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Management GuidanceAssumptionsFixed
White cells are formulas based on guidance/assumptions
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Management is guiding for 8% decline from existing wells, but has identified >100 infill drilling and step out opportunities, with 48-54 available well slots
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Have also identified opportunities for workovers and electronic submersible pump instillation on existing wellbores
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This model assumes capex is invested into these opportunities starting around the end of 2025
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2H25 (based on run rate not actual numbers for final 2 quarters)
2026
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BearBaseBullBearBaseBull
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BOE/D 45,000 50,000 55,000 41,000 47,000 53,000
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BOE/Y 16,425,000 18,250,000 20,075,000 14,965,000 17,155,000 19,345,000
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Oil Cut (%)81%82%83%81%82%83%
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Natural Gas Cut (%)19%18%17%19%18%17%
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Oil Cut (in BOE) 13,304,250 14,965,000 16,662,250 12,121,650 14,067,100 16,056,350
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Natural Gas Cut (in BOE) 3,120,750 3,285,000 3,412,750 2,843,350 3,087,900 3,288,650
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Brent Crude Price (per barrel) $ 60.00 $ 68.00 $ 76.00 $ 59.00 $ 67.00 $ 75.00
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Natural Gas Price (per mmbtu) $ 2.85 $ 3.30 $ 3.75 $ 2.85 $ 3.30 $ 3.75
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Oil Revenue $ 798,255,000 $ 1,017,620,000 $ 1,266,331,000 $ 715,177,350 $ 942,495,700 $ 1,204,226,250
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Gas Revenue $ 51,585,998 $ 62,874,900 $ 74,227,313 $ 47,000,576 $ 59,102,406 $ 71,528,138
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Total Revenue $ 849,840,998 $ 1,080,494,900 $ 1,340,558,313 $ 762,177,926 $ 1,001,598,106 $ 1,275,754,388
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Opex (per BOE) $ 17.00 $ 15.25 $ 13.50 $ 16.50 $ 15.00 $ 13.50
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Opex Total $ 279,225,000 $ 278,312,500 $ 271,012,500 $ 246,922,500 $ 257,325,000 $ 261,157,500
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G&A (per BOE) $ 4.50 $ 4.00 $ 3.50 $ 3.30 $ 2.90 $ 2.50
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G&A (annual) $ 73,912,500 $ 73,000,000 $ 70,262,500 $ 49,384,500 $ 49,749,500 $ 48,362,500
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Royalty Rate16.40%16.40%16.40%16.40%16.40%16.40%
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Royalties $ 139,373,924 $ 177,201,164 $ 219,851,563 $ 124,997,180 $ 164,262,089 $ 209,223,720
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Corporate Income Tax Rate (state & fed)
29.84%29.84%29.84%29.84%29.84%29.84%
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Ad Valorem Taxes (1%) $ 8,498,410 $ 10,804,949 $ 13,405,583 $ 7,621,779 $ 10,015,981 $ 12,757,544
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EBITDA $ 348,831,164 $ 541,176,287 $ 766,026,166 $ 243,251,966 $ 420,245,536 $ 634,253,124
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Income Taxes $ 104,091,219 $ 161,487,004 $ 228,582,208 $ 72,586,387 $ 125,401,268 $ 189,261,132
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Capex (annual) $ 70,000,000 $ 80,000,000 $ 90,000,000 $ 90,000,000 $ 100,000,000 $ 110,000,000
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Free Cash Flow $ 174,739,945 $ 299,689,283 $ 447,443,958 $ 170,665,580 $ 294,844,268 $ 444,991,992
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Shares Outstanding (currently 99,340,000)
 109,000,000 104,000,000 99,340,000 109,000,000 102,000,000 96,000,000
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FCF/share $ 1.60 $ 2.88 $ 4.50 $ 1.57 $ 2.89 $ 4.64
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FCF Multiple910.512910.512
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Implied Stock Price $ 14.43 $ 30.26 $ 54.05 $ 14.09 $ 30.35 $ 55.62
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 $ 1,017,620,000.00 $ 1,266,331,000.00
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 $ 10,840,500.00 $ 12,797,812.50
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 $ 1,028,460,500.00 $ 1,279,128,812.50
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 $ 278,312,500.00 $ 271,012,500.00
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 $ 750,148,000.00 $ 1,008,116,312.50
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90,000,00090,000,000
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 $ 8.33 $ 11.20
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