence Robertson	1	1	Y
67	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	2	2	Y
68	Torbay	Kevin Foster	2	2	Y	In touch with a number of people. Would be easy for us to support - local.
69	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	2	2	Y
70	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	2	2	Y
71	Wells and Mendip Hills	James Heappey	3	2	Y	Discussing with a local group
72	West Worcestershire	Harriett Baldwin	2	2	Y
73	Witney	Robert Courts	2	2	Y
74	Wokingham	John Redwood	4	1	A	Needs local input - conflicting predictions
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