Monopoly Politics 2018 Old
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FairVote’s projections for 2018 U.S. House races are based entirely on national and district-level election results from the three most recent Federal elections. The projected result in each district (Column N) is equal to the district’s partisanship (Column G), plus a projection for the candidates’ performance over a generic candidate of their party and incumbency status (Column L), plus the impact of the national party preference and average incumbency bump for the election (Column M). Projected performance vs. partisanship is based on current incumbents’ results in previous contests, adjusted for the national partisan swing of that election and their status as an incumbent, challenger, or candidate for an open seat. All values are in terms of voteshare for the Democratic candidate. See the "Methodology" tab for a full explanation.2018 High Confidence Projections
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FairVote’s projections for 2018 U.S. House races are based entirely on national and district-level election results from the three most recent Federal elections. The projected result in each district (Column N) is equal to the district’s partisanship (Column G), plus a projection for the candidates’ performance over a generic candidate of their party and incumbency status (Column L), plus the impact of the national party preference and average incumbency bump for the election (Column M). Projected performance vs. partisanship is based on current incumbents’ results in previous contests, adjusted for the national partisan swing of that election and their status as an incumbent, challenger, or candidate for an open seat. All values are in terms of voteshare for the Democratic candidate. See the "Methodology" tab for a full explanation.
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District Partisanship+2016 POAC Projection+Partisan Swing and
Incumbency Bump Impact
= Projected Dem. %
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Assumptions*2018 Competition RatingsFull Projections
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2018 National Party Preference (Dem. %)50.0%Safe Republican:197Safe Democratic:163
Republican Seats:
244
10
2018 Average Incumbency Bump3.3%
Likely Republican:
18Likely Democratic:11
Democratic Seats:
191
11
*Our projections assume an even split in national party preference, and an incumbency advantage equal to the observed advantage in 2016. In the "Make your own projections" tab you can adjust the values in the orange cells above to automatically generate new projections for different scenarios.
Lean Republican:
15Lean Democratic:10If No Incumbents
12
Toss Up (Slight R):
14Toss Up (Slight D):7
Republican Seats:
237
13
Total R:244Total D:191
Democratic Seats:
198
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Last Updated:
02/20/2017
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StateCDIncumbentPartyYear First ElectedDistrict Partisanship (Dem. %)Performance over Average Candidate (POAC)2018 POAC Projection (Dem. %)Partisan Swing and Incumbency Bump Impact (Dem. %)Projected Dem. %High-Confidence ProjectionsFull
Projections
Competition RatingsAdjusted 2016 Winning %Adjusted 2014 Winning %Adjusted 2012 Winning %Adjusted 2010 Winning %
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201620142012Average
18
Alabama1Bradley Byrne(R)201334.3%-0.6%-0.6%0.50%-2.81%31.9%RSafe RSafe R96.2%63.6%70.7%0%
19
Alabama2Martha Roby(R)201033.0%-16.2%-2.5%-5.8%-8.2%9.67%-2.81%39.9%RSafe RSafe R50.8%62.7%61.2%51.8%
20
Alabama3Mike Rogers(R)200232.5%-4.3%-3.2%-5.9%-4.5%3.75%-2.81%33.4%RSafe RSafe R63.2%61.6%61.6%51.2%
21
Alabama4Robert Aderholt(R)199617.5%-11.0%-11.0%9.34%-2.81%24.0%RSafe RSafe R96.2%95.3%71.6%91.7%
22
Alabama5Mo Brooks(R)201032.3%-4.8%-5.2%-5.0%4.14%-2.81%33.6%RSafe RSafe R63.0%95.3%62.5%54.1%
23
Alabama6Gary Palmer(R)201426.6%-2.6%-2.4%-2.5%2.19%-2.81%26.0%RSafe RSafe R70.8%74.4%0.0%0.0%
24
Alabama7Terri Sewell(D)201069.6%-0.2%-0.2%-0.13%2.81%72.2%DSafe DSafe D97.2%99.1%69.4%76.2%
25
AlaskaALDon Young(R)197341.4%-4.2%-8.2%7.9%-1.5%2.18%-2.81%40.7%RSafe RSafe R54.5%50.8%66.6%61.0%
26
Arizona1Tom O'Halleran(D)201648.4%6.0%6.0%0.90%0.50%49.8%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up54.4%52.6%51.9%46.8%
27
Arizona2Martha McSally(R)201451.4%4.6%-1.8%1.4%-2.52%-2.81%46.1%No projectionLean RLean R53.2%50.9%50.4%0.0%
28
Arizona3Raul Grijalva(D)200263.9%-5.4%-9.3%-7.3%-6.24%2.81%60.5%DSafe DSafe D97.2%54.9%54.6%52.5%
29
Arizona4Paul Gosar(R)201028.9%-3.5%-1.7%-3.4%-2.9%2.65%-2.81%28.7%RSafe RSafe R67.7%68.4%67.7%53.9%
30
Arizona5Andy Biggs(R)201638.4%2.0%2.0%-0.30%-0.50%37.6%RSafe RSafe R63.6%69.6%67.2%0.0%
31
Arizona6David Schweikert(R)201044.0%2.3%-2.1%6.2%2.1%-1.86%-2.81%39.3%RSafe RSafe R58.3%60.2%62.3%55.3%
32
Arizona7Ruben Gallego(D)201473.6%-1.1%-1.1%-0.92%2.81%75.4%DSafe DSafe D72.5%101.9%0.0%0.0%
33
Arizona8Trent Franks(R)200238.4%0.3%0.3%-0.23%-2.81%35.4%RSafe RSafe R96.2%95.3%61.9%59.3%
34
Arizona9Kyrsten Sinema(D)201257.1%1.1%5.5%-6.9%-0.1%0.30%2.81%60.2%DSafe DSafe D58.2%55.8%50.2%0.0%
35
Arkansas1Rick Crawford(R)201031.6%-2.8%-12.0%-7.4%6.30%-2.81%35.0%RSafe RSafe R96.2%61.5%56.5%50.6%
36
Arkansas2J. French Hill(R)201443.6%1.1%-5.4%-2.2%0.45%-2.81%41.2%RSafe RSafe R57.5%52.4%0.0%0.0%
37
Arkansas3Steve Womack(R)201033.4%N/A-2.81%30.5%RSafe RSafe R96.2%95.3%97.5%68.6%
38
Arkansas4Bruce Westerman(R)201432.5%-11.0%-11.0%9.36%-2.81%39.1%RSafe RSafe R96.2%53.9%0.0%0.0%
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California1Doug La Malfa(R)201239.1%-5.6%-3.8%-1.5%-3.6%3.78%-2.81%40.1%RSafe RSafe R55.3%56.4%59.4%0.0%
40
California2Jared Huffman(D)201271.8%2.3%5.1%-2.6%1.6%1.59%2.81%76.2%DSafe DSafe D74.1%74.1%69.2%0.0%
41
California3John Garamendi(D)200955.3%1.3%-1.8%-7.5%-2.7%-0.91%2.81%57.1%DSafe DLikely D56.6%51.9%47.7%60.2%
42
California4Tom McClintock(R)200841.6%0.5%0.2%0.4%-0.38%-2.81%38.4%RSafe RSafe R58.9%95.3%58.6%57.8%
43
California5Mike Thompson(D)199871.4%2.7%-3.4%-0.4%0.99%2.81%75.2%DSafe DSafe D74.1%99.1%68.0%66.2%
44
California6Doris Matsui(D)200571.4%1.3%3.4%-2.8%0.6%0.76%2.81%74.9%DSafe DSafe D72.6%71.8%68.6%73.3%
45
California7Ami Bera(D)201254.7%-6.3%-0.5%-0.4%-2.4%-3.35%2.81%54.1%No projectionLean DLean D48.4%49.5%54.2%0.0%
46
California8Paul Cook(R)201241.4%-0.1%4.1%2.0%-0.77%-2.81%37.8%RSafe RSafe R58.5%63.0%102.0%0.0%
47
California9Jerry McNerney(D)200658.3%-3.7%-5.4%-9.2%-6.1%-4.35%2.81%56.7%DSafe DLikely D54.6%51.5%49.1%49.9%
48
California10Jeff Denham(R)201050.5%-1.6%1.3%0.7%0.1%0.51%-2.81%48.2%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up47.9%51.5%50.2%60.9%
49
California11Mark DeSaulnier(D)201473.4%-4.1%2.3%-0.9%-2.10%2.81%74.1%DSafe DSafe D69.3%69.2%0.0%0.0%
50
California12Nancy Pelosi(D)198787.7%-1.5%-9.1%-5.3%-4.49%2.81%86.0%DSafe DSafe D97.2%82.4%78.6%83.4%
51
California13Barbara Lee(D)199889.3%-1.2%0.3%-0.5%-0.73%2.81%91.3%DSafe DSafe D88.0%87.6%93.5%88.0%
52
California14Jackie Speier(D)2007.578.3%-0.2%2.5%-5.9%-1.2%-0.69%2.81%80.4%DSafe DSafe D78.1%75.8%72.4%76.7%
53
California15Eric Swalwell(D)201271.8%-0.8%1.8%0.5%-0.14%2.81%74.5%DSafe DSafe D71.0%68.9%102.5%0.0%
54
California16Jim Costa(D)200459.8%-4.5%-7.8%-8.8%-7.0%-5.12%2.81%57.4%No projectionSafe DLikely D55.3%49.9%50.9%51.0%
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California17Rho Khanna(D)201675.7%0.00%0.50%76.1%DSafe DSafe D103.8%100.0%73.5%67.6%
56
California18Anna Eshoo(D)199275.6%-7.2%-0.8%-11.6%-6.5%-5.77%2.81%72.6%DSafe DSafe D68.4%66.9%64.0%70.6%
57
California19Zoe Lofgren(D)199474.7%-3.5%-7.9%-5.7%-3.90%2.81%73.6%DSafe DSafe D71.2%99.1%66.7%72.9%
58
California20Jimmy Panetta(D)201672.6%-1.3%-1.3%-0.19%0.50%72.9%DSafe DSafe D71.3%100.0%74.1%69.1%
59
California21David Valadao(R)201256.7%9.6%6.7%16.5%10.9%-8.86%-2.81%45.0%No projectionLean RLean R52.9%53.2%59.8%0.0%
60
California22Devin Nunes(R)200244.2%8.0%7.9%3.6%6.5%-6.01%-2.81%35.4%RSafe RSafe R63.8%67.4%59.4%91.7%
61
California23Kevin McCarthy(R)200638.0%3.3%5.5%4.4%-3.29%-2.81%31.9%RSafe RSafe R65.4%70.2%97.5%91.7%
62
California24Salud Carbajal(D)201659.1%-5.1%-5.1%-0.77%0.50%58.8%No projectionSafe DSafe D53.9%51.9%55.1%60.6%
63
California25Steve Knight(R)201452.3%1.6%1.6%-1.39%-2.81%48.1%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up49.3%98.1%0.0%0.0%
64
California26Julia Brownley(D)201259.9%-2.3%-2.7%-9.2%-4.7%-3.20%2.81%59.5%No projectionSafe DSafe D57.6%50.5%50.7%0.0%
65
California27Judy Chu(D)200967.8%-3.1%-3.3%-10.3%-5.6%-3.90%2.81%66.7%DSafe DSafe D64.6%58.5%57.5%70.3%
66
California28Adam Schiff(D)200073.9%1.4%-3.9%-1.3%0.04%2.81%76.7%DSafe DSafe D75.2%99.1%70.0%66.2%
67
California29Tony Cardenas(D)201279.4%-2.5%-2.5%-2.16%2.81%80.0%DSafe DSafe D97.2%73.7%98.0%0.0%
68
California30Brad Sherman(D)198270.7%-0.8%0.1%-0.3%-0.48%2.81%73.0%DSafe DSafe D69.9%64.8%93.5%74.9%
69
California31Pete Aguilar(D)201459.5%-6.2%-2.7%-4.5%-4.53%2.81%57.8%No projectionSafe DLikely D53.3%53.6%0.0%0.0%
70
California32Grace Napolitano(D)199868.4%-5.6%-9.2%-7.4%-6.29%2.81%64.9%DSafe DSafe D97.2%58.8%59.2%72.8%
71
California33Ted Lieu(D)201469.6%-5.9%1.2%-2.4%-3.54%2.81%68.9%DSafe DSafe D63.7%61.1%0.0%0.0%
72
California34Jimmy Gomez(D)199285.4%-6.3%-6.3%-5.34%2.81%82.9%DSafe DSafe D97.2%99.1%79.1%83.1%
73
California35Norma Torres(D)201469.4%0.3%0.3%0.22%2.81%72.4%DSafe DSafe D69.6%101.9%0.0%0.0%
74
California36Raul Ruiz(D)201253.4%5.9%3.7%2.1%3.9%4.00%2.81%60.2%DSafe DSafe D59.3%53.3%55.4%0.0%
75
California37Karen Bass(D)201087.0%-0.7%-7.1%-3.9%-3.32%2.81%86.5%DSafe DSafe D97.2%83.4%79.9%89.9%
76
California38Linda Sanchez(D)200268.8%-1.1%-5.8%-7.7%-4.8%-2.83%2.81%68.7%DSafe DSafe D67.7%58.2%61.0%65.3%
77
California39Ed Royce(R)199253.3%6.7%10.1%8.5%8.4%-6.57%-2.81%43.9%No projectionSafe RLikely R53.4%63.9%55.3%58.5%
78
California40
Lucille Roybal-Allard
(D)199283.7%N/A2.81%86.5%DSafe DSafe D97.2%99.1%93.5%76.5%
79
California41Mark Takano(D)201262.9%-0.7%-4.9%-5.9%-3.8%-2.21%2.81%63.5%DSafe DSafe D62.2%55.8%57.0%0.0%
80
California42Ken Calvert(R)199243.0%-2.0%1.6%1.0%0.2%0.59%-2.81%40.7%RSafe RSafe R55.0%61.1%58.1%47.3%
81
California43Maxine Waters(D)199079.8%-6.5%-6.9%-6.7%-5.62%2.81%77.0%DSafe DSafe D73.3%70.1%93.5%78.6%
82
California44
Nanette Diaz Barragan
(D)201684.3%0.00%0.50%84.8%DSafe DSafe D100.5%100.0%100.0%0.0%
83
California45Mimi Walters(R)201451.7%6.4%5.4%5.9%-5.22%-2.81%43.6%No projectionSafe RLikely R54.8%63.2%0.0%0.0%
84
California46Lou Correa(D)201668.2%0.00%0.50%68.6%DSafe DSafe D100.5%59.7%63.9%57.4%
85
California47Alan Lowenthal(D)201264.8%-3.8%-4.2%-10.2%-6.1%-4.38%2.81%63.2%DSafe DSafe D60.9%55.1%54.6%0.0%
86
California48
Dana Rohrabacher
(R)198849.8%4.3%1.6%8.3%4.7%-3.89%-2.81%43.1%RSafe RLikely R54.5%59.5%58.5%53.9%
87
California49Darrell Issa(R)200052.7%-0.8%0.2%8.4%2.6%-1.03%-2.81%48.9%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up46.5%55.5%55.7%58.3%
88
California50Duncan D. Hunter(R)200841.5%1.1%3.2%6.6%3.6%-2.23%-2.81%36.4%RSafe RSafe R59.7%66.5%65.2%58.0%
89
California51Juan Vargas(D)201273.5%-3.5%-0.4%-4.0%-2.6%-2.51%2.81%73.7%DSafe DSafe D70.0%67.9%69.5%0.0%
90
California52Scott Peters(D)201260.2%-6.5%-0.5%-6.5%-4.5%-4.49%2.81%58.5%No projectionSafe DSafe D53.7%50.7%53.7%0.0%
91
California53Susan Davis(D)200066.4%-2.2%-2.6%-11.5%-5.4%-3.49%2.81%65.7%DSafe DSafe D64.2%58.0%54.9%64.0%
92
Colorado1Diana DeGette(D)199671.9%-3.6%0.4%-6.5%-3.2%-2.88%2.81%71.8%DSafe DSafe D68.2%68.6%65.3%69.4%
93
Colorado2
Open Seat (Jared Polis)
(D)200859.6%-1.9%-1.4%-7.0%N/A0.00%59.6%DSafe DSafe D57.7%55.9%52.6%59.5%
94
Colorado3Scott Tipton(R)201043.0%-3.3%2.3%-3.0%-1.4%1.84%-2.81%42.0%RSafe RSafe R53.7%57.2%54.0%53.0%
95
Colorado4Ken Buck(R)201437.4%0.4%5.4%2.9%-1.36%-2.81%33.2%RSafe RSafe R63.0%67.0%0.0%0.0%
96
Colorado5Doug Lamborn(R)200637.0%0.0%-7.2%-3.6%1.52%-2.81%35.7%RSafe RSafe R63.1%55.1%97.5%60.9%
97
Colorado6Mike Coffman(R)200853.4%4.0%0.6%2.0%2.2%-2.50%-2.81%48.1%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up50.6%50.0%48.6%59.3%
98
Colorado7Ed Perlmutter(D)200655.0%0.4%-1.2%-4.7%-1.9%-0.82%2.81%56.9%DSafe DLikely D55.3%54.2%50.2%55.4%
99
Connecticut1John Larson(D)199860.5%2.2%0.9%4.5%2.6%2.07%2.81%65.4%DSafe DSafe D62.7%62.5%65.0%61.5%
100
Connecticut2Joe Courtney(D)200650.4%12.1%8.3%13.0%11.1%9.78%2.81%63.0%DSafe DSafe D62.5%62.8%63.4%60.0%
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