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4 | Questions or Feedback? Submit your feedback or email our Partnerships team at info@covidactnow.org | ||
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6 | Warning | ||
7 | 1.1 is an old version. We recommended upgrading | ||
8 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S1l4E-mVdxJoczTkxAsDOQatuNujhW2hsuDmSkr4UJU/edit?usp=sharing | ||
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10 | The COVID Response Simulator is a modifiable SIER model that allows you to update and experiment with Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for your community, such as closing schools, restricting business activities, and canceling large events. Based on your inputs, this tool auto-generates data and graphs for the projected impact of these interventions, including estimated case numbers and hospitalizations. Covid Act Now is a fast-moving and independent 501c3 that aims to provide open-source data and intelligence tools for pandemic response. We are a multidisciplinary team of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders, united by common values, and working in partnership with the Georgetown University Center for Global Health Science and Security, Stanford University Clinical Excellence Research Center, and Grand Rounds. | ||
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12 | In the Location and Inputs Setup tab, you can modify different inputs for your location, including: • Population • Total cases • Total deaths • Hospital capacity (Total hospital beds, Total ICU beds) • R(t) (at Present, with 90% confidence interval) • Distribution across age demographics • Policy decisions that impact what is open and to what degree • The % of people that are wearing a mask and sheltering in place, and the efficacy of these actions | ||
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14 | As you modify these inputs, you will be able to see the projected future impact, across different scenarios, including: 1. No interventions (High speed scenario) 2. Social distancing (Moderate spread scenario) 3. Shelter-in-Place (Low spread scenario) 4. Estimated R0 scenario | ||
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16 | We show the following metrics for each scenario by date: • Effective R0 (Beta) • Beginning susceptible • New Infected • Current Infected • Recovered or Died • Ending Susceptible • Actual Hospitalized • Predicted Hospitalized (No intervention) • Cumulative Infected • Cumulative Deaths | ||
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18 | This spreadsheet Model is currently in beta. Please provide feedback on future features you would like to see implemented. | ||
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21 | Disclaimer: The information herein is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be misconstrued as medical or expert advice. There are many unknowns, and the author of this document makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the results obtained from the use of the information, and shall have no liability for the accuracy of the information and cannot be held liable for any third-party claims or losses of any damages. The information contained within does not constitute a confirmed offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any product or service, and should not be relied upon in connection with any investment decision or action. Author may, at any time, revise the information and without notice and makes no commitment to update this information. This model is only as good as the available data; and there is no historical precedent for what is happening — this is a novel virus and disease — and our understanding of COVID continues to evolve. The model’s limitations include but are not limited to: variables will change as our knowledge of COVID evolves. The model is not a node-based analysis. In other words, the model assumes everyone spreads the disease at the same rate. Reality is, of course, messier. Evidence suggests there may be some people who are “super-spreaders” and others who are not. Any user shall have the right to view the information, reproduce it, and share it for non-commercial purposes. | ||
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23 | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. | ||
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