Hearthstone Probabilities
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Opening hand probabilitiesThese are the probabilities of having at least one copy of a certain card in your hand on the early turns when you are mulliganning aggressively for the card. Note that number of copies does not have to be 1 or 2; for example you can use 5 if you have 5 one-mana drops and would like to see your chances of having at least one on turn 1.
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Number of copies in deck: 2
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Going first
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Probability in hand on turn 1:0.4125159642
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Probability in hand on turn 2:0.4577070439
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Probability in hand on turn 3:0.5010904804
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Going second
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Probability in hand on turn 1:0.5098143236
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Probability in hand on turn 2:0.5490291777
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Probability in hand on turn 3:0.5866100796
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Probabilities of drawing into a card This is a simple calculator to find the probability of having seen a card at a certain point in the game. It can be useful for figuring out problems related to mana-curve; for example how likely you are to have one of your 4 six-drops in your hand having seen 15 cards. Note that this calculation cannot be done based on the turn number because different decks will see a different number of cards based on mulligans and card draw.
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Number of copies in deck: 2
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Number of cards seen: 19
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Probability of having seen card:#NAME?
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Probabilities of having combosThese are probabilities for how likely you are to have combos in your hand at certain points in the game. Only 2 card combos are included since 3 card+ combos in Hearthstone are unrealistic and have negligible probabilities.
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1 copy + 1 copy
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Number of cards seen:12
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Probability of having combo:0.1517241379
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1 copy + 2 copies
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Number of cards seen:12
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Probability of having combo:#NAME?
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2 copies + 2 copies
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Number of cards seen:16
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Probability of having combo:#NAME?
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