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Last update: 2 June 2022 (countries with >=9 total cases only)
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2022 monkeypox outbreak
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West African clade of monkeypox is endemic in Nigeria, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Cameroon. Hence, disease incidence in these countries do NOT count toward predicting a novel pandemic using this checklist.Note: As Monkeypox has now spread to non-endemic countries totaling > 15% of world population and GDP (excluding endemic countries), I will no longer be updating the numbers here. Please do not use this source for current numbers; it is out-of-date.
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CDC: "Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected. Each health department determines community spread differently based on local conditions."We will call "community spread" at least 10 total case, unless there is a clear known common source.
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Non-endemic CountriesConfirmedSuspectedTotalLast updateFirst confirmed casePopulation (millions)GDP (billions)Community spread?Population (millions, community spread)GDP (billions, community spread)
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Argentina2227 May 2022[133]27 May 2022[134]48.38389000
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Australia131320 May 2022[8]20 May 2022[33]25.691330125.691330
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Austria111122 May 2022[70][135]22 May 2022[70]8.91743318.917433
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Belgium525215 June 202219 May 2022[47]11.56521111.56521
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Bolivia1126 May 2022[137]000
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Brazil1161715 June 20229 June 2022212.614451212.61445
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Canada1583619415 June 202219 May 2022[140]38.011650138.011650
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Czech Republic5526 May 2022[141]24 May 2022[76]10.7245000
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Denmark101025 May 2022[142][143]23 May 2022[72][144]5.83135615.831356
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Ecuador1127 May 2022[145]00
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Finland1127 May 2022[89][146]27 May 2022[89]5.531269000
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France18318315 June 202220 May 2022[56]67.392630167.392630
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Germany33833815 June 202220 May 2022[55]83.243850183.243850
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Ghana181822 June 202231.0772.35131.0772.35
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Hungary12129.7515519.75155
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Ireland14145.045418.615.045418.6
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Israel161622 May 2022[149]21 May 2022[7]9.21740719.217407
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Italy484815 June 202219 May 2022[151]59.551890159.551890
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Mexico111125 June 2022128.910761128.91076
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Morocco1126 May 2022[152]00
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Netherlands959515 June 202220 May 2022[57]17.44914117.44914
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Poland121215 June 202210 June 2022[220]37.95594.2137.95594.2
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Portugal27627615 June 202218 May 2022[42]10.31229110.31229
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Slovenia2225 May 2022[155]24 May 2022[156][157]2.154000
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Spain58458415 June 202218 May 2022[159]47.351280147.351280
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Sudan1126 May 2022[152]00
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Sweden101015 June 202219 May 2022[161][162]10.38541110.38541
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Switzerland313115 June 202221 May 2022[63][164]8.6475218.64752
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United Arab Emirates131315 June 202224 May 2022[6][165]9.8935919.89359
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United Kingdom57457415 June 20226 May 2022[167]67.222760167.222760
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United States999915 June 202218 May 2022[169][170]329.5209501329.520950
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Sum (non-endemic countries with community spread)1235.4544613.15
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World population775384.75Fraction:16.5%52.6%
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Total population of endemic countries272Crosses threshold:WAHRWAHR
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15% of world population, excluding endemic countries
1122.1512.7125Checklist item marked?WAHR
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At least 15% of world GDP and 1 billion people in non-endemic countries where it's endemic/experiencing community spread.
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