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1 | FairVote’s projections for 2018 U.S. House races are based entirely on national and district-level election results from the three most recent Federal elections. The projected result in each district (Column N) is equal to the district’s partisanship (Column G), plus a projection for the candidates’ performance over a generic candidate of their party and incumbency status (Column L), plus the impact of the national party preference and average incumbency bump for the election (Column M). Projected performance vs. partisanship is based on current incumbents’ results in previous contests, adjusted for the national partisan swing of that election and their status as an incumbent, challenger, or candidate for an open seat. All values are in terms of voteshare for the Democratic candidate. See the "Methodology" tab for a full explanation. | 2018 High Confidence Projections | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | FairVote’s projections for 2018 U.S. House races are based entirely on national and district-level election results from the three most recent Federal elections. The projected result in each district (Column N) is equal to the district’s partisanship (Column G), plus a projection for the candidates’ performance over a generic candidate of their party and incumbency status (Column L), plus the impact of the national party preference and average incumbency bump for the election (Column M). Projected performance vs. partisanship is based on current incumbents’ results in previous contests, adjusted for the national partisan swing of that election and their status as an incumbent, challenger, or candidate for an open seat. All values are in terms of voteshare for the Democratic candidate. See the "Methodology" tab for a full explanation. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6 | District Partisanship | + | 2016 POAC Projection | + | Partisan Swing and Incumbency Bump Impact | = | Projected Dem. % | |||||||||||||||||||
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8 | Assumptions* | 2018 Competition Ratings | Full Projections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 2018 National Party Preference (Dem. %) | 50.0% | Safe Republican: | 197 | Safe Democratic: | 163 | Republican Seats: | 244 | ||||||||||||||||||
10 | 2018 Average Incumbency Bump | 3.3% | Likely Republican: | 18 | Likely Democratic: | 11 | Democratic Seats: | 191 | ||||||||||||||||||
11 | *Our projections assume an even split in national party preference, and an incumbency advantage equal to the observed advantage in 2016. In the "Make your own projections" tab you can adjust the values in the orange cells above to automatically generate new projections for different scenarios. | Lean Republican: | 15 | Lean Democratic: | 10 | If No Incumbents | ||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Toss Up (Slight R): | 14 | Toss Up (Slight D): | 7 | Republican Seats: | 237 | ||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Total R: | 244 | Total D: | 191 | Democratic Seats: | 198 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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15 | Last Updated: | 02/20/2017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | State | CD | Incumbent | Party | Year First Elected | District Partisanship (Dem. %) | Performance over Average Candidate (POAC) | 2018 POAC Projection (Dem. %) | Partisan Swing and Incumbency Bump Impact (Dem. %) | Projected Dem. % | High-Confidence Projections | Full Projections | Competition Ratings | Adjusted 2016 Winning % | Adjusted 2014 Winning % | Adjusted 2012 Winning % | Adjusted 2010 Winning % | |||||||||
17 | 2016 | 2014 | 2012 | Average | ||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Alabama | 1 | Bradley Byrne | (R) | 2013 | 34.3% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 0.50% | -2.81% | 31.9% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 96.2% | 63.6% | 70.7% | 0% | ||||||||
19 | Alabama | 2 | Martha Roby | (R) | 2010 | 33.0% | -16.2% | -2.5% | -5.8% | -8.2% | 9.67% | -2.81% | 39.9% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 50.8% | 62.7% | 61.2% | 51.8% | ||||||
20 | Alabama | 3 | Mike Rogers | (R) | 2002 | 32.5% | -4.3% | -3.2% | -5.9% | -4.5% | 3.75% | -2.81% | 33.4% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 63.2% | 61.6% | 61.6% | 51.2% | ||||||
21 | Alabama | 4 | Robert Aderholt | (R) | 1996 | 17.5% | -11.0% | -11.0% | 9.34% | -2.81% | 24.0% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 96.2% | 95.3% | 71.6% | 91.7% | ||||||||
22 | Alabama | 5 | Mo Brooks | (R) | 2010 | 32.3% | -4.8% | -5.2% | -5.0% | 4.14% | -2.81% | 33.6% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 63.0% | 95.3% | 62.5% | 54.1% | |||||||
23 | Alabama | 6 | Gary Palmer | (R) | 2014 | 26.6% | -2.6% | -2.4% | -2.5% | 2.19% | -2.81% | 26.0% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 70.8% | 74.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
24 | Alabama | 7 | Terri Sewell | (D) | 2010 | 69.6% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.13% | 2.81% | 72.2% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 99.1% | 69.4% | 76.2% | ||||||||
25 | Alaska | AL | Don Young | (R) | 1973 | 41.4% | -4.2% | -8.2% | 7.9% | -1.5% | 2.18% | -2.81% | 40.7% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 54.5% | 50.8% | 66.6% | 61.0% | ||||||
26 | Arizona | 1 | Tom O'Halleran | (D) | 2016 | 48.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.90% | 0.50% | 49.8% | No projection | Toss Up-R | Toss Up | 54.4% | 52.6% | 51.9% | 46.8% | ||||||||
27 | Arizona | 2 | Martha McSally | (R) | 2014 | 51.4% | 4.6% | -1.8% | 1.4% | -2.52% | -2.81% | 46.1% | No projection | Lean R | Lean R | 53.2% | 50.9% | 50.4% | 0.0% | |||||||
28 | Arizona | 3 | Raul Grijalva | (D) | 2002 | 63.9% | -5.4% | -9.3% | -7.3% | -6.24% | 2.81% | 60.5% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 54.9% | 54.6% | 52.5% | |||||||
29 | Arizona | 4 | Paul Gosar | (R) | 2010 | 28.9% | -3.5% | -1.7% | -3.4% | -2.9% | 2.65% | -2.81% | 28.7% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 67.7% | 68.4% | 67.7% | 53.9% | ||||||
30 | Arizona | 5 | Andy Biggs | (R) | 2016 | 38.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.30% | -0.50% | 37.6% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 63.6% | 69.6% | 67.2% | 0.0% | ||||||||
31 | Arizona | 6 | David Schweikert | (R) | 2010 | 44.0% | 2.3% | -2.1% | 6.2% | 2.1% | -1.86% | -2.81% | 39.3% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 58.3% | 60.2% | 62.3% | 55.3% | ||||||
32 | Arizona | 7 | Ruben Gallego | (D) | 2014 | 73.6% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -0.92% | 2.81% | 75.4% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 72.5% | 101.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
33 | Arizona | 8 | Trent Franks | (R) | 2002 | 38.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.23% | -2.81% | 35.4% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 96.2% | 95.3% | 61.9% | 59.3% | ||||||||
34 | Arizona | 9 | Kyrsten Sinema | (D) | 2012 | 57.1% | 1.1% | 5.5% | -6.9% | -0.1% | 0.30% | 2.81% | 60.2% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 58.2% | 55.8% | 50.2% | 0.0% | ||||||
35 | Arkansas | 1 | Rick Crawford | (R) | 2010 | 31.6% | -2.8% | -12.0% | -7.4% | 6.30% | -2.81% | 35.0% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 96.2% | 61.5% | 56.5% | 50.6% | |||||||
36 | Arkansas | 2 | J. French Hill | (R) | 2014 | 43.6% | 1.1% | -5.4% | -2.2% | 0.45% | -2.81% | 41.2% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 57.5% | 52.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
37 | Arkansas | 3 | Steve Womack | (R) | 2010 | 33.4% | N/A | -2.81% | 30.5% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 96.2% | 95.3% | 97.5% | 68.6% | ||||||||||
38 | Arkansas | 4 | Bruce Westerman | (R) | 2014 | 32.5% | -11.0% | -11.0% | 9.36% | -2.81% | 39.1% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 96.2% | 53.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
39 | California | 1 | Doug La Malfa | (R) | 2012 | 39.1% | -5.6% | -3.8% | -1.5% | -3.6% | 3.78% | -2.81% | 40.1% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 55.3% | 56.4% | 59.4% | 0.0% | ||||||
40 | California | 2 | Jared Huffman | (D) | 2012 | 71.8% | 2.3% | 5.1% | -2.6% | 1.6% | 1.59% | 2.81% | 76.2% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 74.1% | 74.1% | 69.2% | 0.0% | ||||||
41 | California | 3 | John Garamendi | (D) | 2009 | 55.3% | 1.3% | -1.8% | -7.5% | -2.7% | -0.91% | 2.81% | 57.1% | D | Safe D | Likely D | 56.6% | 51.9% | 47.7% | 60.2% | ||||||
42 | California | 4 | Tom McClintock | (R) | 2008 | 41.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.38% | -2.81% | 38.4% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 58.9% | 95.3% | 58.6% | 57.8% | |||||||
43 | California | 5 | Mike Thompson | (D) | 1998 | 71.4% | 2.7% | -3.4% | -0.4% | 0.99% | 2.81% | 75.2% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 74.1% | 99.1% | 68.0% | 66.2% | |||||||
44 | California | 6 | Doris Matsui | (D) | 2005 | 71.4% | 1.3% | 3.4% | -2.8% | 0.6% | 0.76% | 2.81% | 74.9% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 72.6% | 71.8% | 68.6% | 73.3% | ||||||
45 | California | 7 | Ami Bera | (D) | 2012 | 54.7% | -6.3% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.4% | -3.35% | 2.81% | 54.1% | No projection | Lean D | Lean D | 48.4% | 49.5% | 54.2% | 0.0% | ||||||
46 | California | 8 | Paul Cook | (R) | 2012 | 41.4% | -0.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | -0.77% | -2.81% | 37.8% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 58.5% | 63.0% | 102.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
47 | California | 9 | Jerry McNerney | (D) | 2006 | 58.3% | -3.7% | -5.4% | -9.2% | -6.1% | -4.35% | 2.81% | 56.7% | D | Safe D | Likely D | 54.6% | 51.5% | 49.1% | 49.9% | ||||||
48 | California | 10 | Jeff Denham | (R) | 2010 | 50.5% | -1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.51% | -2.81% | 48.2% | No projection | Toss Up-R | Toss Up | 47.9% | 51.5% | 50.2% | 60.9% | ||||||
49 | California | 11 | Mark DeSaulnier | (D) | 2014 | 73.4% | -4.1% | 2.3% | -0.9% | -2.10% | 2.81% | 74.1% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 69.3% | 69.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
50 | California | 12 | Nancy Pelosi | (D) | 1987 | 87.7% | -1.5% | -9.1% | -5.3% | -4.49% | 2.81% | 86.0% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 82.4% | 78.6% | 83.4% | |||||||
51 | California | 13 | Barbara Lee | (D) | 1998 | 89.3% | -1.2% | 0.3% | -0.5% | -0.73% | 2.81% | 91.3% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 88.0% | 87.6% | 93.5% | 88.0% | |||||||
52 | California | 14 | Jackie Speier | (D) | 2007.5 | 78.3% | -0.2% | 2.5% | -5.9% | -1.2% | -0.69% | 2.81% | 80.4% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 78.1% | 75.8% | 72.4% | 76.7% | ||||||
53 | California | 15 | Eric Swalwell | (D) | 2012 | 71.8% | -0.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | -0.14% | 2.81% | 74.5% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 71.0% | 68.9% | 102.5% | 0.0% | |||||||
54 | California | 16 | Jim Costa | (D) | 2004 | 59.8% | -4.5% | -7.8% | -8.8% | -7.0% | -5.12% | 2.81% | 57.4% | No projection | Safe D | Likely D | 55.3% | 49.9% | 50.9% | 51.0% | ||||||
55 | California | 17 | Rho Khanna | (D) | 2016 | 75.7% | 0.00% | 0.50% | 76.1% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 103.8% | 100.0% | 73.5% | 67.6% | ||||||||||
56 | California | 18 | Anna Eshoo | (D) | 1992 | 75.6% | -7.2% | -0.8% | -11.6% | -6.5% | -5.77% | 2.81% | 72.6% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 68.4% | 66.9% | 64.0% | 70.6% | ||||||
57 | California | 19 | Zoe Lofgren | (D) | 1994 | 74.7% | -3.5% | -7.9% | -5.7% | -3.90% | 2.81% | 73.6% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 71.2% | 99.1% | 66.7% | 72.9% | |||||||
58 | California | 20 | Jimmy Panetta | (D) | 2016 | 72.6% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -0.19% | 0.50% | 72.9% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 71.3% | 100.0% | 74.1% | 69.1% | ||||||||
59 | California | 21 | David Valadao | (R) | 2012 | 56.7% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 16.5% | 10.9% | -8.86% | -2.81% | 45.0% | No projection | Lean R | Lean R | 52.9% | 53.2% | 59.8% | 0.0% | ||||||
60 | California | 22 | Devin Nunes | (R) | 2002 | 44.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 6.5% | -6.01% | -2.81% | 35.4% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 63.8% | 67.4% | 59.4% | 91.7% | ||||||
61 | California | 23 | Kevin McCarthy | (R) | 2006 | 38.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | -3.29% | -2.81% | 31.9% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 65.4% | 70.2% | 97.5% | 91.7% | |||||||
62 | California | 24 | Salud Carbajal | (D) | 2016 | 59.1% | -5.1% | -5.1% | -0.77% | 0.50% | 58.8% | No projection | Safe D | Safe D | 53.9% | 51.9% | 55.1% | 60.6% | ||||||||
63 | California | 25 | Steve Knight | (R) | 2014 | 52.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.39% | -2.81% | 48.1% | No projection | Toss Up-R | Toss Up | 49.3% | 98.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
64 | California | 26 | Julia Brownley | (D) | 2012 | 59.9% | -2.3% | -2.7% | -9.2% | -4.7% | -3.20% | 2.81% | 59.5% | No projection | Safe D | Safe D | 57.6% | 50.5% | 50.7% | 0.0% | ||||||
65 | California | 27 | Judy Chu | (D) | 2009 | 67.8% | -3.1% | -3.3% | -10.3% | -5.6% | -3.90% | 2.81% | 66.7% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 64.6% | 58.5% | 57.5% | 70.3% | ||||||
66 | California | 28 | Adam Schiff | (D) | 2000 | 73.9% | 1.4% | -3.9% | -1.3% | 0.04% | 2.81% | 76.7% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 75.2% | 99.1% | 70.0% | 66.2% | |||||||
67 | California | 29 | Tony Cardenas | (D) | 2012 | 79.4% | -2.5% | -2.5% | -2.16% | 2.81% | 80.0% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 73.7% | 98.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
68 | California | 30 | Brad Sherman | (D) | 1982 | 70.7% | -0.8% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.48% | 2.81% | 73.0% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 69.9% | 64.8% | 93.5% | 74.9% | |||||||
69 | California | 31 | Pete Aguilar | (D) | 2014 | 59.5% | -6.2% | -2.7% | -4.5% | -4.53% | 2.81% | 57.8% | No projection | Safe D | Likely D | 53.3% | 53.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
70 | California | 32 | Grace Napolitano | (D) | 1998 | 68.4% | -5.6% | -9.2% | -7.4% | -6.29% | 2.81% | 64.9% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 58.8% | 59.2% | 72.8% | |||||||
71 | California | 33 | Ted Lieu | (D) | 2014 | 69.6% | -5.9% | 1.2% | -2.4% | -3.54% | 2.81% | 68.9% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 63.7% | 61.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
72 | California | 34 | Jimmy Gomez | (D) | 1992 | 85.4% | -6.3% | -6.3% | -5.34% | 2.81% | 82.9% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 99.1% | 79.1% | 83.1% | ||||||||
73 | California | 35 | Norma Torres | (D) | 2014 | 69.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.22% | 2.81% | 72.4% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 69.6% | 101.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
74 | California | 36 | Raul Ruiz | (D) | 2012 | 53.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.00% | 2.81% | 60.2% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 59.3% | 53.3% | 55.4% | 0.0% | ||||||
75 | California | 37 | Karen Bass | (D) | 2010 | 87.0% | -0.7% | -7.1% | -3.9% | -3.32% | 2.81% | 86.5% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 83.4% | 79.9% | 89.9% | |||||||
76 | California | 38 | Linda Sanchez | (D) | 2002 | 68.8% | -1.1% | -5.8% | -7.7% | -4.8% | -2.83% | 2.81% | 68.7% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 67.7% | 58.2% | 61.0% | 65.3% | ||||||
77 | California | 39 | Ed Royce | (R) | 1992 | 53.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | -6.57% | -2.81% | 43.9% | No projection | Safe R | Likely R | 53.4% | 63.9% | 55.3% | 58.5% | ||||||
78 | California | 40 | Lucille Roybal-Allard | (D) | 1992 | 83.7% | N/A | 2.81% | 86.5% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 97.2% | 99.1% | 93.5% | 76.5% | ||||||||||
79 | California | 41 | Mark Takano | (D) | 2012 | 62.9% | -0.7% | -4.9% | -5.9% | -3.8% | -2.21% | 2.81% | 63.5% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 62.2% | 55.8% | 57.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
80 | California | 42 | Ken Calvert | (R) | 1992 | 43.0% | -2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.59% | -2.81% | 40.7% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 55.0% | 61.1% | 58.1% | 47.3% | ||||||
81 | California | 43 | Maxine Waters | (D) | 1990 | 79.8% | -6.5% | -6.9% | -6.7% | -5.62% | 2.81% | 77.0% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 73.3% | 70.1% | 93.5% | 78.6% | |||||||
82 | California | 44 | Nanette Diaz Barragan | (D) | 2016 | 84.3% | 0.00% | 0.50% | 84.8% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 100.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||
83 | California | 45 | Mimi Walters | (R) | 2014 | 51.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | -5.22% | -2.81% | 43.6% | No projection | Safe R | Likely R | 54.8% | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
84 | California | 46 | Lou Correa | (D) | 2016 | 68.2% | 0.00% | 0.50% | 68.6% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 100.5% | 59.7% | 63.9% | 57.4% | ||||||||||
85 | California | 47 | Alan Lowenthal | (D) | 2012 | 64.8% | -3.8% | -4.2% | -10.2% | -6.1% | -4.38% | 2.81% | 63.2% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 60.9% | 55.1% | 54.6% | 0.0% | ||||||
86 | California | 48 | Dana Rohrabacher | (R) | 1988 | 49.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 8.3% | 4.7% | -3.89% | -2.81% | 43.1% | R | Safe R | Likely R | 54.5% | 59.5% | 58.5% | 53.9% | ||||||
87 | California | 49 | Darrell Issa | (R) | 2000 | 52.7% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 8.4% | 2.6% | -1.03% | -2.81% | 48.9% | No projection | Toss Up-R | Toss Up | 46.5% | 55.5% | 55.7% | 58.3% | ||||||
88 | California | 50 | Duncan D. Hunter | (R) | 2008 | 41.5% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 3.6% | -2.23% | -2.81% | 36.4% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 59.7% | 66.5% | 65.2% | 58.0% | ||||||
89 | California | 51 | Juan Vargas | (D) | 2012 | 73.5% | -3.5% | -0.4% | -4.0% | -2.6% | -2.51% | 2.81% | 73.7% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 70.0% | 67.9% | 69.5% | 0.0% | ||||||
90 | California | 52 | Scott Peters | (D) | 2012 | 60.2% | -6.5% | -0.5% | -6.5% | -4.5% | -4.49% | 2.81% | 58.5% | No projection | Safe D | Safe D | 53.7% | 50.7% | 53.7% | 0.0% | ||||||
91 | California | 53 | Susan Davis | (D) | 2000 | 66.4% | -2.2% | -2.6% | -11.5% | -5.4% | -3.49% | 2.81% | 65.7% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 64.2% | 58.0% | 54.9% | 64.0% | ||||||
92 | Colorado | 1 | Diana DeGette | (D) | 1996 | 71.9% | -3.6% | 0.4% | -6.5% | -3.2% | -2.88% | 2.81% | 71.8% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 68.2% | 68.6% | 65.3% | 69.4% | ||||||
93 | Colorado | 2 | Open Seat (Jared Polis) | (D) | 2008 | 59.6% | -1.9% | -1.4% | -7.0% | N/A | 0.00% | 59.6% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 57.7% | 55.9% | 52.6% | 59.5% | |||||||
94 | Colorado | 3 | Scott Tipton | (R) | 2010 | 43.0% | -3.3% | 2.3% | -3.0% | -1.4% | 1.84% | -2.81% | 42.0% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 53.7% | 57.2% | 54.0% | 53.0% | ||||||
95 | Colorado | 4 | Ken Buck | (R) | 2014 | 37.4% | 0.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | -1.36% | -2.81% | 33.2% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 63.0% | 67.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
96 | Colorado | 5 | Doug Lamborn | (R) | 2006 | 37.0% | 0.0% | -7.2% | -3.6% | 1.52% | -2.81% | 35.7% | R | Safe R | Safe R | 63.1% | 55.1% | 97.5% | 60.9% | |||||||
97 | Colorado | 6 | Mike Coffman | (R) | 2008 | 53.4% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | -2.50% | -2.81% | 48.1% | No projection | Toss Up-R | Toss Up | 50.6% | 50.0% | 48.6% | 59.3% | ||||||
98 | Colorado | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | (D) | 2006 | 55.0% | 0.4% | -1.2% | -4.7% | -1.9% | -0.82% | 2.81% | 56.9% | D | Safe D | Likely D | 55.3% | 54.2% | 50.2% | 55.4% | ||||||
99 | Connecticut | 1 | John Larson | (D) | 1998 | 60.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.07% | 2.81% | 65.4% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 62.7% | 62.5% | 65.0% | 61.5% | ||||||
100 | Connecticut | 2 | Joe Courtney | (D) | 2006 | 50.4% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.78% | 2.81% | 63.0% | D | Safe D | Safe D | 62.5% | 62.8% | 63.4% | 60.0% | ||||||