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NC Final Model - Executive Summary for Housing Petition
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WORKBOOK OVERVIEW
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Purpose:
Housing affordability analysis for petition demonstrating crisis across all 50 U.S. states
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Methodology:
Compares adjusted median incomes (75% and 38% models) with HUD Fair Market Rents using the 1/3 income rule
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Data Sources:U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2024 (Income) & HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rents
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Coverage:50 states with 2BR and 3BR rent comparisons at two income levels
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Petition Focus:
Demonstrates affordability crisis worsens dramatically for lower-income households
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INCOME MODEL COMPARISON
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Metric75% Model (Working Class)38% Model (Lower Working Class)Change
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States with 2BR Gap (Need Subsidy)65044
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States with 3BR Gap (Need Subsidy)275023
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Average 2BR Subsidy Gap-$344.96$597.68$942.63
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Average 3BR Subsidy Gap$84.00$1,026.64$942.63
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Average Adjusted Income$61,699.50$27,764.78-$33,934.73
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KEY PETITION STATISTICS
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Total U.S. Population Covered:132,407,459
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Population Under Adjusted Income:97,981,520
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% of States Needing 2BR Subsidy (75% Model):12%
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% of States Needing 2BR Subsidy (38% Model):100%
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Max 2BR Subsidy Gap (75% Model):$1,109.90
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Max 2BR Subsidy Gap (38% Model):$2,064.76
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Worst State (75% Model):California
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Worst State (38% Model):California
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TOP 5 WORST STATES - 38% MODEL (2BR Gap)
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RankStateMonthly 2BR Subsidy Gap
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1California$2,064.76
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2Hawaii$1,651.76
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3New Hampshire$1,193.76
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4Connecticut$1,064.76
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5Massachusetts$1,030.26
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TOP 5 MOST AFFORDABLE STATES - 75% MODEL (2BR Gap)
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RankStateMonthly 2BR Gap (Negative = Affordable)
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1Utah-$1,093.54
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2North Dakota-$775.10
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3Maryland-$751.54
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4Missouri-$749.10
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5South Dakota-$731.10
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KEY FINDINGS FOR HOUSING PETITION
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At the 75% income level (working class), only 6 states have 2BR affordability gaps - housing appears manageable
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At the 38% income level (lower working class), ALL 50 STATES have 2BR affordability gaps - a nationwide crisis
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The average monthly subsidy needed jumps from a SURPLUS to a $598+ DEFICIT when targeting lower-income households
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California is the worst state in both models, requiring over $2,000/month in subsidies at the 38% level
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Even the 'best' states (Utah, North Dakota) need $180+/month subsidies at the 38% income level
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Family housing (3BR) is even worse - 27 states need subsidies at 75% level, ALL 50 at 38% level
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This data proves housing affordability is not just a coastal problem - it affects EVERY state
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PETITION CHARTS INCLUDED IN WORKBOOK
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SheetChartDescription
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Petition ChartsChart 1
2BR Subsidy Gap by State (38% Model) - Shows ALL states need subsidies
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Petition ChartsChart 2
3BR Subsidy Gap by State (38% Model) - Family housing crisis
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Petition ChartsChart 3
Affordable Rent vs Market Rent 2BR - Visual gap comparison
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Petition ChartsChart 4
Affordable Rent vs Market Rent 3BR - Family housing gap
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75% Model ChartsChart 5
2BR Subsidy Gap by State (75% Model) - Only 6 states with gaps
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75% Model ChartsChart 6
3BR Subsidy Gap by State (75% Model) - 27 states with gaps
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PETITION NARRATIVE
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Opening Statement:
"At the 75th percentile income level, only 6 states face housing affordability gaps. However, when we examine the bottom 38% of earners — those most in need of affordable housing — EVERY SINGLE STATE IN AMERICA has an affordability crisis."
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Key Data Point:
"The average working-class family in the bottom 38% of earners needs $598/month in subsidies just to afford a basic 2-bedroom apartment."
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Worst Case:
"In California, this gap reaches over $2,000 per month — that's $24,000+ per year that low-income families simply cannot afford."
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Call to Action:
"This is not a regional problem. This is a national housing emergency requiring immediate federal, state, and local action."
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DATA SOURCES & METHODOLOGY
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Income Data:U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2024, Tables S1901 and B19001
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Rent Data:HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rent Documentation System
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75% Model:
Median of bottom 75% earners (excludes top quartile) - represents working class
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38% Model:
Estimated 38th percentile (~45% of 75% adjusted income) - represents lower working class
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Affordability Rule:1/3 Rule - Housing is affordable if rent ≤ 33% of monthly income
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Subsidy Gap:
Market Rent minus Affordable Rent (positive = needs subsidy, negative = affordable)
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